TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
I think Bitcoin is warming up for a much bigger drop.
Monitoring the Crypto Bubble
- Thread starter Bullion Baron
- Start date
I think so too, and I'm hoping too actually, I'll be dipping my toes in on a buy if/when it hits the 200 week moving average
Historical bottoms have been when the price is hanging around that range.
Sitting at ~22k currently.
Black swan events like when COVID first struck in March 2020, prices touched the 300 week MA, that was the buy of a lifetime, would have seen you ~17x from bottom to ATH
Not financial advice, just what I'm considering doing
Here's another look, this time with 300 week MA, sitting at around 16k
Good buying in between that 16 to 22k range, DCAing into that range is my plan
Polar.bear.Stacker
Well-Known Member
I'm already DCAing in every 10k drop in AUD
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
So, where is the bottom that you're eyeing to buy in?
I think a few alt coins could be a better buy due to higher increase potential.
Time honoured strategy.
Edit to add: and keep a stash of $$$ set aside separately for the next Black Swan.
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Golden ChipMunk
Well-Known Member
The global crypto market cap have decreased, Hence huge dropped.
My initial capital still holding with numbers of coins.
Just keep an eye on the swing and keep doing my maths.
My initial capital still holding with numbers of coins.
Just keep an eye on the swing and keep doing my maths.
To outsiders the industry appears to be just a gambling den, with players solely intent upon capital gain. But to insiders capital gains are the "hook" that create a feedback loop between interest, ideas and innovation:
https://a16zcrypto.com/state-of-crypto-report-a16z-2022/
Matsuko et al said:
https://a16zcrypto.com/state-of-crypto-report-a16z-2022/
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
When food and paying utilities becomes more important than speculative investments, people won't buy into cryptos.
But that's ordinary people.
I wonder what the rich are doing. And I don't mean the super rich, even the "small rich" who are worth 1-2 million USD or more. I wonder if they're looking at this as a buying opportunity.
I doubt that people will simply give up investing in crypto in a simple disgust & loss of appetite. There's too much crypto infrastructure (with wallets and exchanges etc.) set up.
I just can't believe the would be over. Not even if Bitcoin sank down to 6-7 k.
But that's ordinary people.
I wonder what the rich are doing. And I don't mean the super rich, even the "small rich" who are worth 1-2 million USD or more. I wonder if they're looking at this as a buying opportunity.
I doubt that people will simply give up investing in crypto in a simple disgust & loss of appetite. There's too much crypto infrastructure (with wallets and exchanges etc.) set up.
I just can't believe the would be over. Not even if Bitcoin sank down to 6-7 k.
Golden ChipMunk
Well-Known Member
Crypto's is a genius thing ever created ..... Functions 24/7 putting the rest of the world together.
If there are NO risk? then there are No gain...
Golden ChipMunk
Well-Known Member
Do you know How many dads and mums are there buying Crypto's?
Is better than going to the casino.
Cos there are still something to hold on, even they are down.
Yeah, I understand that. But it's not a "sure thing" with perpetual growth like some believe it to be. For Bitcoin to surpass it's all time highs, it would require a further $600 Billion + to flow into it, and even more to overcome selling pressure to sustain itself beyond that. That requires lot of faith and a lot of greed.
If we enter an extended period of low performance and volatility, the entire crypto market could begin to fizzle. Miners require more incentives to continue their operations when the price falls and sustains itself below their AISC. A mass exodus of miners could actually be BTC's ultimate downfall. With the cost of mining increasing with each halving that takes place, the whole functionality and touted benefits of BTC could crash and burn.
I have never seen an asset become so heavily dependent on ongoing speculative interest more so than Bitcoin. I have an excerpt from an article discussing the Breakeven costs of one company. Although it won't be the same for others, the cost to mine 1 BTC appears to be in a range of $15,000USD to $30,000+. How long would miners stay in the game when they operate at a loss? Furthermore, miners will be selling everything they mine just to cover costs, further contributing to downward pressure of the asset. There will be no HODLing from these participants... when it doesn't make $$$, it doesn't make sense...
So yes, there is risk in everything. But when the risk is much greater than the reward, it would be better to head over to the casino and try your luck there.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/cointe...-price-hit-before-capitulating-data-shows/amp
I suspect your attitude may change a bit if or when you are closely networked with other crypto users. Or if you are someone who travels a lot. Beaming money to and from wherever and whoever you want is ridiculously convenient. Sometimes I think the arguments here are like arguing what’s better between a microwave and a conventional oven - both heat your food but almost everyone would want both.
or riddle me this- if bitcoin transitioned today to zero-to-low volatility would you not concede that it offers an elegant solution to a lot of our problems with money? If that’s the case we should be cheering BTC on to its final form. A stable, highly liquid, value-transfer conduit
Some might use it to transfer funds or when traveling but most buy it to get rich.
Theres alot of things btc could be but it isnt.
Its been a flop in el salvador.
Theres alot of things btc could be but it isnt.
Its been a flop in el salvador.
Totally.. realistically BTC needs 20-50 more years
I'm not arguing about what it's better or worse than. I just think there is a lot of risk because of speculation and that actually serves as its main feature of interest.
Bitcoin is a great concept, but it has too many flaws for me to "concede that it offers an elegant solution to a lot of our problems with money". The need for miners and the inefficiency of mining itself is an Achilles heel in the design. There will be another halving in 2024 and another after that, which just means the cost to mine BTC is likely to increase and dependence on speculative inflows will become greater.
Other than the astonishing gains and a decade+ of wealth creation, there's been no argument or presented benefit that has swayed me. I don't need BTC or any other crypto. There is no interest beyond gambling or "investing", as some people call it.
Plus being digital and relying on power and internet its destined to failure.
When people need it most it will be turned off. Annnnd its gone.
A good money cant have those types of issues or rely on someone else to give it value.
When people need it most it will be turned off. Annnnd its gone.
A good money cant have those types of issues or rely on someone else to give it value.