ALCYONE Resources (AYN)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by SilverSanchez, Feb 17, 2011.

  1. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I took a hit on AYN. I am definitely not looking to get back in.

    I think the thing they are best at mining is capital.
     
  2. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    +1

    SLV - dont have substantial resource or cash reserves

    CCU - mining silver - better chance to survive


    Not saying you should or shouldnt buy - make your own decision - anyone can make or lose money on all
     
  3. doomsday surprise

    doomsday surprise Active Member Silver Stacker

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    AYN - All Your Nuggets - get taken by the management. I too have taken a bath on this one. Lucky it wasn't too much but seriously if you wanna lose some fiat stick it in AYN.
     
  4. hihosilver

    hihosilver New Member

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    This was a interesting thread over the years. I've just looked back from the start and I personally didn't get on board then but it really shows the roller coaster ride mining shares can be... It also speaks to me that when jumping on a penny stock you must just get in and get out and DON'T GET GREEDY alas that is very hard to do :) I know I"ve been there and back on other stocks like this.
     
  5. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    I had put $10K in this stock - just lucky it was in october of 2010,
    $10K a year later would have ruined me...

    I learnt a supreme lesson - Value is the only legitimate reason to invest, and indeed the definition of 'invest'.

    When I read Ben Grahams "The Intelligent Investor" - he had written the definition of 'investor', so I didnt have to learn the defintion by negative experience.
     
  6. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Yeah you can probably see my learning curve over the course of this thread
     
  7. CLZ

    CLZ New Member

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    This stock really starts to look and feel that all hope is gone - you can also feel it even this forum...
    ...so I bought shares 0.016
     
  8. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Deep value investor, snicker
     
  9. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Hahaha good on you,

    I just hope you have done one thing

    You have a way of determining whether the stock is over valued or undervalued
    Because sentiment on a stock can in fact be correct and result in the company not being able to raise capital and therefore not being able to pay to produce any ounces, and therefore they only are able to let the mine stagnate until its bought out or the company runs out of money paying director's salaries.

    Please for your own peace of mind.... have SOME way, some ligitimate mathmatical way of determining a value for each share.
     
  10. CLZ

    CLZ New Member

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    ...and I feel disrespect and contempt - good.

    mathmatical way of determining a value for each share

    You can do all kind of fancy calculations if you wish, but how your calculations predict the future? In silver mining stocks it all comes back to price of silver and price of silver is speculation. I just see in front of me a potential black swan - high risk high reward.

    You really think that JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited (Cash Income), which is subsidiary of JPMorgan, owns 17.10% of crap?
     
  11. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This ^^^
    There is a reason price is floundering.
    There are many, many smart and knowledgeable people combing the market for value, and the price of AYN would indicate they have thumbed their nose at this one. Price is often the best indicator.

    Yes. But they don't care, they are using other peoples money. They own a lot of everything - they have to, often in order to fulfill their funds' mandates.
     
  12. CLZ

    CLZ New Member

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    ...and i feel despair - excellent!

    You really think that JPM just owns shares of AYN because they have to and at the same time AYN is f.u.c.k.i.n.g. with JPM?


    There is a reason price is floundering.

    Hah :) - Of course there is.
     
  13. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes.
    But it isn't their money.
    Like I said... mandated.
    Note the detail in the fine print. JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited
     
  14. CLZ

    CLZ New Member

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    >But it isn't their money.

    Maybe, maybe not - they use also bulvans/decoy.

    So why they have choosen AYN?

    And who is keeping price in this level? It looks like that somebody is buying in at the moment from 0.0150.


    If this is just customers money - do you know which funds own this?
     
  15. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    They have chosen nearly everything. If you want to base your buying strategy on JP Morg's owning some, then go right ahead - at your own peril.

    Sellers are keeping the price at this level - for good reason. For every seller, there has to be a buyer.

    JP Morgan Nominees Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of JPMorgan Chase & Co. It is a vehicle they use to park it's managed funds shareholdings in.
    The owners are the unit holders of JP Morgan's managed funds - most likely Super funds in Aust. Funds include:

    JPMorgan Asset Management
    JPMorgan Securities
    JPMorgan Asian Investment Trust plc
    JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust plc
    JPMorgan Emerging Markets Investment Trust plc
    JPMorgan Fleming Mercantile Investment Trust plc
    JPMF's Natural Resources Fund
    JPMorgan Income & Capital Investment Trust plc
    JPMorgan Income & Growth Investment Trust plc
    JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc
    JPMorgan Russian Securities
    JPMorgan Nominees Australia
    JPMorgan Overseas Investment Trust plc
    JPMorgan Cazenove
    JPMorgan Chase & Co
    Chase Nominees
    JPMorgan Fleming

    They own a fair slice of most ASX listed companies of any size - it is a managed funds way of spreading risk. You'll see them on the top 20 shareholders of a heap of companies (including small miners):

    Company JP Morgan Nominees
    AMP 13.88%
    BHP Billiton 13.29%
    Brambles 21.73%
    CSL 17.43%
    Fosters Group 21.23%
    Macquarie bank 19.96%
    Newcrest Mining 16.57%
    Origin Energy 14.10%
    RioTinto 16.68%
    Sun Corp 17.09%
    Telstra 12.50%
    Westfield 25.00%
    Westfarmers 13.77%
    Woolworths 11.34%
    Woodside 11.97%
     
  16. Contrarian

    Contrarian New Member

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    On the flip side, does that mean that a higher price would be an indicator of good value?

    C
     
  17. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    This is why having a way of determining value makes all the difference between gambling and investing

    If you knew through analysis a lake was poisoned with murcury you would not swim in it no matter how nice it looked, if you knew through analysis it was clean you would swim even when a romour starts about it being dirty.

    Value analysis is almost everything
     
  18. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I need to correct my grammer: Price action is often the best indicator.

    Fixed.
     
  19. Contrarian

    Contrarian New Member

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    ;) A higher price is never a better indicator of value than a lower price.

    If you need to see a higher price to confirm value in something then you haven't valued it correctly when the price was lower.

    Something that I find easy to do with property but difficult with shares.

    C
     
  20. CLZ

    CLZ New Member

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    > If you want to base your buying strategy on JP Morg's owning some

    I am not, but do they own as much also SVL and CCU?

    > Sellers are keeping the price at this level - for good reason.

    will see

    > I need to correct my grammer: Price action is often the best indicator.

    Silver have come down almost 50 %, so what is the information from silver price movement? for me it tells nothing, because in the big picture I assume that silver secular bull is still going on.


    You seem to believe that markets are efficient? I don't and actually I don't even believe stock picking which studies neither support - meaning that very few can beat index.
     

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