Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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    146
markcoinoz said:
I sold everything, including ETH, SOL, and a few others.
Also sold a small amount of BTC and kept some cash
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Sold out of most of my alt positions today in my personal and SMSF portfolio, save for a few bits that are locked or are just scraps. Even though I'm notoriously bad at picking bottoms the Joseph Wang video I watched has convinced me that our central banks will keep raising rates because that's the only thing they understand. And our own Treasurer has been saying that he's not concerned if the Oz economy goes into recession, he's only concerned about inflation. These guys are making some hideously poor decisions.

So I kept half of my personal BTC and all of my SMSF BTC. Keeping it as cash now in my mortgage offset account and in our SMSF IP offset account. Will follow suit with most of my AUD shares, will keep my US shares as they're mainly dividend stocks and I only own a little bit.
 
I'll admit I haven't read all 100+ pages of this thread but I'll contribute.
I was earning XRP for renting out my compute power over 10 years ago - i lost it all because i lost my keys
When I learned about BTC, it was around $100 - I was too broke to even buy one!
Now I have created 2 of my own tokens for past projects. And am about to buy some more.

For those that think crypto is a dice roll, I agree for short-term plays. However, the underlying concept of blockchain has the potential to change government as we know it.
And let's face it, it needs a change. (ps I work for a govt agency, I see it up close)
 
Aelfred said:
Celsius pausing all withdrawals. Not your keys, not your coins etc. MtGox 2.0? Looks like 20% yields weren't sustainable, who would have thought.

Tether is the largest investor in Celsius and Celsius is one of their very, VERY few "authorised" customers.

https://blog.celsius.network/a-memo-to-the-celsius-community-59532a06ecc6
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Polar.bear.Stacker said:
Celsius just froze all accounts and stopped all withdrawals. Mates of mine say they're going under due to a bank run. That's more money lost. I lost more money there too
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I got lucky, my spidy sense worked properly for once, withdrew all my BTC and ETH that were held in Celsius only a couple of weeks ago. Not sure why I sensed something was going to go down.

I think it was around the start of the crypto dump, people were cracking it for the loan collateral liquidations due to the precipitous drop in the Cel token’s value. Not long after I pulled the majority of my holdings out. Phew
 
mmm....shiney! said:
https://www.silverstackers.com/foru...the-crypto-bubble.87398/page-101#post-1243708

It's like the Wild West.
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I sold about a month ago. Bought in $35k hit 40k than dropped to 30K when I sold for $7.5k usd loss. Since it went close or over 40K but looking now it was a good decision.


I am out of BTC for a while, until retail gamblers are back. Waiting for next Fed and Reserve interest hike and see where we are.

I predict 0.4 to 0.6% Reserve and 0.5% to 0.75% Feds hike next meeting.

Demand destruction is better for the polies than $200 usd oil
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
That's a sniffle away. What's happening though? It can't just be because of Celsius. Is it just cascading margin calls?
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It has been the greatest liquidity splurge in world history, and the lowest interest rates in world history [orchestrated since the Global Financial Crisis] that had allowed the Crypto/Tulip mania to take place.

This has come to an end with the drying up of liquidity and the rocketing up of the interest rates.

All fairytales have to come to an end sometime.

Sorry to be so blunt.
 
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And the nightmare with Celsius. Third party risk can be a real b1tch like that.

Many people hodling cryptos and stocks will learn a valuable and hard lesson through this little adventure.
 
The $22k level seems to be holding for now.

Z H is reporting that it is the Asians buying up what the Americans are selling now, not sure I buy that simplistic explanation as
there are some big fish in the crypto markets who could be influencing things.

Anyway, it is going to be an interesting week in all the markets with the interest rate decision and other things.

Living in interesting & turbulent times does not have to be a Chinese curse, it can de a financial blessing
if you have stacked the precious metals in the good times to tide you over the difficult times.
 
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JohnnyBravo300 said:
And the nightmare with Celsius. Third party risk can be a real b1tch like that.

Many people hodling cryptos and stocks will learn a valuable and hard lesson through this little adventure.
Click to expand...

Hodling is ok for people who have little knowledge of investing. Most who invest in anything have no idea what they are holding. Most beilve reading the PR from the coin/company is good research.

Wealth is made when one learns when to sell
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
That's a sniffle away. What's happening though? It can't just be because of Celsius. Is it just cascading margin calls?
Click to expand...

Apparently it used to be called financial contagion. No market will be immune, cash is king.

Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 8.25.25 am.png

gold_1d_o_USD_z.png


Mirroring the daily falls as a % in DJI.

A few interesting points to come out of IA's latest vid, I'll break it into a number of posts:


Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 8.44.51 am.png

I have some BTC locked there at the moment earning 5.5%, I can't do anything about it until the beginning of July but I'm not concerned about Nexo's capacity to weather this Defi rout as they are conservative, but that may not stop a run from concerned deposit holders. We'll see what happens when the fixed term expiry date approaches.
 
More from IA:

Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 9.07.52 am.png

And external market analysis from about 15:30 onwards, including discussion around the 200 DMA and who's bought the dip.

In particular from @TheRealPlanC among a couple of others:

Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 9.22.08 am.png
I'm not so sure. I don't think the young market has seen a threat like what we're witnessing ie the "perfect storm" of supply side constraints brought on by the pandemic, the war, massive underinvestment in infrastructure both at a private and public level, the obsession with the bond market and using interest rates to tame inflationary pressure that is completely outside the scope of monetary policy and politicians making noises about getting "budget disasters" under control when the budget disaster is actually one of not spending enough into the real economy.

The prudent move IMO would be to wait until the Monetarists begin moving in a different direction to the one they're intent upon pursuing at the moment. Unless someone has money to risk. :p
 
And 200WMA has been hit, I'm holding off for now, the macro environment is different this time around, rate hikes on the horizon, risk off environment, also relative low volume slow bleed rather than mass capitulation. Maybe headed lower towards 300WMA. I'm waiting for high volume down wick to DCA in, not catching a falling knife right now.
Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 11.02.13 am.png
 
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