NRL Punting Thread

Game 27 - Canberra vs Titans

Over 47.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.00
Over 10.5 Titans Points 2nd Half : 2 units @ 2.10
Iosia Soliola To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.50
Over 0.5 40/20 Kicked : 0.5 unit @ 4.50
Titans 13+ Winning Margin : 0.5 unit @ 7.00
Canberra / Titans Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 10.50
 
Game 28 - Roosters vs Manly

Over 39.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.88
Shaun Kenny-Dowall To Score a Try : 1.5 units @ 2.25
Roosters Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 2.40
Roosters 13+ Winning Margin : 0.5 unit @ 6.10
Manly / Roosters Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
 
Game 27 Result :-

Over 47.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.00 = -2
Over 10.5 Titans Points 2nd Half : 2 units @ 2.10 = +2.2
Iosia Soliola To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.50 = -1
Over 0.5 40/20 Kicked : 0.5 unit @ 4.50 = -0.5
Titans 13+ Winning Margin : 0.5 unit @ 7.00 = -0.5
Canberra / Titans Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 10.50 = +5

Game 27 Total = +3.2 units

What a crazy finish to an otherwise ordinary game. Glad to finally break my Titans hoodoo and land my 1st decent HT / FT bet of the season. :D


Game 28 Result :-

Over 39.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.88 = +1.76
Shaun Kenny-Dowall To Score a Try : 1.5 units @ 2.25 = +1.875
Roosters Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 2.40 = -1
Roosters 13+ Winning Margin : 0.5 unit @ 6.10 = -0.5
Manly / Roosters Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5

Game 28 Total = +1.635 units

SKD gets 2 tries and almost wins the game single handed. Got the HT / FT double the wrong way around again. :(
 
Game 29 - Dragons vs Penrith

Dragons Win Match : 2 units @ 1.90
Penrith Under 9.5 Points 1st Half : 1.5 units @ 1.80
Dragons / Dragons Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1.5 units @ 2.70
Dragons Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
Tyson Frizell 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00
 
At half time I am not confident that the Dragons can finish this off.

Wind against them, penalty count is probably going to be squared up and as the Dragons got tired in that 1st half the Panthers started to look real dangerous.

Maybe if it rains they might grit it out last week but I am laying some of my stakes off.
 
Game 29 Results :-

Dragons Win Match : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Penrith Under 9.5 Points 1st Half : 1.5 units @ 1.80 = +1.2
Dragons / Dragons Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1.5 units @ 2.70 = +2.55
Dragons Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = +5
Tyson Frizell 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00 = -0.5

Game 29 Total = +10.05 units

As an old Dragons fan I did enjoy that and the big wins are a bonus. I thought the Dragons blew it but with lots of crazy trading going on late in that game it was awesome! :cool:
 
Game 30 - Warriors vs Newcastle

Newcastle Over 8.5 Points 2nd Half : 3 units @ 2.30
Warriors -6.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90
Solomona Kata To Score A Try : 2 units @ 1.80
Simon Mannering To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.50
Warriors -30.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 6.00
Ben Matulino 1st Tryscorer : 0.1 unit @ 41.00
 
Game 31 - Tigers vs Parramatta

Tigers Over 9.5 Points 2nd Half : 3 units @ 1.88
James Tedesco To Score A Try : 2 units @ 2.15
Over 43.5 Match Points : 1 unit @ 2.00
Parramatta / Tigers Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
 
Game 30 Results :-

Newcastle Over 8.5 Points 2nd Half : 3 units @ 2.30 = -3
Warriors -6.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90 = -2
Solomona Kata To Score A Try : 2 units @ 1.80 = +1.6
Simon Mannering To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.50 = -1
Warriors -30.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 6.00 = -1
Ben Matulino 1st Tryscorer : 0.1 unit @ 41.00 = -0.1

Game 30 Total = -5.5 units

Horrible outcome. I expected Warriors to blitz the 1st half and get sloppy and leak points in the 2nd. It played the other way around. Kata gets 1st Try and Matulino Scores - wrong way around for me again tho! :p


Game 31 Results :-

Tigers Over 9.5 Points 2nd Half : 3 units @ 1.88 = -3
James Tedesco To Score A Try : 2 units @ 2.15 = -2
Over 43.5 Match Points : 1 unit @ 2.00 = -1
Parramatta / Tigers Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5

Game 31 Total = -6.5 units

That's 80 minutes I'll never get back. Absolutely rubbish football and the worst game of the year so far. :(

NOTE - 2 games in a row with a huge amount of errors and stoppages. Sympathies to anyone who sat through them both. On todays form all 4 of these teams should miss the 8.
 
Game 32 - Sharks vs Melbourne

Sharks Win Match : 2 units @ 1.75
Under 34.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90
Draw at Halftime OR Fulltime : 1 unit @ 9.00
Sharks Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
Melbourne Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
 
Game 32 Results :-

Sharks Win Match : 2 units @ 1.75 = +1.5
Under 34.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Draw at Halftime OR Fulltime : 1 unit @ 9.00 = -1
Sharks Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5
Melbourne Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5

Game 32 Total = +1.3 units

Another very ugly game of footy. Must be something about Easter Monday, too much chocolate over the weekend. I'll take the modest profit though. :/
 
NRL Round 4 Summary :-

Souths vs Bulldogs = +0.6
Brisbane vs Cowboys = +5.26
Canberra vs Titans = +3.2
Roosters vs Manly = +1.635
Dragons vs Penrith = +10.05
Warriors vs Newcastle = -5.5
Tigers vs Parramatta = -6.5
Sharks vs Melbourne = +1.3

NRL Round 4 Total = +10.045 units

Total Units Bet = 53.6
Return On Investment (ROI) = +18.7%

Bets Won / Placed = 16/44
Strike Rate (SR) = 36.4%

Notes from Round 4 :-

1. A solid round was torpedoed by a poor showing on Easter Monday with 3 games that all were of very questionable quality. I need to look at previous years stats and put this in the diary for next year as a possible pitfall to watch out for.

2. My 2 big losses this week both feature a big 2nd half overs bet on the underdog teams that failed. Was expecting both games to open up 2nd half but the pace of the games appear to be slowing down and teams are getting fitter. I need to shelve this betting strategy for a while, or at least go lighter on it.

3. My ROI is dropping even though I had 6/8 profitable games and my Strike Rate is only slightly down. This may be suggesting that finding value in markets is getting harder as bookies are starting to wise up to the early season trends. My monthly analysis and summary might tell me more about this.
 
Had my worst week ever in Tipping Comp...3 out of 8...dropped 20000 places. You have to go well in the first 5 rounds or you give up too much start..Currently in mid-field.

BO... YOU ARE A SMART PUNTER. dO YOU PUT YOUR WINNINGS TO GOOD USE:)

Regards Errol 43
 
March Summary (Rounds 1-4) :-

At the end of the month I've found it pays to do a deeper analysis into results to identify any macro trends or problem areas. Overall it's been a good start to the season with some consistent weekly profit.

Round 1 = +26.93
Round 2 = +11.09
Round 3 = +16.185
Round 4 = +10.045

March Total = +64.25 units

March Return On Investment = +28.1%
March Strike Rate = 37.0%

Looking more deeply into the profitability of market types :-

Match Winner = +6.42
Match Handicap = +22.92
Half Game Handicap = -7.265
Winning Margin = +0.20

Poor result on the Half Game Handicap but great result on the Match Handicap (Includes the 13+ Margin bets) where I hit a few blowout scores. Might need to keep it simple going forward and ease up on the half game bets.

Halftime / Fulltime Double = -0.95
Halftime or Fulltime Draw = -4.50

Poor result here consistent with poor half game bets above. The Draw bets are striking at 0% despite a few near misses. Ease up here.

Match Points = +10.74
Team Points = +5.74
Half Game Points = +7.80
Half Game Team Points = +0.82

Very solid on the Match Points markets from all angles. Bet stronger here.

1st Scoring Play Penalty = +10.00
1st Scoring Play Try = -3.25
1st To 10 Points = +4.50

After a poor start in Round 1 I've been hitting a good amount of Penalty Goal bets. Decent strength here suggests I am still reading the game openings well.

1st Tryscorer = -9.60
Last Tryscorer = +5.25
To Score A Try(s) = +15.925

Not real happy with the 1st & Last Tryscorers but very solid on the Anytime Tryscorers. I could probably go a bit stronger there too now that I have 4 rounds of form to go by I can get a handle on who the "GO TO" players are.

40/20 Kicked = -0.5

A one-off, can't read to much into that.


Now a quick look into the teams to see who I'm reading well or poorly (ranked) :-

Souths = +36.43
Manly = +23.585
Newcastle = +21.36
Dragons = +18.99
Bulldogs = +16.28
Roosters = +10.42
Penrith = +8.14
Cowboys = +6.375
Brisbane = +6.13
Canberra = +4.16
Warriors = +4.01
Melbourne = +0.20
Tigers = -0.15
Parramatta = -4.67
Sharks = -6.46
Titans = -16.30

I knew that Souths were my best and Titans were my worst, but it looks like I need to study the Sharks and Parramatta a bit more to find out whats going wrong there. This formline can also help me decide whether to ramp my betting up or down.

If you've made it this far down my post then kudos to you. You've seen how I operate now and I originally said I would do this for a month (Rounds 1-4) and here we are. It does take a bit of effort to write it all up but one of the things I strongly believe in is that if your process is good and you're doing things right then don't change what you're doing. While I normally do move away from pre-game betting and into more in-play trade as the season progresses I'd be willing to commit to another month (Rounds 5-8) if there is enough interest.

So click the "Say Thanks" button on this post if you want me to continue and I can see if there is enough interest to make it worthwhile.
 
BuggedOut said:
So click the "Say Thanks" button on this post if you want me to continue and I can see if there is enough interest to make it worthwhile.
Click to expand...


Definitely would love to see your picks every week. Sometimes i need an extra leg or two on my multi, :)

You def know the game, team and play very well :)
 
errol43 said:
BUGGED OUT. Do you watch all the NRL games on foxtell live. ????
Click to expand...

I used to watch the channel 9 coverage because the commentators are sometimes marginally better. But now that foxtel shows them all live I use foxtel exclusively and I watch all the games I can (wife permitting :p).

I have found there can be up to a 5 second delay between foxtel and channel 9 - which can get you murdered if you're doing in-play trade.
 
BuggedOut said:
If you've made it this far down my post then kudos to you. You've seen how I operate now and I originally said I would do this for a month (Rounds 1-4) and here we are. It does take a bit of effort to write it all up but one of the things I strongly believe in is that if your process is good and you're doing things right then don't change what you're doing. While I normally do move away from pre-game betting and into more in-play trade as the season progresses I'd be willing to commit to another month (Rounds 5-8) if there is enough interest.

So click the "Say Thanks" button on this post if you want me to continue and I can see if there is enough interest to make it worthwhile.
Click to expand...

Pressing the button to say thanks wasn't enough for me mate, I know it takes a lot of effort to write this all up but not only has it been entertaining it is awesome to see a bit of your insight and making a little profit along the way! It would be incredible to see this go the length of the season (I think you would make this the most viewed and replied to thread in other investments) however I understand it would take a great deal of time and appreciate each week you do!

Anyways just wanted to give you a GIANT THANKS!
 
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