NRL Punting Thread

Game 40 - Bulldogs vs Raiders

Raiders +6 Match Handicap : 2 units @ 1.92
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 1.5 units @ 2.05
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 1 unit @ 10.00
Blake Austin 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 19.00
Blake Austin Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 19.00
 
Game 40 Results :-

Raiders +6 Match Handicap : 2 units @ 1.92 = +1.84
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 1.5 units @ 2.05 =+1.575
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 1 unit @ 10.00 = -1
Blake Austin 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 19.00 = -0.5
Blake Austin Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 19.00 = -0.5

Game 40 Total = +1.415 units

Lucky to jag the Unders bet, but in the rain I thought it'd be closer. Huge win for the Raiders was a surprise. :o
 
Round 5 Summary :-

Manly vs Souths = +3.94
Titans vs Brisbane = -2.1
Melbourne vs Newcastle = +6.04
Tigers vs Sharks = +6.875
Cowboys vs Dragons = -5.5
Roosters vs Warriors = +0.475
Parramatta vs Penrith = -0.5
Bulldogs vs Canberra = +1.415

NRL Round 5 Total = +10.645 units

Total Units Bet = 47
Return On Investment (ROI) = +22.6%

Bets Won / Placed = 15/38
Strike Rate (SR) = 39.5%

1. Still making losses on Titans and Parramatta despite my review of those teams. Next step is to wind stakes down for those teams matches until confidence returns.

2. After a fast paced start to the season the games are slowing back down with more frequent and longer stoppages. In the first 2 rounds only 43% of games were decided by under 12.5 points with average 41.81 points scored. In the 3 rounds since a significant 75% of games were decided by under 12.5 points with average 37.79 points scored. I may have been premature in winding back the 1-12 winning margin option and Unders bets could now be good value.

3. The value in the Penalty Goal option in 1st Scoring Play markets has dried up. I was frequently able to get 11.00+ on penalty goals in the early rounds but now I'm lucky to find 9.00 and many bookies have slashed down to 5.00-6.00 for teams like Brisbane and Dragons. It's getting harder....
 
Breaking News

Telegraph today reports that the Parramatta Eels are expected to lose up to 10 competition points due to the salary cap scandal. Most bookies have suspended betting on Parramatta to "Miss The 8" but I was able to cash out my Top 8 futures bet at a price of about 1.71 - which is a bit of an ordinary price, but not worth the risk of holding at the moment.

So my futures bet on Parramatta now results as :-

Parramatta Eels to Make The Top 8 : 40 units @ 2.00 (CASHED OUT @ 1.71) = +6.6 units
 
Game 41 - Brisbane vs Dragons

Under 18.5 1st Half Points : 3 units @ 1.90
Dragons +7.5 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.90
Brisbane 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.35
Jason Nightingale 1st Tryscorer Dragons : 0.5 unit @ 6.00
Corey Oates 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 8.00
 
Game 41 Results :-

Under 18.5 1st Half Points : 3 units @ 1.90 = +2.7
Dragons +7.5 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.90 = -2
Brisbane 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.35 = -1
Jason Nightingale 1st Tryscorer Dragons : 0.5 unit @ 6.00 = -0.5
Corey Oates 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 8.00 = +3.5

Game 41 Total = +2.7 units

I was happy to see Marshall benched, but otherwise it was pretty much a replay of last weeks Dragons vs Cowboys. Very dissappointing. :(
 
Game 42 - Souths vs Roosters

Under 40 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.90
Tribet - Either Team 0-6 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.15
Shaun Kenny-Dowall 1st Tryscorer Roosters : 1 unit @ 5.00
Roosters / Souths Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 7.80
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
Chris Grevsmuhl 1st Tryscorer : 0.2 unit @ 25
Cameron McInnes 1st Tryscorer : 0.2 unit @ 34.00
 
Game 42 Results :-

Under 40 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.90 = +2.7
Tribet - Either Team 0-6 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.15 = -1
Shaun Kenny-Dowall 1st Tryscorer Roosters : 1 unit @ 5.00 = -1
Roosters / Souths Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 7.80 = -0.5
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5
Chris Grevsmuhl 1st Tryscorer : 0.2 unit @ 25 = -0.2
Cameron McInnes 1st Tryscorer : 0.2 unit @ 34.00 = -0.2

Game 42 Total = -0.7 units

Bummer. Missed the Tribet by half a point. Souths are looking tired and it's only Round 6. Starting to get nervous about my Top 4 futures bet on them :/
 
Game 43 - Parramatta vs Canberra

Parramatta Try 1st Scoring Play : 2 units @ 2.05
Parramatta / Parramatta Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 2.20
Parramatta 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.15
Blake Austin 1st Tryscorer Canberra : 1 unit @ 8.95
 
Game 44 - Warriors vs Manly

Over 42.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.00
Manly Win Match : 2 units @ 2.85
Manly Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 2.75
Apisai Koroisau To Score a Try : 1 unit @ 6.30
Manly / Warriors Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.00
 
Game 45 - Penrith vs Cowboys

Cowboys -1.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 2 units @ 1.90
Under 18 Points 1st Half : 1.5 units @ 2.00
Penrith / Cowboys Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.45
Gavin Cooper 1st Tryscorer Cowboys : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
Penrith Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 13.00
 
Game 43 Results :-

Parramatta Try 1st Scoring Play : 2 units @ 2.05 = +2.1
Parramatta / Parramatta Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 2.20 = +2.4
Parramatta 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.15 = -1
Blake Austin 1st Tryscorer Canberra : 1 unit @ 8.95 = +7.95

Game 43 Total = +11.45 units

Blake Austin bombed an easy try early, but always looked like he was going to get one today and I got him at a great price too! :p


Game 44 Results :-

Over 42.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.00 = +2
Manly Win Match : 2 units @ 2.85 = +3.7
Manly Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 2.75 = +1.75
Apisai Koroisau To Score a Try : 1 unit @ 6.30 = -1
Manly / Warriors Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.00 = -0.5

Game 44 Total = +5.95 units

Classic Warriors performance. I just love betting against them when they're expected to win. They are mental bro! :D


Game 45 Results :-

Cowboys -1.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Under 18 Points 1st Half : 1.5 units @ 2.00 = -1.5
Penrith / Cowboys Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.45 = -0.5
Gavin Cooper 1st Tryscorer Cowboys : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -1.5
Penrith Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 13.00 = -0.5

Game 45 Total = -1.2 units

Wasn't too far off here. Had the momentum swing right with Penrith up 10-0 and Cowboys coming over the top, but it swung at about the 25 min mark instead of at half time. Cooper got a try but not the 1st for Cowboys. :/
 
Game 46 - Sharks vs Titans

Over 43.5 Match Points : 4 units @ 1.95
Ben Barba To Score A Try : 2 units @ 2.15
Chad Townsend To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 3.50
Sharks -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.00
 
Game 47 - Newcastle vs Tigers

Newcastle Over 10.5 2nd Half Points : 3 units @ 1.99
Newcastle Win Match : 1 unit @ 2.03
Sam Mataora To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 9.45
Tigers / Newcastle Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.85
Tariq Sims To Score A Try : 0.5 unit @ 3.60
 
Game 46 Results :-

Over 43.5 Match Points : 4 units @ 1.95 = +3.8
Ben Barba To Score A Try : 2 units @ 2.15 = +2.3
Chad Townsend To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 3.50 = -1
Sharks -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.00 = -1

Game 46 Total = +4.1 units

Sharks were looking really good until Maloney and Lewis went off. They still aren't an 80 minute team but happy to get a good win on 2 teams I've had poor form with recently. :)


Game 47 Results :-

Newcastle Over 10.5 2nd Half Points : 3 units @ 1.99 = -3
Newcastle Win Match : 1 unit @ 2.03 = +1.03
Sam Mataora To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 9.45 = -1
Tigers / Newcastle Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.85 = -0.5
Tariq Sims To Score A Try : 0.5 unit @ 3.60 = -0.5

Game 47 Total = -3.97 units

Gritty effort from Newcastle but denied the late try I needed for my Overs bet. I'll take the result though as Tigers should now be firming up for the spoon. :p
 
Game 48 - Melbourne vs Bulldogs

Bulldogs +0.5 Handicap 1st Half : 3 units @ 1.95
Melbourne Under 19.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.85
Bulldogs / Bulldogs Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 3.85
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 9.00
Curtis Rona 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.50
 
Game 48 Results :-

Bulldogs +0.5 Handicap 1st Half : 3 units @ 1.95 = +2.85
Melbourne Under 19.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.85 = +1.7
Bulldogs / Bulldogs Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 3.85 = +2.85
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 9.00 = -0.5
Curtis Rona 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.50 = -0.5

Game 48 Total = +6.4 units

Two professional teams that rarely dissappoint. Both are big Top 4 chances.
 
Round 6 Summary :-

Brisbane vs Dragons = +2.7
Souths vs Roosters = -0.7
Parramatta vs Canberra = +11.45
Warriors vs Manly = +5.95
Penrith vs Cowboys = -1.2
Sharks vs Titans = +4.1
Newcastle vs Tigers = -3.97
Melbourne vs Bulldogs = +6.4

NRL Round 6 Total = +24.73 units

Total Units Bet = 51.9
Return On Investment (ROI) = +47.6%

Bets Won / Placed = 16/40
Strike Rate (SR) = 40%

Notes from Round 6 :-

1. Good strike rate on Overs/Unders bets this week hitting 5 out of 7 reinforcing the March decision to up ante on this market type.

2. A couple of good hits on tryscorer options boosted me over the top this week for a better than usual result. Put this weeks result down to good luck as it's hard to consistently repeat good tryscorer hits.
 
Game 49 - Manly vs Parramatta

Manly +1.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 2 units @ 1.90
Under 35.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.05
Tribet - Either Team 0-6 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 2.75
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 9.00
Parramatta / Manly Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 9.40
Brett Stewart Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 12.00
 
Game 49 Results :-

Manly +1.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 2 units @ 1.90 = -2
Under 35.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.05 = +2.1
Tribet - Either Team 0-6 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 2.75 = -1
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 9.00 = +4
Parramatta / Manly Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 9.40 = -0.5
Brett Stewart Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 12.00 = -0.5

Game 49 Total = +2.1 units

Everything was sweet at the 69th minute with Manly up 10-8...and then Parra scores 3 tries to blow the game open and kill 2 of my bets. Was lucky to hold onto a profit. :mad:
 
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