NRL Punting Thread

Thanks for the kind words and the encouragement.

I can go for another month but that will probably be about it.

It does get harder to maintain an edge as the season progresses and the origin period is an utter nightmare because from about round 12 to 19 the competition is completely disrupted and form study is practically useless. During that time it is more about which teams are "turning up to play" on any given day and it's very hard to anticipate that as an outsider.
 
Just a follow up from my monthly team analysis. A few teams I was reading poorly that I have reviewed :-

Titans

In previous years Titans were a bit of a "Grinding Team". They had a strong (and older) pack that could consistently put them into the early arm wrestle and they were (sometimes) good defensively, but they played within themselves and didn't have much flair in attack. A lot of those older forwards are gone now and the Titans style is changing under Neil Henry in his 2nd full year as coach. They are more of a "High Variance Team" at the moment. Weaker defensively and not really playing 80 minutes but capable of putting on spurts of momentum to rack up some points with expansive momentum play. So my Half Game and Unders bets have been damaging me.


Parramatta

Even though I was very bullish on Parramatta pre-season I have actually been underestimating them. In previous years they could play well but get run down late in games but they are a lot tougher now with the the recruitment of experienced players like Beau Scott (0 missed tackles in 4 games). I had thought they might fade out 2nd half against both Cowboys and Tigers but they gutsed them both out to cause me losses. Thier attack is struggling but defence wins games this early in the season. Opposite of Titans they've changed this year from a "High Variance Team" to more of a "Grinding Team" in 2016.


Sharks

The Sharks have been a "Grinding Team" for years and I still think this is the predominant style for them, but they have been a bit inconsistent so far this year and are misfiring a bit, possibly because of the new halves and Barba now at fullback working to find his old form - all 3 of them are "Confidence Players". My biggest loss on Sharks was due to a Dragons capitulation in round 2, but the 2 (impressive) wins were at home and the 2 (dissappointing) losses were away so that might be part of the equation too. I do think the Sharks will go a long way this year if/when they can settle into some consistency. Thats what I need to look out for with Sharks - The Home/Away Record and Consistency.
 
LOL. No. :)

Just not comfortable with making public pre-game tips without an expectancy that I will be able to tip into profit because I am expecting diminishing returns as the season wears on.
 
Game 33 - Manly vs Souths

Manly Under 16.5 Points : 2 units @ 1.87
Souths / Souths Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 2.15
Under 34.5 Match Points : 1 unit @ 2.40
Souths -23.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.20
Aaron Gray 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
 
Game 33 Results :-

Manly Under 16.5 Points : 2 units @ 1.87 = +1.74
Souths / Souths Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 2.15 = +2.3
Under 34.5 Match Points : 1 unit @ 2.40 = +1.4
Souths -23.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.20 = -1
Aaron Gray 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = -0.5

Game 33 Total = +3.94 units

The blowout was on when Souths led 16-0 after 16 minutes but then it turned into an arm wrestle. Glad to have both scenarios covered. :D
 
Game 34 - Titans vs Brisbane

Over 40.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.90
James Roberts To Score A Try : 2 units @ 1.95
James Roberts To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 7.00
Brisbane -29.5 Match Handicap : 0.5 unit @ 6.65
 
Game 34 Results :-

Over 40.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.90 = -3
James Roberts To Score A Try : 2 units @ 1.95 = +1.9
James Roberts To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 7.00 = -0.5
Brisbane -29.5 Match Handicap : 0.5 unit @ 6.65 = -0.5

Game 34 Total = -2.1 units

What a joke. Refs killed this game. Only 3 penalties in the 1st half and 2 of them blown over the top of Titans errors to keep Brisbane off attack. Stopped play on every other opportunity and the finish just topped it off where they let the clock run for a minute while players push and shove instead of forcing the scrum. Missed the Overs by half a point. :mad:

NOTE - I have come to the conclusion that the new "shot clock" is now useless. Players have figured out they can fake an injury or push and shove to cause a stoppage and slow things back down.
 
Game 35 - Melbourne vs Newcastle

Under 44.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90
Newcastle +14.5 Match Handicap : 2 units @ 1.92
Newcastle Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 3.40
 
screaming eagle said:
Newcastle 1st try scoring play against Melbourne was a ballsy, yet profitable call.
Click to expand...

Those are the best kind ;)

The price was right. Gotta take it.
 
Game 36 - Tigers vs Sharks

Tigers +1.5 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.90
Under 40.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.95
Tigers Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 2.50
Tigers / Sharks Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.15
Luke Lewis 1st Tryscorer Sharks : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
 
BuggedOut said:
Game 36 - Tigers vs Sharks

Tigers +1.5 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.90
Under 40.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.95
Tigers Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 2.50
Tigers / Sharks Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.15
Luke Lewis 1st Tryscorer Sharks : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
Click to expand...

Managed to get Luke Lewis @17 so its already a profitable game after the 1st try! Keep it up my friend!
 
brisbanecoin said:
Managed to get Luke Lewis @17 so its already a profitable game after the 1st try! Keep it up my friend!
Click to expand...

Excellent! Well done :D

I thought Tigers would get the first try, so I was only backing him to be the Sharks 1st Tryscorer. But I'll take it. Glad to see you get a good win.
 
Game 37 - Cowboys vs Dragons

Dragons +6.5 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.85
Cowboys Under 25.5 Match Points : 1.5 unit @ 2.00
Cowboys 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.25
Dragons Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 8.00
Dragons / Cowboys Haltime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.15
 
BuggedOut said:
brisbanecoin said:
Managed to get Luke Lewis @17 so its already a profitable game after the 1st try! Keep it up my friend!
Click to expand...

Excellent! Well done :D

I thought Tigers would get the first try, so I was only backing him to be the Sharks 1st Tryscorer. But I'll take it. Glad to see you get a good win.
Click to expand...

Lol I was in a hurry to place the bet and didn't even realize you had put sharks. Wondering why I got beter odds, ah well lucky mistake!
 
Game 35 Results :-

Under 44.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Newcastle +14.5 Match Handicap : 2 units @ 1.92 = +1.84
Newcastle Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 3.40 = +2.4

Game 35 Total = +6.04 units

Green is good! Newcastle is improving enough to convince me they won't get the spoon. :)


Game 36 Results :-

Tigers +1.5 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Under 40.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.95 = -2
Tigers Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 2.50 = -1
Tigers / Sharks Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.15 = +3.575
Luke Lewis 1st Tryscorer Sharks : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = +4.5

Game 36 Total = +6.875 units

A lot more open game than I was expecting. Sharks are finding some consistency and Tigers folded nicely. :p


Game 37 Results :-

Dragons +6.5 1st Half Handicap : 2 units @ 1.85 = -2
Cowboys Under 25.5 Match Points : 1.5 unit @ 2.00 = -1.5
Cowboys 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.25 = -1
Dragons Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 8.00 = -0.5
Dragons / Cowboys Haltime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.15 = -0.5

Game 37 Total = -5.5 units

Horrible. I picked up the wrong script. Should have gone with the one about Benji Marshall running sideways and Dragons capitulating in the 2nd half, which I nearly did but I really thought Dragons would fight harder. :(
 
Game 38 - Roosters vs Warriors

Over 44 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90
Roosters 1st To 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 2.05
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 2.45
Isaac Luke To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 6.00
Roosters -12.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 6.10
 
Game 39 - Parramatta vs Penrith

Parramatta / Parramatta Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 2.00
Penrith Under 13.5 Match Points : 1 unit @ 2.40
Parramatta 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.10
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
Michael Jennings 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 11.50
Michael Jennings 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half : 0.5 unit @ 12.50
 
Game 38 Results :-

Over 44 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Roosters 1st To 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 2.05 = -1.5
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 2.45 = +2.175
Isaac Luke To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 6.00 = -1
Roosters -12.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 6.10 = -1

Game 38 Total = +0.475 units

Both these teams still look pretty ordinary 5 rounds in. RTS scores in extra time to pull Warriors (and me) out of the hole. :p


Game 39 Results :-

Parramatta / Parramatta Halftime / Fulltime Double : 2 units @ 2.00 = -2
Penrith Under 13.5 Match Points : 1 unit @ 2.40 = -1
Parramatta 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.10 = -1
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = +4.5
Michael Jennings 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 11.50 = -0.5
Michael Jennings 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half : 0.5 unit @ 12.50 = -0.5

Game 39 Total = -0.5 units

Finally hit a halftime draw but denied the margin bet with a Penrith try in the final second of the match. Thems the breaks :(
 
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