Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  • Total voters
    146
mmm....shiney! said:
There have been no 1000% gains for gold. I've had them and more in crypto and the share market though.
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I said "continued to perform". If Gold were to see 1000% gains and continue to see gains, the perception would change.


mmm....shiney! said:
I've addressed that a number of times, see the Glassnodes insight posted above and when I listed the use cases for BTC.
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Lol. I don't think you understand. An asset with absolutely terrible fundamentals can still see massive gains from market psychology alone. Emotions are a huge driving force behind price action. I've mentioned to you before that you've mainly made a case for DLT and Blockchain, of which I don't disagree. Bitcoin is a Brand. What properties does it posses that cannot be matched or superceded by another? You'll find that all that is left beyond the underlying technology is a brand. One that is used primarily as a vessel for speculative investment. That is its primary role today - to produce income from investment.

mmm....shiney! said:
What evidence would change your mind that would show you that individuals invest in BTC for more than just capital gain?
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Shiney, you know how this works. People will invest into something and then use every reason they can muster to justifying their position. Ultimately, all they want is their decision to be validated with Capital gains.

The market is heavily saturated with participants looking for that very thing. Even the diehard fans and fundamentalists will check the price and/or their portfolios more than twice a day.
 
STKR said:
If Gold were to see 1000% gains and continue to see gains, the perception would change.
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Maybe, I can't see that happening though but I have to acknowledge that the possibility of capital gain is always something we look for when investing. In cryptos case there are opportunities to make 1000%+ gains, less so in BTC and Eth but they both form the largest part of my portfolio, despite the fact that other projects offer the opportunity for larger capital gain. The reason I am more heavily invested in BTC and Eth is because of the various other qualities assigned to both of those projects.

STKR said:
What properties does it posses that cannot be matched or superceded by another?
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I've already explained that. It is the most secure and most decentralised blockchain. Nothing else at this stage can match it or supersede it, so what developers are doing is instead of trying to develop a new blockchain that is even more secure or more decentralised than BTC, they are creating solutions to add to or on top of the BTC blockchains to make it function even faster or to give it even greater utility eg smart contracts.

I'll ask my question again, what evidence do you need that would change your mind and show you that individuals invest in BTC for more than just capital gain?
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Maybe, I can't see that happening though but I have to acknowledge that the possibility of capital gain is always something we look for when investing. In cryptos case there are opportunities to make 1000%+ gains, less so in BTC and Eth but they both form the largest part of my portfolio, despite the fact that other projects offer the opportunity for larger capital gain. The reason I am more heavily invested in BTC and Eth is because of the various other qualities assigned to both of those projects.



I've already explained that. It is the most secure and most decentralised blockchain. Nothing else at this stage can match it or supersede it, so what developers are doing is instead of trying to develop a new blockchain that is even more secure or more decentralised than BTC, they are creating solutions to add to or on top of the BTC blockchains to make it function even faster or to give it even greater utility eg smart contracts.

I'll ask my question again, what evidence do you need that would change your mind and show you that individuals invest in BTC for more than just capital gain?
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The majority of market participants utilising it for it's intended purpose, rather than it being a used to wager bets and gamble with. That would be a start.
 
STKR said:
The majority of market participants utilising it for it's intended purpose, rather than it being a used to wager bets and gamble with. That would be a start.
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There are a variety of uses for BTC, but I'll assume that you prioritise as a means to send/receive payment and that such a use precludes any other quality users assign to BTC when it comes to determining whether it is simple a vehicle of speculation or not?
 
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mmm....shiney! said:
There are a variety of uses for BTC, but I'll assume that you prioritise as a means to send/receive payment and that such a use precludes any other quality users assign to BTC when it comes to determining whether it is simple a vehicle of speculation or not?
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It doesn't matter what uses there are for Bitcoin when the main utility is speculation. That's what's been the driving force behind the bubble inflation. That's where the threat comes from.
 
STKR said:
It doesn't matter what uses there are for Bitcoin when the main utility is speculation. That's what's been the driving force behind the bubble inflation. That's where the threat comes from.
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Good, I'm just making sure we agree that BTC has uses beyond its capacity to provide a capital gain.

And yes I would concede that capital gain is probably at the top of the list nowadays when it comes to why people invest in BTC. In that regard it's no different to any other asset, with probably the exception of home ownership and investing in dividend stocks. But it does matter what use cases there are for BTC beyond speculation as an investment vehicle, because it's those use cases we value that will contribute to its longevity.

Interestingly that's not what got me involved in it. Back when I first started buying it multiple returns wasn't even really a thing on buyer's radars, it was the concept of financial freedom without a centralised authority that attracted me. And that's still there and shared by many in the market. And that's why I voted that we're not in a bubble all those years ago.

And if I voted again, I'd vote the same way. It's not a bubble, it's a new way of utilising scarce resources in meeting our needs. And that's the economic attraction that cryptos offer that can't be met in any other way.
 
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mmm....shiney! said:
BTC has uses beyond its capacity to provide a capital gain.
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You are right there shiney old boy, BTC has uses beyond its previous capacity to provide a capital gain.

It now has the capacity to provide a capital loss, as those late on the Crypto Ponzi Express train are finding out.:p

And the shitshow in the world economic system is only just starting;)
 
@hardyakkagold and your sidekick @tdtwedt thanks for your input, at least you are showing an understanding that individuals invest in BTC and the wider crypto environment because of the value that it can bring to society beyond that of just a vehicle for capital gain. I'm hoping we can move beyond the "BTC is just a speculative play" mantra now.

I just want to point out one thing, that is the difference between a fraudulent investment scheme that rewards earlier investors with profits paid for by those investing later (a Ponzi) and say those investments or assets experiencing a network effect such as BTC is, or those experiencing substantial rises in prices due to supply/demand issues such as home lending. Lyn Alden goes in to the network effect around BTC in more detail here: https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoins-network-effect/

The term "Ponzi" is thrown around indiscriminately all too often. In order for a Ponzi to exist, the early investors must be directly profiting from later investors ie receiving some form of income paid to them out of the funds of those arriving at the party later. That doesn't happen with BTC.

hardyakkagold said:
And the shitshow in the world economic system is only just starting;)
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If you believe that then it could be time to alot a portion of your wealth into BTC and other peer-peer open network solutions.

On another note, a company that Alden mentions in her article above is https://blockstream.com/satellite/ . They've got a few projects on the move including a satellite that in their own words:

The Blockstream Satellite network broadcasts the Bitcoin blockchain around the world 24/7 for free, protecting against network interruptions and providing areas without reliable internet connections with the opportunity to use Bitcoin.
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Exciting times for us all.
 
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mmm....shiney! said:
showing an understanding that individuals invest in BTC and the wider crypto environment because of the value that it can bring to society beyond that of just a vehicle for capital gain. I'm hoping we can move beyond the "BTC is just a speculative play" mantra now.
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That's where im at too and wouldnt mind dropping 5 or 10k at some point for the long term.
 
Back in the pre-dawn of the crypto world it was all transactions. Here's a few extracts from the online exchange between Laszlo Hanyecz who wanted to trade 10 000BTC for 2 large pizzas and a few of the other participants. The first is Laszlo's opening post from May 18, 2010.

I'll pay 10,000 bitcoins for a couple of pizzas.. like maybe 2 large ones so I have some left over for the next day. I like having left over pizza to nibble on later. You can make the pizza yourself and bring it to my house or order it for me from a delivery place, but what I'm aiming for is getting food delivered in exchange for bitcoins where I don't have to order or prepare it myself, kind of like ordering a 'breakfast platter' at a hotel or something, they just bring you something to eat and you're happy!

I like things like onions, peppers, sausage, mushrooms, tomatoes, pepperoni, etc.. just standard stuff no weird fish topping or anything like that. I also like regular cheese pizzas which may be cheaper to prepare or otherwise acquire.

If you're interested please let me know and we can work out a deal.

Thanks,
Laszlo
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laszlo I would offer to buy you a pizza, but I'm not based in the USA, so they might think I'm a prank caller.

If you don't get any other offers I might look into how to go about buying you one online.

Are you getting hungry or do you just like pizza ?
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I just think it would be interesting if I could say that I paid for a pizza in bitcoins
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