Monitoring the Crypto Bubble
- Thread starter Bullion Baron
- Start date
IPDA
Active Member
What is this? Miami vice?
I’ve said this before, I treat cryptocurrencies simply as trading vehicles, not an investment. So I don’t have a “fundamental analysis” on the thing. I’ll go with no though just to make you happy.
IPDA
Active Member
Still bearish.
There you go, leaves no choice but to be bearish on BTC really.
Sure, there'll be a place for gold and trad-fi in the future, but finance is evolving, currency degradation is accelerating, and there's new tech that is better suited. Gold is awkward to move, it provides no income, there's a lot of risk associated with transferring it and to hold it to a lesser extent, it's not fungible and it's not transparent unless stored with a verifiable third-party. Mind you there's positives in favour of it as well. Likewise you can't move RE, you can't quickly transfer RE, there's a lot of drag and risk associated with it that costs $1000's/per year to mitigate and it's not fungible (unless you want to go down the path of subdividing) and verifying ownership is time consuming. Like gold there are positives to holding RE though.
BTC on the other hand is easy to move, quick to transfer, is fungible down to 100/1000000 of a BTC, presents very little risk to hold, transactions are transparent, requires no third-party as a middle man and ownership is easily verifiable. Negatives associated with it are that it's still in its infancy, is volatile and financial products designed to generate a return or collateralise on your holdings are still maturing.
Diversification is the key and every portfolio should contain long positions in all 3 assets.
Thanks for clarifying your position though.
IPDA
Active Member
There you go, leaves no choice but to be bearish on BTC really.
Sure, there'll be a place for gold and trad-fi in the future, but finance is evolving, currency degradation is accelerating, and there's new tech that is better suited. Gold is awkward to move, it provides no income, there's a lot of risk associated with transferring it and to hold it to a lesser extent, it's not fungible and it's not transparent unless stored with a verifiable third-party. Mind you there's positives in favour of it as well. Likewise you can't move RE, you can't quickly transfer RE, there's a lot of drag and risk associated with it that costs $1000's/per year to mitigate and it's not fungible (unless you want to go down the path of subdividing) and verifying ownership is time consuming. Like gold there are positives to holding RE though.
BTC on the other hand is easy to move, quick to transfer, is fungible down to 100/1000000 of a BTC, presents very little risk to hold, transactions are transparent, requires no third-party as a middle man and ownership is easily verifiable. Negatives associated with it are that it's still in its infancy, is volatile and financial products designed to generate a return or collateralise on your holdings are still maturing.
Diversification is the key and every portfolio should contain long positions in all 3 assets.
Thanks for clarifying your position though.
I said this before too, if Bitcoin was bullish I’d also be a buyer. I’m a trader, so my position on it is fluid to what my technicals suggest, not a fundamental analysis.
Anti-bitcoiners are perpetually bearish as well. Mostly because the fundamentals haven't clicked with them. And in many cases probably won't ever.
IPDA
Active Member
Dude... you're entirely missing my point. I'm not always bearish on Bitcoin, I'll be a buyer too when my model tells me to. It's not like I have some kind of deep hatred for Bitcoin LOL.
I'm not, you're bearish in the short term based upon a select set of technical indicators and don't give consideration nor assign value to the fundamentals because a long term outlook on the asset doesn't suit your method of investment.
There will be no alt-season according to Bob Loukas. I agree.
IPDA
Active Member
Very dumb take from this fake guru!
When I was around 14 I read this guys book, and even then I saw through his bs, his advice was so cookie cutter that I knew he was a snake oil salesman.
if anything, hold both, but to go balls deep in crypto instead of precious metals is foolish.
He's right, but It's not advisable to go balls deep into any single asset class.
Although he's wrong when he thinks old guys don't get BTC but young people do.
Although he's wrong when he thinks old guys don't get BTC but young people do.
IPDA
Active Member
He's not right about pooling all your money from precious metals into crypto. He's essentially recommending people to sell all their stack for Bitcoin.
And his reason is stupid, he believes Bitcoin will reach 250k a coin in 2025... why...? Just because I guess LOL. He's definitely paid too, the amount of times he mentions "BitcoinZella" shows.
The correct advice would be to have a large allocation to precious metals, and a small to medium allocation to cryptocurrencies for a "holistic" portfolio. Similar to what you've done I assume. I personally view the asset class as expensive, so I wouldn't want to be buying here, but I can understand it from a portfolio diversity perspective.
If I'm correct in assuming this is the top of the Bitcoin bull market, he's literally leading his followers to a slaughterhouse. Again, providing perfect counterparty liquidity to large sellers. Eurphoric videos like these are generally a telltale sign the top is near.
I can understand that logic, it has merits on many levels. Would I recommend people to do the same? Not necessarily. There's a few of on this forum that have been suggested that others do similar for many years, though not necessarily all of their stack. Most of the time that advice either fell on deaf ears or was pushed back hard.
I think BTC will eventually reach $1000000. But not this year.
Not me. Including personal about 2% in PMs, 10% in crypto and the rest in RE. And the PM portion is a legacy of the "old me". Every asset has a drag or an opportunity cost associated with it. You have to weigh those against returns and find your happy place.
I think if it dips below 90K then that's an ideal buying opportunity. For anyone not exposed to BTC then DCA into dips going forward is probably the best strategy and if it does drop below 90K then buy a chunk once it corrects.
If I'm correct we're nowhere near the top of the market using macro and on-chain data, and of course the fundamentals of BTC which make the macro case so compelling. It's gold on steroids.
betterinvestmentthanshare
Well-Known Member
Anyone remember Aero Bars?
Bubbles of nothing that really make it something.
Bubbles of nothing that really make it something.
TA indicator suggesting a buy signal for BTC:
See: https://www.tradingview.com/news/ne...at-timed-january-top-now-gives-signal-to-buy/
See: https://www.tradingview.com/news/ne...at-timed-january-top-now-gives-signal-to-buy/
Golden ChipMunk
Well-Known Member
Apparently they run out of liquidity, come on buy some more... 
FOMO is many fear of not getting some.
The earlier one will get richer , last one will get cope up
Nothing is forever!
Soon there will be some crunch and butt hurt
FOMO is many fear of not getting some.
The earlier one will get richer , last one will get cope up
Nothing is forever!
Soon there will be some crunch and butt hurt
Soon there will be some crunch and butt hurt
Why? How many calls about a dead-set certain crash are there going to be made before those making them maybe just accept that it's not "imminent"? Being a bear is just too easy.
We'll see shortly what happens.
