Thoughts on Silver At This Point?

[RetardedMonkey]

I'm with you Ernster.

I think the whole 'manipulation' thing is a bit of a joke, sure it occurs, but not to the point that people claim.

Been wondering lately too with the comments of economies going to implode, that if the constant debt system we have isn't sustainable.... then why has it sustained itself for so long...? :lol:

 

[Pirocco]

Oh yes it was, you were just looking in the wrong places, or seeing what you wanted to see. You can repost this claim this as many times as you like, but it still isn't true.
Just take a short stroll through the SS posts around that time:
...
I could go on all night, but I wont.
What is interesting when reading the posts around this period is that the reasoning is still the same as it is today:
Silver always rises because it is finally discovering it's intrinsic value, and always falls due to manipulation, even though it is the same players in the same paper market

You are denying positivism near price peaks, and negativism near price bottoms?
I didn't scroll to pages.
I didn't focus on places.
I looked at everything that passed on all places.
Based on a "long stroll". Not as a post action but as realtime.
Positivism near price peaks.
Negativism near price bottoms.
So "oh yes", the correct attitude wasn't there.
With the 'wrong' attitude being 'emitted' by people that share the liking of silverpaper techtalk.
I could now dig into how it's possible that these people emitted so wrong, but I won't

 

[wrcmad]

Why didnt we see negativism at $43?
Why didnt we see negativism at $50?

You are denying positivism near price peaks, and negativism near price bottoms?

Not at all.
I am simply denying your claim of the lack of negative sentiment that existed around the price peak.
It was clearly there, along with suttle warnings, but most were so bullish they chose not to hear it.
Positive sentiment exists everywhere when markets are doing well, vice versa negative sentiment abounds when they are tanking - that is the herd mentality of markets (fear and greed), and this forum is not immune.

 

[valuecreator]

How about silver as a hedge against fraud?

The silver prices you're all talking about is determined by


a paper market

not a physical market

its a joke...


The banksters will inflate assets classes that suits them (stocks, RE, bonds) and deflate
the competition (gold, silver) as long as they want, because of derivatives.

At one point though the compound interest equation catches back, Kondratieff winter comes to an end,

and the only way the reset the matrix is gold revaluation.

in the mean time,

is the LIBOR rate a fake?
is unemployement rate a fake?
is inflation rate a fake?
are COT fake?
is GDP a fake?


is silver price a fake?
is gold price fake?

even the GSR is fake! check out any dealer and you'll find it's around 50 right now.

I suggest you set-up you're own valuation of assets. If the market gives you a bargain, why complain?

Mines are barely making a profit. That should tell you everything.

The question is: with all the money printing going on, why silver price not going up?

the answer is: a tiny amount of this money has been used on the short side to depress the price, for economic and political reasons. This is nothing new, they've been doing this with silver since the Opium Wars, many many times.

Right now they're sending gold to China, they already know how to get it back...

What I see now is banksters going long physical and going short paper. Typical.

 

[greyman68]

"buy more" is my motto

 

[Pirocco]

I want to know WHY money printing isnt working anymore and why people still believe more of the same will make the price continue to rise.

Silver investors just presume silver will keep rising and ignore the fact that the huge money printing in the last 2 years isn't doing anything for the silver price.

Forget manipulation or looking at charts from the 70's, I'm taking about 2013.

The answer is quite obvious though: a part of the population cutted its spendings and compensated for the continued spending due to the money printing.
When will this population part cease to cut its spendings?
When it stopped to become a choice.
See, some things are needed to live.

Since stacking isn't investing, silver "investors" aren't stackers, but people that want other peoples money for free.
Those that now sit ready to buy back in, and need enough others to concern so that they hesitate to buy or even sell low.

There wasn't 'huge money printing' in the last 2 years. The by far biggest printing was done 2008-2010.
The silver price tripled due to expectations of higher inflation that caused more people stacking more silver, and more people buying 'remote' silver/shares as Exchange Traded Funds.
If their silver demand can absorb the silver supply at the same rate as it did since 2008, then $30 price level is sustained. I'm a stacker, and I take part in that absorption. There are others out there.
And I don't "believe" the bottom price will continue to rise.
At best a hang for some further years (2 passed) in which the parasites spending continues and the population part that cutted spendings tries to finance their living.
In the time I've been on the silver bandwagon, I noticed that those that claim that the price will continue to rise, only do so when the price is driven up by bogus demand (see my 'investors' sentence) of which they are part of.
And I don't need that belief in order to buy silver.
Because I understand real economics.
In meantime I also learnt abit about the bogus economics of the parasites too, haha.

 

[Pirocco]

Not at all.
I am simply denying your claim of the lack of negative sentiment that existed around the price peak.
It was clearly there, along with suttle warnings, but most were so bullish they chose not to hear it.
Positive sentiment exists everywhere when markets are doing well, vice versa negative sentiment abounds when they are tanking - that is the herd mentality of markets (fear and greed), and this forum is not immune.

Of course the negative sentiment was there.
I remember the Kitco forum in april 2011. I bookmarked a topic containing some posts of people with a negative sentiment. In which I took part (I was a silver newbie then though, so I knew little about the silver "investor" money for nothing club scene).
I didn't need to bookmark the positive sentiment topics. Because every day of april, 10 new topics shouting out the positivism, were created.

And your terminology "markets are doing well", says enough for me, because it illustrates how you look at the market: as a milking cow.
When I see the silver price rise, I first check WHO is buying to cause that price to rise. And THEN I judge whether the silver market is growing for real, or for fake, the latter being the silver purchases from the profitseekers, that later on dump it all, then start again to spread negativism, then buy back in low, to switch polarity again.

I have a good example of one:
April 2011:
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80419 "Great way to start the week......don't you think?"
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80243 "Hump Day...........Up Day"
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80318 "Killer Thursday............Movin' on up"
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=80419 "A Fabulous Friday............Great Finish For The Week"
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=81069 "A Thundering Thursday...............Look at that puppy go!!"

Afterwards the user said this:
"My advice has always been to learn how to watch things. I didn't know I was going to sell my silver until the day I did. It was strictly a technical move. Predicting these things ahead of time is just not possible will any consistency . I did mention that it looked like a bear flag but when that bear flag would break down was anyone's guess. You just had to pay attention to see the signs of it breaking down."

The last couple weeks before may 2011, about every day he spreaded positivism.
And then he SOLD.
Yes, a "technical move".
He saw the market as a cow to milk.
Hello?

 

[wrcmad]

Since stacking isn't investing, silver "investors" aren't stackers, but people that want other peoples money for free.
Those that now sit ready to buy back in, and need enough others to concern so that they hesitate to buy or even sell low.

 

[Pirocco]

The same happened on Kitco: former (haha) positivism spreaders replying with 'funny pictures'.
But alot of their targeted victims got what I ment, and didn't repeat the errors in later bogus uptrends.
And that was my funny picture.

 

[wrcmad]

And your terminology "markets are doing well", says enough for me, because it illustrates how you look at the market: as a milking cow.

Yes. But you should be happy about that, because it seems I am only milking the parasites.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-485971.html#p485971
My goal is to not sell people silver at a price that subsequently gets pushed down dozens %'s.

:lol:
So, given you have stated you buy in dips at low points or "floor prices", please explain the difference between:
Selling to those unwary poor souls at a high price, just before price is plundered, and;
Buying low from those unwary poor souls, just before a price skyrockets?

 

[Nickoru]

I happen to be from damned Russia and here the asshole government sells their silver 'investment' crappy coins presently at about 60 $bucks per oz! That's absolutely nuts and we, local stackers, try to import (on the edge of contraband) from wherever we can. So, I simply can't sell any stuff on highs 'cause there's no guarantee I can buy it back later at better price even if silver plummets.

 

[Pirocco]

And your terminology "markets are doing well", says enough for me, because it illustrates how you look at the market: as a milking cow.

Yes. But you should be happy about that, because it seems I am only milking the parasites.

http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-485971.html#p485971
My goal is to not sell people silver at a price that subsequently gets pushed down dozens %'s.

:lol:
So, given you have stated you buy in dips at low points or "floor prices", please explain the difference between:
Selling to those unwary poor souls at a high price, just before price is plundered, and;
Buying low from those unwary poor souls, just before a price skyrockets?

:lol:
I don't spread positivism when the price is driven up by those that sit ready to sell.
I don't spread negativism when the price is driven down by those that sit ready to buy back in.
I don't play the cyclic game.
If the price 'skyrockets', I don't sell.
Instead I watch Simpsons tv instead of Silver tv.
Until the price 'dives', and I shoot the ammo I saved during the Simpsons.
See, I'm not a 'technical analysis' guy.

 

[hawkeye]

What is interesting when reading the posts around this period is that the reasoning is still the same as it is today:
Silver always rises because it is finally discovering it's intrinsic value, and always falls due to manipulation.

LOL true.

Look I'm just trying to improve understanding of this whole silver market and I'm yet to get a satisfactory answer.

It was easy for the silver gurus to be correct when silver was going up

But none of those same people can tell us why it hasn't gone up on 2 years despite all the money printing.

I heard the same arguments over and over usually regurgitated from other people.

That's my problem.

I want to know WHY money printing isnt working anymore and why people still believe more of the same will make the price continue to rise.

Silver investors just presume silver will keep rising and ignore the fact that the huge money printing in the last 2 years isn't doing anything for the silver price.

Forget manipulation or looking at charts from the 70's, I'm taking about 2013.

The markets ebb and flow. People react like a frenzied crowd when they think they are onto a good thing and that's why instead of gentle, ever-increasing curves up, you get spikes then crashes then doing nothing for ages until people have forgotten the crash.

It's not as simple as Ben gives people money and they spend it on what he wants, or even what we want.

But there's all that liquidity sloshing around and it has to go somewhere. It looks like it is currently going into the stock market, but that will crash at some point also as it always does.

It's all best guess in the end. If you don't feel comfortable with the fundamentals (and by that I mean the currency war aspect, not "there's a shortage of silver"), then you should probably sell and look for something else.

Maybe the bull market is over. I would be surprised myself because we still have IR's in the basement, and massive increasing debt out there. Everything is pointing towards more CB intervention. But hey, I never claim to be right and know exactly, so I could be wrong and the bull could be dead. Personally, I'm assuming it isn't.

 

[SilverEye]

If you are buying purely as a hedge, buy the cheapest, ugliest bars you can. I was at the LCS on Friday, he was showing me a slabbed MS70 Silver Eagle he bought from a guy who got it as a gift. Paid his standard 30% under spot, just like if you brought in old silver junk.

 

[Pirocco]

Maybe the bull market is over. I would be surprised myself because we still have IR's in the basement, and massive increasing debt out there. Everything is pointing towards more CB intervention. But hey, I never claim to be right and know exactly, so I could be wrong and the bull could be dead. Personally, I'm assuming it isn't.

Central bank intervention (money creation/intrest rate manipulation) is actually just the same as tax and legal privileges.
So the parasites don't need central bank intervention to steal, they can just do it openly, and since the parasites started to work together on a world level, as to take out victims' alternatives, they have it easier to do it more openly than in the past. Look at the tax increasings in alot countries. The added regulation. The draconic measures against tax evasion (what they name as 'fraud'), alike drastically lowered cash transaction limits, reporting duties, and so on.
So let's use above to determine whether 'bull market' (I don't name inflation based trends bulls or bears but lets ignore this) is over or not.
In order to end the 'bull market', it needs the parasites to do something about themselves.
Well, I heard and read alot of their statements and claims and promises.
But everytime I checked what they did, it was the opposite.
In the 15 years I read politicians promises about less administration/less burocracy/less state personell, all three items heavily grew instead.
The last one was two weeks ago, from a local town, they said they'd cut in personell, X jobs would disappear. 3 days later some protest raised, and now they say it was just a thought experiment, nothing has been decided and they would debate about it.
And that seems to be the eternal answer.

And that, gives an obvious answer to the question.
That 'bull market' isn't over when they say it.
It's over when the targeted victims of their theft say it.
And my statement about this was, and still is, more silver.
At todays price level, well, I was and still am the buying side.
Seems to be a returning coincidence, the price dropped in the last 5 months from $35-36 to $28-29, and the talk about the end of the bull market became again prominent.
It's like some like to swim behind the boat.
Sounds weird, but there is a simple explanation. It all depends on their "technical position!"

 

[Henry Wartooth]

I actually sold 50% of my silver a few weeks ago, mostly because I'm just not confident in it right now. I think the price will fall further before it starts to pick up again.

 

[worldbubble]

If you are buying purely as a hedge, buy the cheapest, ugliest bars you can. I was at the LCS on Friday, he was showing me a slabbed MS70 Silver Eagle he bought from a guy who got it as a gift. Paid his standard 30% under spot, just like if you brought in old silver junk.

that's a point)))) ... have visited pawn shop ... it bought chinese commemorative silver coins for 10-50% below spot from the old guy ... because 1) crowd here doesn't care about silver; 2) some people don't know they can make 10-50 times what they've been offered by pawn shop. The old guy collected the coin back in late 80s, so be sure there were all the silver pandas from that years, as well bunch of lunars though with toning and some without capsules ...

so, I've made a conclusion, that I'd better buy some bar at spot than go for numismatics (Joke!)

nevertheless, I'm still buying silver at spot and buying silver as numismatic item ... each has the place in my portfolio and being traded as such

 

[Pirocco]

If you are buying purely as a hedge, buy the cheapest, ugliest bars you can. I was at the LCS on Friday, he was showing me a slabbed MS70 Silver Eagle he bought from a guy who got it as a gift. Paid his standard 30% under spot, just like if you brought in old silver junk.

The thing is, those characteristics in the buying phase, tend to reoccur in the selling phase.
So I doubt cheapest/ugliest makes much difference in the aspect of hedging.
This probably also applies to most expensive, most beautiful. You pay more. You get more. In terms of hedging, not much difference, again.
I think the main pro-argument for common/popular silver is that it is most liquid. Meaning: it's easiest to find buyers for it. It doesn't require people with specialty knowledge (melt/scrap recycling/numismatic value/dedicated hobby). I think liquidity is what matters in hedging against high inflation/crisis, in times where your silver is ment to keep you up financially. Who knows what the market scope will be next year or next decade. A crisis tends to disrupt long economical chains first, and there goes the link to your numismatic buddy on the other side of the ocean.

 

[Pirocco]

I actually sold 50% of my silver a few weeks ago, mostly because I'm just not confident in it right now. I think the price will fall further before it starts to pick up again.

I remember from last summer that alot did that, as indicated by a raising Comex #positions number yet a price that stayed hanging.
14/08/2012 23402 $27.82
07/08/2012 21852 $27.94
31/07/2012 21362 $27.95
24/07/2012 15455 $26.96
17/07/2012 15135 $27.23
10/07/2012 14107 $26.9
03/07/2012 17354 $28.05
26/06/2012 12011 $27.1
See? 23402-17354=6048 positions more but price about the same.
So 6048x5000=30 Moz silver sold thereat $28, in the hope to buy back in lower.
But it was driven to $35 instead.
Of course, you can be right, since it all depends on... all of us together.
If we sell now too, after you, then you'll have your buy back in lower chance.
Let's spread some negativism in order to make it happen!

 

[wrcmad]

See? 23402-17354=6048 positions more but price about the same.
So 6048x5000=30 Moz silver sold thereat $28, in the hope to buy back in lower.
But it was driven to $35 instead.

That's only looking at one side of the market.
For every seller, there is a buyer.
An alternate view is that there were 6048 positions = 30 Moz silver bought thereat $28, driving price up to $35.