[QA] Why do you feel you have to defend Pandas all the time...?

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Oct 8, 2011.

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  1. Sundsvall

    Sundsvall New Member

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    Pandas are clearly not just "bullion" anymore.

    The chinese collecting population combined with their new found wealth has exalted many Pandas to the collectable art status.

    Collectors around the world have since joined in.

    Regular Silver bullion coins serves to hedge against inflation. But as Yennus points out, an ounce of Silver bullion can only be traded for an ounce of Silver bullion in the future.

    A one ounce Silver Panda's have the opportunity to return many ounces of silver due to appreciation.

    You can decide that its too risky a gamble, or you can decide you want to pay for the opportunity.

    Only you can decide how much you are willing to pay for that opportunity.

    Finally, the opportunity is just that. There are no guarantees.

    The Silver Panda market could crash down to its silver value or it can crash through the roof.

    For me its a good opportunity. There are many pandas at many different price points, so there are a variety of strategies for one to speculate upon.
     
  2. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    It's not an Australian thing, there are plenty of Australians who are open minded to collecting pandas and numismatics. The market here however, is quite tiny compared to the US and China and Germany of course.

    I agree entirely that Australian numismatics are light years behind overseas, the coin fairs here feature no Pandas or any Chinese modern coin series.

    In fact, the ones I've been to mostly feature local coins and were rather unexciting, rather go to the SydneyStackers meet :)

    The main point getting overlooked is that people consider melt value as an important basis of coin worth and think that Pandas equate a Ponzi style "Greater Fool" paradigm.

    However I can say for certain this is not the case. This 1930 penny goes to show melt value doesn't mean much when it comes to numismatics. Surely it is something that is good to have but not necessary.

    I don't collect the 1930 penny, in fact I know almost nothing about it and personally I think paying thousands of dollars for that coin is ...... However, I don't feel the need to mock or denigrate people who buy it though because they clearly have weighed their risks and came to the conclusion that it is worthwhile as a potential investment.

    I observed that Pandas are in very high demand even on here. I have had plenty of messages to ship thousands of dollars worth of Pandas overseas but have respectfully declined most of them due to bank wire fees and extremely expensive shipping (we get ripped here!). I can also attest that Pandas are in high demand in China and Hong Kong since I have plenty of contacts over there who tell me the same thing. These collectors basically don't care about spot price, they would gladly pay me 10x spot price or more if I had a coin they wanted.

    Australian coins are getting better, I personally like the 2011 Koalas but there is no question the demand is not as big as modern Chinese coins. Speaking of useless American coins, I have proof libertads and proof ASEs which are barely worth $60. Bah!

    I collect many many many different coins from all around the world, from different mints, and so on and I can say for certain nothing matches the Pandas in potential. Not even close.

    So most certainly I agree with you, Australia can't match these coins and it's not remotely surprising.

    I don't think the whole 'business interest' thing was targeted at you but more at yennus because he is a relatively large Panda seller in Australia and is also the main driving force behind Pandas over here.

    However I think that commenting on yennus and his business interests has nothing to do with Pandas or numismatics and is counter productive.

    We all know that the Panda market is larger than yennus and larger than silverstackers.com and the prices for coins are all available to check on eBay, pricepedia or one of the many many websites that sell pandas.

    yennus doesn't need to 'justify' his prices with graphs of future potential, the market price is out there for all to see if they research it.

    Anyway, this thread has turned to shit fast. We should all just go back to stacking whatever we want :)
     
  3. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't think that it is being overlooked, I just think that most on this forum are here for the primary purpose of "stacking" as much Silver as they can. The fact remains that if Silver rises to the $100+ per ounce level that many on here believe then ALL Silver bullion coins will rise with it. Not every numismatic coin will rise by an equivalent %.
    The 2010 Lunar Tiger is currently outperforming the 2010 Panda.

    A quick check of eBay suggests that the:
    2001 Snake is outperforming the 2001 Panda
    2002 Horse is outperforming the 2002 Panda
    2003 Goat is pretty much neck and neck with 2003 Panda

    I could keep going, but this is only from a few eBay results, so unsure if it is representative of the market in general...

    For the most part it looks that Panda's have to be slabbed to outperform their straight capsuled Lunar counterparts.
    Many on this forum have strong opinions and express them in this way. None that I have seen in this thread have used their title as any sort of "superior complex" manner, can you provide an example? What would you suggest, that members with specific titles simply don't have an opinion or post in threads they have an interest in?? :rolleyes:
     
  4. goldpelican

    goldpelican Administrator Staff Member

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    That would be me - the creator of this forum, and the person who set up the Panda forum at yennus' suggestion. I stand by the statement I made in the single post I had in this thread.

    It's caused confusion several times in the past on the forum, and with no offence to yennus, he is the only person I know on the forum who quotes the premium of a coin as being a premium over the cost of another coin rather than being a premium over spot.

    Right now on Gainesville:

    Spot $31.25
    ASE individually: $35.50 - 13.6% over spot
    Panda individually: $38.50 - 23.2% over spot, 8.5% more than ASE

    ASE by the monster box: $34.63ea - 10.8% over spot
    Panda by the monster box: $38ea - 21.6% over spot, 9.7% more than ASE

    If you're going to compare them to other forms of silver, just quote the bloody things over spot.

    Obviously people are approaching this from bullion vs numismatics perspectives - but seriously guys, build a bridge and get over it, I doubt there's more than 1 person on this forum if any who bought 1991 pandas with a mintage of 100,000 back in 1991 at issue price, so "my silver's bigger than yours" arguments over which coin has performed better (i.e. the limited mintage single year design coin vs loose bullion that hasn't changed design in 25 years) is pointless, and brings down the tone of the forum.

    Everyone buys silver for different reasons - there are plenty of people who will always chase maximum ounces and not buy bars under a kilo (or bigger) because they don't want to pay more than 1-2% premium to maximise their ounces, and there will always be people that will never buy anything other than 1oz legal tender coins because they're chasing numismatic premiums and believe the premium growth will outstrip the price of silver. Then there's plenty of people that do BOTH - a pile of bars, and dabble in coins for numismatic gain.

    But seriously, this Panda vs ASE argument is ridiculous. Buy Pandas and be happy that they will (likely) outperform other 1oz coins, or don't .
     
  5. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    Guys,

    I agree with you Pandaphiles that their track record so far has been stellar and that so far they are the best performing Gov minted coins in the world.

    and that they could probably continue to rise in value in the future as well.

    I agree.

    I am just saying that some of them already sell a lot over spot ( and correct who am i to say that it is too expensive ) but when something is 100% over spot than one day it could only cost 20% over spot
    and than that would be money/oz lost.


    other thing is that this is the Silver Stackers forum, and the mindset of the typical member is 85% to get as much liquid bullion as possible and the remaining 15% is afforded for the occasional Lunar, Panda, Crown, etc

    I dont understand why you keep mentioning the 1930 Penny, to my knowledge there were only 8 minted in that year and millions and millions have been minted in the years around that.

    and on another note, you keep refering to numismatics - well Pandas and Lunars and most of the
    modern coins are pseudo-numismatic - the dies are still there and more can be minted.
    Numismatics are older coins - early 20th cent, 19th cent, 18th Cent,...Medieval Europe, old Hammered coinage, grecoroman coins etc.

    My central message once again, is that if something is 100% over spot - than it is more likely to be
    80% over spot 2 years from now than 120% over spot 2 years from now - and of course i can be wrong.
     
  6. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Of course there's always a downside risk involved in any investment, even with Silver you are risking your hard earned money in hopes that it will go up in price. I always advocate research and DYODD when investing and I completely agree with you there is a possibility of Pandas becoming worth less than they are selling for now.

    And that is exactly what I do, bullion + pandas on the side as well as any other coins that tickle my fancy. I personally don't believe that having 10 ounces of modern numismatic coins would make me that much more worse off than if I had 30 ounces of bullion.

    To show that melt value does not always matter when considering a numismatic purchase. There are plenty of copper coins from China dating back to the Qing Dynasty or further which net at least 5000x their metal value because they are sought after. They aren't all that old either, under 100 years for sure.

    No it's not. The probability of price direction is something neither of us can determine and none is more likely or less likely than the other at this point in time. (Provided we are looking at it objectively, I have formed biases as to prices in the future so from my perspective, it is likely they will appreciate and from your perspective they will depreciate, however there is no way to determine which is more likely from an unbiased POV)

    I believe past performance is not an indicator of future performance but at the same time, in comparison to other modern Chinese coin series the Pandas are extremely undervalued which is what I base my Panda investment strategy on.
     
  7. ozcopper

    ozcopper Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Mintage of the 1930 penny is about 3,000. Coins with super low mintage's like under 20, don't become as sought after in many cases because most people know they have no chance of getting one.
     
  8. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeah, just checked in Kruase and the mintage is est 3000 - it is the Proof version which is around 6 that i confused.
    Sorry
    :)
     
  9. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Here's some information about Chinese modern numismatics THUCY

    http://www.cghka.com/english/pwm1_3_2.asp?id=63

    These are the auction results from Jan 2011, you can have a look at them yourself for fun :)

    This is the chinese lunar platinum set: http://www.cghka.com/english/pwm1_2_1.asp?id=40755&type=wlyz&pos=557

    $218500 US! No joke, serious stuff. This is why I think Pandas are undervalued, but regardless still an interesting site.

    http://www.cghka.com/english/pwm1_3_2.asp?id=73

    ^ that's the latest one from August 2011 results. Some stunning auctions, millions dollars worth of coins.

    http://www.cghka.com/english/pwm1_3_2.asp?id=73&ToPage=73

    Item 2020, the lunar 15g Silver proof set, $10,000 US+ ... makes pandas look cheap!
     
  10. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I appreciate the change in tone in your latest message. Many thanks!

    Indeed, I concur that the Panda " track record so far has been stellar and that so far they are the best performing Gov minted coins in the world. and that they could probably continue to rise in value in the future as well..."

    I would like you to provide evidence for this assertion. Stats and figures are highly valued. Many thanks to Fishball for providing his stats and figures and links :) Many thanks to ozcopper also, I'm a big fan of that 1930 penny.

    In 2007, the standard 2000 Frosted Panda BU was valued at 880RMB (approx. $146). Today it is valued at over $500 (even more for NGC coins). Growth of 3.42 times.
    In 2007, the standard ASE was about $18. Today it is valued about $39. Growth of 2.16 times.

    So yes, many of the expensive coins have demonstrated their ability to appreciate faster than spot and standard bullion.
     
  11. 940palmtx

    940palmtx New Member

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    There is obviously a vast difference in prices between North American and Australian markets.
    The conclusion that Aussies pay more for Perth Lunars than anyone else in the world should be no surprise. Nor should it be a surprise that the N.A. market pays more for Pandas than Lunars

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2001-1-Aust...pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3cbc503ed12001
    2001 Snake $77 Free shipping

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2001-China-...503?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2c5f72843f
    2001 Panda $99 Free shipping

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2002-AUSTRA...991?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43a9f710a7
    2002 Horse $76 + $4.97 shipping

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2002-SILVER...279?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item1e671cb43f
    2002 Panda $88.77 + $3.25 shipping

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2003-Austra...164?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3a6aae41c4
    2003 Goat $68 Free shipping

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2003-China-...686?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item5d305fc6b6
    2003 Panda $122.49 Free shipping
     
  12. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Actually from my observations, Europeans will pay more for Lunars than anyone else in the world.

    2001 Snake = AUD$145 inc post - http://www.ebay.de/itm/Australia-Ra...3029?pt=UK_Coins_World_RL&hash=item35b5704ef5
    2002 horse = AUD $143 inc post - http://www.ebay.de/itm/1oz-Silver-2...80730562445?pt=AU_Bullion&hash=item2a1461878d
    2003 Goat = AUD $126 inc post - http://www.ebay.de/itm/Australia-Ra...3281?pt=UK_Coins_World_RL&hash=item35b5707701


    The limiting thing on the auctions you have used is that by the looks a majority (all?) are shipping only to the US... pretty limiting. The coin collecting community isn't limited to 1 continent last time I checked, nor should it be centered around 1.

    I think what we can take from this is that Pandas outperform Lunars in some markets and in others Lunars outperform Pandas. If Lunars are outperforming Pandas in Australia then coin collectors in Australia should take this onboard and make decisions based around their local market.
     
  13. 940palmtx

    940palmtx New Member

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    One of the biggest misconceptions is by the people who consider Lunars, ASE's, Pandas and others as 'bullion' They are most certainly not.
    The Gold Bullion Coin Act of 1985 (Public Law 99-185 of Dec. 17, 1985, 99 Statutes At Large 1177, 31 USC 5101, 5111, 5112) provided for minting the American Eagle ounce, half ounce, quarter ounce, and tenth ounce gold coins. Section 2(3) provides, "For purposes of section 5132(a)(1) of [Title 31], all coins minted under this subsection shall be considered to be numismatic items."
    The Liberty Coin Act of July 9, 1985 (Public Law 99-61 of 7/9/85, 99 Stat. 115, 31 USC 5112) authorized the one ounce silver coin commonly called the Silver American Eagle. At section 202(g) it contains identical language.
    By statutory definition then, the American Eagle gold coins and the silver American Eagles are "numismatic" coins. (31 USC Section 5132(a)(1) requires the Secretary of the Treasury to apply proceeds from selling "numismatic" items to cost of making them.)
    The debate between buying bullion or numismatics has raged long before SS was even an idea in GP's head and will rage on long after SS is a distant memory, that's assuming GP gets fed up ith us one day LOL
    Buyers of both assume risk. Buyers of bullion take lower risk, but settle for lower reward.
    Buyers of numismatics take greater risk for greater rewards.
    I buy both and could make a compelling case for buying both IMO. What we need, is to respect each other's investment decisions. The SHTF crowd assumes we'll be trading silver for bread, which one day we might, and I emphasize MIGHT. Remember Y2K? We were definitely going to be trading silver for bread according to some.
    Pure bullion buyers love to talk about what might happen as do numismatic buyers, but, if you look at what HAS happened, then the Numis win. It's not an opinion, it's not speculation, it's a fact. Many numismatics, including Pandas have outperformed silver. Just look at recent trends, bullion stackers lost over 25% of their 'stack's' value whilst numismatic collectors lost next to nothing. If a bullion collectors most compelling argument is that you'll be able to buy an equal amount of bread with a generic round as someone with a small date Panda, then you really don't have a leg to stand on, much less a soapbox UNTIL SHTF, then run your head ;)
     
  14. 940palmtx

    940palmtx New Member

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    I meant to imply that, sorry.
     
  15. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Also noticed you missed the 2010 Panda vs 2010 Tiger comparison. The claim from comeaux was that all Pandas are exceeding their Lunar counterparts, but the Panda mintages only started to significantly rise the last couple of years, so we are yet to see how they perform with the mintage 10x and more some of the earlier years...
     
  16. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You talk about misconceptions and then start some of your own.

    What has happened is that bullion has outperformed numismatics for the duration of the last 10 years (if you don't cherry pick some specific numismatic coins to use in the comparison). If you took an ultra short term time frame of the last 6 months then you might argue numismatics as a whole have outperformed Silver (not Gold) bullion, but then that's just a ridiculous argument to make.

    The PCGS3000 (probably the most respected numismatic index around?) shows a 26% increase over the last 10 years vs roughly 600% for Silver and Gold. http://pcgs.tv/prices/Graph.aspx?range=10 years&filename=index

    So while some very specific numismatics might have outperformed bullion, you would have had to have picked well to exceed the gains of bullion based on this numismatic index.
     
  17. 940palmtx

    940palmtx New Member

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    That is a good point regarding the increased mintages. I don't think there's really a debate as to world demand for Pandas over Lunars, only if the superior demand will compensate for the increased supply. I'm not convinced yet that the 2012 panda will be worth more than a 2012 Dragon. But I haven't seen anyone advocate buying 2012 pandas over dragons, soooo...yeah

    And you're right about the 2010, but that will change before long here. Only 1 person bid on the Tiger below and only 2 people bid on the next lowest priced Tiger, whereas 10 people bid on the Panda below.
    I'm reminded of an ole saying
    "Even a blind dog finds a bone now and then"

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2010-AUSTRA...642?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2567f1b0d2

    2010 Tiger $56 + 2.84 shipping

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2010-1-Oz-C...085?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3f0e7e789d

    2010 Panda $48 + 2 shipping
     
  18. 940palmtx

    940palmtx New Member

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    So what? What about the last 50 years or last 2 years or last 6 months or last 3 days? We're talking now. Are you going on record that PMs are going to increase 600% in the next 10 years?
    You're just as guilty of cherry picking by using the PCGS3000 going back a decade to try and support your point. The only thing "ridiculous" IMO is putting all your investment eggs in one basket, be they bullion or numismatics or PMs in general.
     
  19. 940palmtx

    940palmtx New Member

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    Not to mention you lack either the objectivity or motivation to promote anything other than bullion since your link site only links to bullion. The epitome of bias and to claim otherwise would indeed be ridiculous :)
     
  20. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Bullion has outperformed the PCGS3000 over the last:
    1 years
    2 year
    3 years
    4 years
    5 years
    10 years
    15 years
    20 years
    etc

    I am not cherry picking. You are if you are suggesting that 'numismatics perform better than bullion' though.

    I don't invest on with a 6 month horizon in mind, so the fact that Pandas or other numismatic coins have held their ground while Silver has corrected is of little relevance to me.

    I am not suggesting that we will see another 600% rise in 10 years. I am saying that for the duration of the precious metals bull market, the underlying metal prices will continue to outperform the numismatic market as a whole.

    You then belittle the bullion stackers argument by suggesting that those collecting Silver for maximum ounces are predominantly doing so to exchange it for bread, when the reality is that most are probably stacking more ounces because they have been and will probably continue to exceed the gains of the numismatics market by doing so (for the time being).
     
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