Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  • Total voters
    146
TreasureHunter said:
When food and paying utilities becomes more important than speculative investments, people won't buy into cryptos.
But that's ordinary people.

I wonder what the rich are doing. And I don't mean the super rich, even the "small rich" who are worth 1-2 million USD or more. I wonder if they're looking at this as a buying opportunity.

I doubt that people will simply give up investing in crypto in a simple disgust & loss of appetite. There's too much crypto infrastructure (with wallets and exchanges etc.) set up.

I just can't believe the would be over. Not even if Bitcoin sank down to 6-7 k.
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Cant speak for everyone, but wealth makers buy speculative assets on the way up, if timed wrong sell and wait.

I am not talking black and white on the sell side, there is some leeway no one buys at $1 but sells becuase it dropped 1c, but most people with wealth to protect is not going to hodl at 80c

Buying at the bottom is a mugs game.
 
JohnnyBravo300 said:
Plus being digital and relying on power and internet its destined to failure.
When people need it most it will be turned off. Annnnd its gone.
A good money cant have those types of issues or rely on someone else to give it value.
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Aren't apocalyptic scenarios detrimental to all forms of money? How are you even going to track the spot price of metals if the internet gets shut off? Then you'll be entirely reliant on a small, local economy to value your asset. To be clear, your BTC doesn't get destroyed with a power outage, the blockchain will still exist and it will just rejuvenate like The Blob. In such a scenario your BTC is actually more safe than your gold since nobody could access it to steal it. You shouldn't have 100% of your wealth in these assets anyway. I think it's a weak argument for discrediting BTC. Same as the BTC bros talking about confiscation and immobility of gold to infer that it's useless.
 
heartastack said:
Aren't apocalyptic scenarios detrimental to all forms of money? How are you even going to track the spot price of metals if the internet gets shut off? Then you'll be entirely reliant on a small, local economy to value your asset. To be clear, your BTC doesn't get destroyed with a power outage, the blockchain will still exist and it will just rejuvenate like The Blob. In such a scenario your BTC is actually more safe than your gold since nobody could access it to steal it. You shouldn't have 100% of your wealth in these assets anyway. I think it's a weak argument for discrediting BTC. Same as the BTC bros talking about confiscation and immobility of gold to infer that it's useless.
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I dont think its detrimental at all. Gold has been there done that many times and its been fine through everything.
I was just stating one of the most obvious flaws in Btc as money, it only exists in the electronic world as another specualtive asset and thats not good for a dependable money.
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
When you put your money in, it goes the opposite of what you predict. When you watch from the sidelines, you predict it perfectly
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It is also important to note: who moves the price of crypto? I think the big players and the investors in the middle. It's not like the "dumb masses" would be in it.

I am curious whether the price of crypto will keep going down now as we enter this summer's paradygm:
1. global food crisis
2. global energy crisis: EU just launched the oil embargo against Russia (see what embargo Russia comes up with)
3. inflation (especially in the EU)
4. monkeypox (gosh, I hope this craze doesn't take off)

<<< will people put their money into crypto? (perhaps due to inflation yes... but when a food crisis comes, I think food is a priority)

It will be interesting to see.
 
TreasureHunter said:
It is also important to note: who moves the price of crypto? I think the big players and the investors in the middle. It's not like the "dumb masses" would be in it.

I am curious whether the price of crypto will keep going down now as we enter this summer's paradygm:
1. global food crisis
2. global energy crisis: EU just launched the oil embargo against Russia (see what embargo Russia comes up with)
3. inflation (especially in the EU)
4. monkeypox (gosh, I hope this craze doesn't take off)

<<< will people put their money into crypto? (perhaps due to inflation yes... but when a food crisis comes, I think food is a priority)

It will be interesting to see.
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Personally the major movers of coins are those who have few months of savings and living just above paycheck to paycheck.

Whales will ride it out as they have conviction and money, those watching hodl vids will get wiped out when they need the cash.

Robinhood and Coinbase trading numbers and subscibers numbers represents the quintessential FOMO buyers.

When times are good they are shouting "Let it ride" at Las Vegas, when times are hard they are worried about the cost of petrol and looking for stations accepting BNPL
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
When you put your money in, it goes the opposite of what you predict. When you watch from the sidelines, you predict it perfectly
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Not so fast. There are major trend lines of support and resistance. Traders trade within these bands until support or resistance is broken and then recalibrate. There are obviously small rally's and short squeezes along the way down. Mostly only useful for large $ sums and leveraged traders.

Here's a very basic example that cannot be described any clearer for non-pro traders imo.

 
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heartastack said:
Solid analysis..
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Well I agree that with all Central Banks doing quantitative tightening, raising interests and speaking of further interest rate rises, it seems to me that all assets that have any debt associated with their valuations will go down in price. Cryptos are included because of leverage and their perception as risk-on assets.
Unfortunately, imo, precious metals also fall into that category because the prices are determined by paper and futures markets.
Only cash in the bank isn't affected
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
Well I agree that with all Central Banks doing quantitative tightening, raising interests and speaking of further interest rate rises, it seems to me that all assets that have any debt associated with their valuations will go down in price. Cryptos are included because of leverage and their perception as risk-on assets.
Unfortunately, imo, precious metals also fall into that category because the prices are determined by paper and futures markets.
Only cash in the bank isn't affected
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I get you and agree. Where I don't see eye-to-eye with a lot of others is their definition of 'cheap' for crypto, especially in a risk-off economy. What does cheap and expensive even mean when there is no reference point except for historical price action (which is not a terrible reference for the top 20 cryptos but still pretty wishy-washy imo). I just don't see any downside to sitting on the sidelines tbh, I don't even find dollar cost averaging attractive right now, even inflation is unlikely to erode your cash as fast. Would rather stack cash for a big buy when conditions change.
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
Well I agree that with all Central Banks doing quantitative tightening, raising interests and speaking of further interest rate rises, it seems to me that all assets that have any debt associated with their valuations will go down in price. Cryptos are included because of leverage and their perception as risk-on assets.
Unfortunately, imo, precious metals also fall into that category because the prices are determined by paper and futures markets.
Only cash in the bank isn't affected
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Cash are determine by Inflations, How much of your dollars can purchases.
People still think plastics dollars still worthing more?
Not really , with Fuel price up ... everything will be more or getting expensive.
The snow ball effects starts the chains, whether you like it or not... this will affect everyone in the way.
 
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