kramer said:all just my 2c
Nice write up kramer, thanks for taking the time.
Do you have an opinion on CUL or BYR ?
I'm at square 1 with these two, although been sitting on them for a while.
kramer said:all just my 2c
kramer said:southerncross my thoughts.
ADV- have spod but the resource size is the questionable thing. i still have a smallish position in them. it may run. good grades of spod but not as thick as i would like on the drilling so far. still early days. i may buy back in to increase exposure.
DKO - too small - i have no interest there. they may be able to expand the resource base but the tenement is limited in size and the small resource is low grade. DKO might JV with PLS for mining.
PIO - have a considerable investment there, expect at least a doubling from here near term and they are diversified which i quite like. got on at 2.2, expect easily over 10c near term.
BGS - large resource. largest current lithium stock position is in this one. late to the party got in at 11c, averaged up to 13.5c. happy to hold here. should have started researching a year ago.
VMC - nearology to dko / pls. i have a fair chunk here on the chance they rerate but i will look to exit that after disappointing results with DKO. i expect it can still jump with it's tiny market cap and lots of tenements to play with but for now it's going nowhere and there's a bot messing around everytime i try to sell. will have a crack on the open on monday. naturally they will announce big news when i sell out.
GXY - sold off fully there after a run from 30 - 48c. they will likely do alright but the hardrock resource is a while away.
EMH - have a minimal position here. great resource which i believe they can double in size but the low grade is the problem.
few options you might consider for diversification:
BAR - cobalt resource and a sexy high quality one at that. if your looking to diversify there it's a solid play..
CDV - expecting increase in size of their gold resource, i'm overweight on this one also. 3 drills on site, news should come thick and fast of a massive pit size resource. i might sell heads and buy options. dont expire until 2019 and are in the money.
FND - lowest AISC copper miner, mining in indonesia for years and upscaling their plant which should come online june to august. not exciting but making money in a bear market and with a huge hedge book worth millions at current copper prices.
next week for my punts:
PSC - resource the size of BGS, spodumene and also amblygonite (8-10% grade) which is higher grade than spodumene (4-8% grade) and sells for a premium for glass / ceramics industry. Zimbabwe is not as bad as people say and is the 5th highest exporter of lithium currently. Should easily double / triple the share price near term IMO and they have 5 gold mines which are being refurbished for low cost production. historical mines being brought online again with new techniques.
exploration target is (15-18 million tons at 3 - 5% Li2O.) management is solid and cashed up. they also have a option announced recently for a 12km long gold tenement which they may exercise. i'm holding 660,000 shares there. will look to increase up to 2m worth if i can get on it now before a run back up in price. expecting 2 bags from here very near term to catch up to bgs market cap. this will of course increase as bgs creeps up on drilling announcements and PSC drilling.
AZS - best silver play on the asx i believe. They are drilling at the moment and are also hitting gold. i'm holding but looking to increase below $0.42. jumps in the price of silver will see it run as well as increasing the resource which i believe they will do.
cxx - ran out of money to play on this one, can't buy everything! It's trending upwards. CXX have a jorc'd niobium resource which is required in steel making. there are very few niobium producers worldwide and their plan to production are solid. they would be a takeover target for deep pockets for sure.
overall i will look to lower exposure to shares with economic headwinds being what they are. Spodumene resources will be the only ones viable in a downturn scenario so not too fussed expecially the ones diversified with gold.
gold stocks were sold down in the GFC but they bounced back just as fast and the price of gold didn't drop so it was just following the herd panicking not based on the fundamental commodity value.
all just my 2c
scrooged said:kramer said:all just my 2c
Nice write up kramer, thanks for taking the time.
Do you have an opinion on CUL or BYR ?
I'm at square 1 with these two, although been sitting on them for a while.
Caput Lupinum said:Lithium is a bubble waiting to pop. The amount of other base metal and gold explorers adding lithium to their tool kit is growing by the day. There's no immediate increase in demand to warrant such a frenzy and the big suppliers such as Chengdu and Albemarle could easily ramp up supply if needed
Caput Lupinum said:There will be a broader market and economic downturn over the next few years that will impact most industrial metals including lithium. Get back to me after the downturn I'll have interest in lithium
bellinvest said:Will that stop people purchasing and driving automobiles, bikes, trucks, buses, boats, lawnmowers, forklifts, tractor's, trains... using power tools, playing with battery toys, wind power generation, using mobiles... what about at-home energy storage systems. All of which are cheaper to run AND maintain when compared to their current competitors... its a easy sales gig for a recession really;
finicky said:Lithium mining/exploration stocks are a bubble in the making. They are a con.
All the rationalisation about lithium itself is just a tool to inflate the price of stocks flying the lithium flag.
None of you who into these stocks will hang around for production and a share of the profits coz you suspect it isnt going to happen.
Caput Lupinum said:bellinvest said:Will that stop people purchasing and driving automobiles, bikes, trucks, buses, boats, lawnmowers, forklifts, tractor's, trains... using power tools, playing with battery toys, wind power generation, using mobiles... what about at-home energy storage systems. All of which are cheaper to run AND maintain when compared to their current competitors... its a easy sales gig for a recession really;
Well yes hence why it's called a downturn. Consumers, companies and governments will reduce spending which will mean there is less demand for lithium, iron ore, nickel, zinc and copper all of which go into making the items you mentioned.
I agree that lithium will play an increasingly important role in technology in the future. I've never denied this. What I don't agree on is the straight line lithium mining investors believe it will take to get there without taking into account the broader economic headwinds going into the future. Lithium as it stands today, not 5 years into the future but today is in a bubble hyped up by Telsa pumpers and the like. It'll crash before it advances
There is simply not enough supply of lithium for the immediate foreseeable future to meet the incredible demand increase.
Are you saying PLS/GXY/NMT/AJM aren't going to start production? PFS all nearing completion... and puff... they all just throw them away... bin their off-take contracts'...
like EV's was some kind of mirage?
finicky said:quote=bellinvest
There is simply not enough supply of lithium for the immediate foreseeable future to meet the incredible demand increase.
At this time, just a promulgated theory that will make a few people rich is what i will believe. The motive behind the 'investing' fad is obvious. The bubble is in the hype, the exaggeration, the excitement being generated.
Are you saying PLS/GXY/NMT/AJM aren't going to start production? PFS all nearing completion... and puff... they all just throw them away... bin their off-take contracts'...
I mean, that says it all - not in PFS (pre-feasibilty study), that would be laughable enough, but "PFS all nearing completion". I have been in junior companies for years, waiting through the torturous processes as they go through great drill campaigns, pre feasibility study, definitive feasibilty study, bank loans, share raisings, development, MINING, more cap raisings (due to some things they didn't foresee, like they havent squeezed every dollar possible out of the scam yet) and finally - after the last failed cap raise - administration.
like EV's was some kind of mirage?
Electric vehicles are being conflated with lithium, which in turn is being thrown in with gypping greasy little australian listed resource explorers.
finicky said:Yes Boneyard - SILVER! lol
Its staring us right in the face.
"There is simply not enough supply of Silver for the immediate foreseeable future to meet the incredible demand increase."
Soon silver'll put on $5 or so and you'll see prospects spring up everywhere. If you see a photo on a forum of some well fed looking MD holding a piece of silver mineralised rock, thats the buy signal. Look for for the expression of quiet triumph on his face. Nicely blended with the character lines of good will towards shareholders. He should look like an amiable, hands in the soil, uncle.
Caput Lupinum said:sarcasm on an internet forum is an art form