I doubt they will. They simply aren’t rich enough. And the way they’re going are not going to be.
There’s a marked difference between the size of an economy and how strong an economy is.
China’s GDP per capita is USD7 755 whereas the US is USD54 541. I’m predicting India (USD2 104) will have a stronger economy than China down the track because it is a democratic, free-market nation . Whether India surpasses the US as the most powerful economy I’m not sure.
Australia’s is USD56 919, of course we’re nowhere near as big as the US economy obviously.
Yes, there are many doubts regarding China's rise. It's the most isolated great power (geographically, politically etc.), there are major discrepancies regarding the income from one are to the other.
But I still think China can become the greatest economic power in the world, especially if they know how to do it:
- China has imported technology/knowledge, which can propel it much higher in terms of technology (this propagates into science, military technology as well, not just consumer products...), while at the same time the US has almost forgotten how to make shoes!
- China could rise on the back of the petrodollar's demise (if they find a recipe against it: e.g. Chinese gold standard, stronger Yuan etc.)
- China's export economy could shrink, but they could stimulate internal consumption more
- more and more Chinese companies are investing in Europe and the USA: not it's the west that's working for them (producing products for Chinese companies)
- should China dominate trade routes (also establishing their own infrastructure along these routes: ports, railways, airports), they will gain a lot from international trade (even from merely the transportation aspect)
- China is teaming up with Russia and Germany has always wanted to have stronger ties with Russia: I see a triangle forming!
- the EU is opening its arms to more trade with China (seems like the US might as well remain alone while China and the EU are getting closer)
- China buys a lot of gold and their internal consumption is high enough as well
- China has set foot in Africa (buying up land, stimulating agriculture)
So, basically what I see it that China is trying to change itself in order to be able to "climb the ladder" and surpass the US globally. The way the Chinese economy is working is changing.
Obviously they have to shift from the export economy to something else.
If you watch carefully, the US is slowly slowly losing ground in global politics. When this happens, others will "fill the gap". China will only have to gain from this.
It is a gradual process.
The US did enjoy peace during the two World Wars, the Cold War and everything that came after. But currently the US is gradually getting isolated. They're losing sympathy fast and influence gradually.
Some people have written the BRIC nations (I intentionally left South Africa out, as it's a far smaller regional power). I wouldn't write BRIC down. I think they're in a "slump", but they might rise again.
Brazil, Russia, India and China will certainly gain from the redistribution of global influence spheres. They will grow regionally, but only China has the "tentacles" to become a contender to the US.
I see the possibility. No, I don't think China's going to be able to "step" on the rest of the world. Too many rivals, regional enemies and limitations. They will have to make many compromises.
