Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

[Real $ Return]

I think they'll end up being 2 different types of assets. But eventually the MC of BTC will be larger than gold's because BTC's intrinsic properties makes it a more versatile asset.

Gold will retain appeal with retail investors as a hedge against other investments, with some in the retail sector viewing it as the only investment they would consider. I don't know what is happening or will happen with institutional investors in the spot market. I view the futures market as a consequence of the spot market, therefore I don't consider it a driver of demand. Non- western CBs will continue to hold it as a domestic currency hedge, demand will ebb and flow in that sector depending on how their balance sheets look.

If expectations are fulfilled with regards to BTC, then it is probably going to fulfill the same needs as gold in the retail market with eventually some capacity for them to collateralise their holdings. The spot ETF market will continue to drive demand from retail and institutions which don't want to or can't hold BTC directly. Corporate interest will be driven from a treasury/collateral perspective as companies seek to add shareholder value by holding BTC. Publicly traded companies engaging in such activities will get the attention of investment houses that can't buy spot BTC, as well as other companies offering synthetic investment products based on those companies buying and holding BTC. And if Trump winds back regulatory restrictions around BTC investment then new institutional interest will enter the spot market from sectors that can't buy spot etfs. And of course there's the fact that BTC's supply is finite, whereas gold's is infinite.

And I haven't mentioned the establishment of a strategic BTC reserve which is just a stupid idea. But that doesn't mean it is not going to happen.

So yeh, BTC will eventually flip gold, but I don't think it will affect the price of gold much as most of BTC's activity will occur in markets and products where gold is not a big player.

Great summary as usual mate, but golds supply is not infinite just larger by far then BTC, but BTC is also able to be fractionalised to miniscule amounts u can get 0.000000whatever smallest piece of gold ive seen is prob goldback...and while only atoms theyre pretty cool and still used as actual $ in some states in USA i believe

 

[Real $ Return]

Its funny when you sign up to exchange some offer $10 of BTC etc but the 21 million now and ever def has appeal and finite supply even fiat can be fractionalised...but our 1 and 2 cents are long gone n cant remember last time bought anything for 5, $ devalued to shit while assets grow

 

[IPDA]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DEp7NDaSJSm/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

 

[mmm....shiney!]

^ bwahahahahahaha

 

[mmm....shiney!]

https://bitbo.io/dead/

 

[IPDA]

bahahhahaha^

 

[IPDA]

bahahhahaha^

sorry this was too far

 

[mmm....shiney!]

BTC has broken down for a second time through a long-term rising channel that began back in Oct 2024. It looks to be trading in a consolidation phase that the charts now suggest began in Dec.

Previous BTC price surges show periods of clustering of new ATHs over the space of a few weeks followed by periods of consolidation. I expect this pattern to remain as the fundamentals haven't changed and the future macro environment (away from the noise) looks to be supportive of price appreciation across all asset classes.

Institutional adoption is still the main catalyst going forward in respect to the price of BTC.

 

[betterinvestmentthanshare]

Hmmmmm,
Investing or trading game?

 

[IPDA]

BTC has broken down for a second time through a long-term rising channel that began back in Oct 2024. It looks to be trading in a consolidation phase that the charts now suggest began in Dec.

Previous BTC price surges show periods of clustering of new ATHs over the space of a few weeks followed by periods of consolidation. I expect this pattern to remain as the fundamentals haven't changed and the future macro environment (away from the noise) looks to be supportive of price appreciation across all asset classes.

Institutional adoption is still the main catalyst going forward in respect to the price of BTC.

Institutionally, it looks like a high has formed. This will probably lead to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies seeking equilibrium and discounts (i.e., inefficiencies within the lower quadrant of equilibrium). Institutions are the only real players that can and will significantly move prices - especially in trillion dollar asset classes like crypto - so they are actually indeed selling not buying.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Institutionally, it looks like a high has formed. This will probably lead to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies seeking equilibrium and discounts (i.e., inefficiencies within the lower quadrant of equilibrium). Institutions are the only real players that can and will significantly move prices - especially in trillion dollar asset classes like crypto - so they are actually indeed selling not buying.

Many institutions are still constrained from investing in spot BTC and even stocks that act as BTC proxies ie there is an untapped market out there not represented in the data. The expectations around Trump winding back some regs and introducing others that would open further access to those investment houses that are as yet unable to access the market is what I'm looking toward.

And I should have mentioned corporate adoption as the other main catalyst, though I wouldn't be surprised if State governments in the US, or other non-Western advanced nations start buying as well. But it's the institutional I'm mainly looking for with corporates in 2nd place.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Hmmmmm,
Investing or trading game?

I don't trade.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Always advisable to focus on the big picture. Aside from huge amounts of volatility which has been the norm since inception, BTC's price explosions come in clusters, as does the FUD.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

That "wealth transfer" is looking pretty devastating.

 

[IPDA]

Still is bearish.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

My bias makes me Still is bearish.

Fixed it for ya.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Trump's Commerce Secretary nominee is another bullish sign for BTC. Howard Lutnick's Cantor Financial is seeking to establish a $2billion lending facility for it's clients who would use BTC as collateral.

U.S. financial services and bond trading firm Cantor Fitzgerald is reportedly discussing a multibillion-dollar Bitcoin-backed lending program with the help of Tether.

The proposed program would allow clients to borrow dollars using Bitcoin as collateral. Initially, the operation would begin with a $2 billion allotment, though it has the potential to expand as crypto sees more adoption, according to a Bloomberg report on Saturday.

https://decrypt.co/293359/cantor-fi...ion-bitcoin-lending-program-via-tether-report

Here is Lutnick addressing the Senate Committee:

And Bessent and Lutnick watching as Trump signs the order to create a US Sovereign Wealth Fund:

 

[IPDA]

Fixed it for ya.

₿ullsheit

 

[mmm....shiney!]

₿ullsheit

Ok.

So do you want BTC to succeed as the premier asset for protecting wealth from currency degradation and as a major financial asset for collateralised loans?

In order to achieve this of course it's MC needs to be at least $10 trillion USD. So it's still a bit of a journey.

 

[IPDA]

Ok.

So do you want BTC to succeed as the premier asset for protecting wealth from currency degradation and as a major financial asset for collateralised loans?

In order to achieve this of course it's MC needs to be at least $10 trillion USD. So it's still a bit of a journey.

I’m a trader, not a HODL’er.