If that's not a buy signal, then i don't know what is 
Thoughts on Silver At This Point?
- Thread starter Ernster
- Start date
Apology for bringing yet another chart and chart related commentary into this thread, but that's what always enters my thoughts on the metals. Let's take a brute simple approach - which is the only one I use anyway. Sometimes it helps to cut a chart up into blocks and sometimes to count. If you do this you will see that this long stagnation isn't silver going comatose. Maybe dormant with arousing awakening hormones imperceptibly trickling into the bloodstream.
Let me invite you to view the price action from September 2011 up till today as occurring within a horizontal $10 rectangle with upper limit of $36 and lower limit of $26. That's it - except for a blip - all the price action for 18 months has fallen within this width - 10 bucks is all we're worried about.
Look at the rallies within the rectangle and compare them with the falls. Each rally and fall is traversing $10 of price. Count the rough durations it takes to shift $10 - months will give the idea, but I've used another chart to give the weeks.
Sept 2011, fall took 1 week, following rally took 4 weeks - longer
Nov Dec 2011, fall took 9 weeks, following rally took 9 weeks - equal
Mar Apr May Jun 2012, fall took 17 weeks, following rally took 14 weeks - shorter
Oct to the present week, fall has taken 21 weeks, the longest period of fall yet and has not even reached the $26 lower limit of the rectangle
So within this 75 weeks of 'stagnation' the rallies to traverse the $10 of price are getting faster relative to the falls through $10. That's a form of positive momentum even though the price looks only to be going sideways.
Now another thing - where do you see the bottom of the correction since the top in April 2011? - The Base - I'm seeing it as the two lows Dec 2011 and June 2012. Count left and right. 8 months to get from the April top to the Dec low, 8 months to get from the June low to the present week. And this current fall is dawdling - 21 weeks so far and it still can't get down to $26! So the decisive move might not be too far off/
Let me invite you to view the price action from September 2011 up till today as occurring within a horizontal $10 rectangle with upper limit of $36 and lower limit of $26. That's it - except for a blip - all the price action for 18 months has fallen within this width - 10 bucks is all we're worried about.
Look at the rallies within the rectangle and compare them with the falls. Each rally and fall is traversing $10 of price. Count the rough durations it takes to shift $10 - months will give the idea, but I've used another chart to give the weeks.
Sept 2011, fall took 1 week, following rally took 4 weeks - longer
Nov Dec 2011, fall took 9 weeks, following rally took 9 weeks - equal
Mar Apr May Jun 2012, fall took 17 weeks, following rally took 14 weeks - shorter
Oct to the present week, fall has taken 21 weeks, the longest period of fall yet and has not even reached the $26 lower limit of the rectangle
So within this 75 weeks of 'stagnation' the rallies to traverse the $10 of price are getting faster relative to the falls through $10. That's a form of positive momentum even though the price looks only to be going sideways.
Now another thing - where do you see the bottom of the correction since the top in April 2011? - The Base - I'm seeing it as the two lows Dec 2011 and June 2012. Count left and right. 8 months to get from the April top to the Dec low, 8 months to get from the June low to the present week. And this current fall is dawdling - 21 weeks so far and it still can't get down to $26! So the decisive move might not be too far off/
The Chart That Tells You All You Need To Know About Gold
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...ells_You_All_You_Need_To_Know_About_Gold.html
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...ells_You_All_You_Need_To_Know_About_Gold.html
Someone on another forum posted the following, which is interesting but could just be him being paranoid.
"The reality is that the price of silver is actually still really quite high on a historical basis. If folks would focus strictly on price rather than what Mr. Bernanke is doing or anything else going on in the world they'd save themselves a lot of hardship.
Think of it this way, the role of financial media is designed to sell you a story that makes you disregard price based on some concept of the future. If you bought solely on price, imagine how grounded you'd feel right now. You wouldn't care at all about what people are saying."
"The reality is that the price of silver is actually still really quite high on a historical basis. If folks would focus strictly on price rather than what Mr. Bernanke is doing or anything else going on in the world they'd save themselves a lot of hardship.
Think of it this way, the role of financial media is designed to sell you a story that makes you disregard price based on some concept of the future. If you bought solely on price, imagine how grounded you'd feel right now. You wouldn't care at all about what people are saying."
Tell me again, what is so fantastic about the major world power that is broke?
They have maxed out their credit card...they really are broke!
If the USA do not continue to approve of more debt they cannot pay their bills.
The writing is on the wall, countries are hoarding gold they are hoarding gold because they fear for the future and so should you.
It's easy to forget the lessons of history, it's easy to say, she'll be right mate but the fact is the US is printing money, Japan is following suit and we also have wispers of our own RBA trembling in their boots saying BS like the AUD is over-valued
There's people that say gold is in a bubble, I say BS; The American dollar is in a bubble (ready to explode) and their currency has big problems.
Which country wants to see the dollar collapse? No- one because for many years "The Dollar" has been the world currency and there's huge investments in USD, but do you see countries turning away and looking after their own arse?
I do!
Keep stacking guys.
They have maxed out their credit card...they really are broke!
If the USA do not continue to approve of more debt they cannot pay their bills.
The writing is on the wall, countries are hoarding gold they are hoarding gold because they fear for the future and so should you.
It's easy to forget the lessons of history, it's easy to say, she'll be right mate but the fact is the US is printing money, Japan is following suit and we also have wispers of our own RBA trembling in their boots saying BS like the AUD is over-valued
There's people that say gold is in a bubble, I say BS; The American dollar is in a bubble (ready to explode) and their currency has big problems.
Which country wants to see the dollar collapse? No- one because for many years "The Dollar" has been the world currency and there's huge investments in USD, but do you see countries turning away and looking after their own arse?
I do!
Keep stacking guys.
April 4th and 5th are the next Chinese holidays and a time the anti Gold...anti Bullion scumbags will give us the opportunity to buy at further reduced prices by smashing the virtual paper pm markets.
By predicting a pro dollar move we can prepare to buy.
2013 is just starting to brew up the perfect storm
Best Buying Regards
By predicting a pro dollar move we can prepare to buy.
2013 is just starting to brew up the perfect storm
Best Buying Regards
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Their paper stack seriously dropped over the past months though, from 58000 to 31000.menotcrimex said:
Without papersilver to dump, they can't push down the price more.
In october 2012 they held the price up instead. Because then they didnt want silver going cheaper.
Despite the then seemingly 'holding' price level, alot others sold, and those others are now using the ammo to hold up the price at todays level.
It's funny how the impression I had then, is confirmed by what is happening now.
And it's also a trend breaker, because since may 2011, the paperstack went up and down with the price in a proportional fashion. Until some months (october) ago, where the proportional element got lost, and even the directional element got lost several times during this recent period.
This is also the reason that I decided to buy silver when spot was $29, instead of waiting for lower alike I did last year. So far $28 has been hit, but short. The coming weeks/months will make clear how much ammo those that sold since october had.
It's the same story as juli/august last year. Prepare to buy, prepare to buy, but alot were still preparing to buy, when the paperside drove up the price from $27 to $35. And some of those 'alot', bought there instead.
I stopped preparing. 5100 euro dumped, 6.2 kilo silver acquired.
It's also a longterm phenomenom typical for silver, at some point the crowd gets 'educated', and the pile ammo sitting ready to buy back in, became so big that it lifts the bottom price to a higher level.
But it's also important to realiae this: in the period 2008-now, people bought 3 times bigger amounts silver than before. Even at a same price, every year makes the monetary stock silver out there, bigger. That stock is a price suppressor for the future. The gradual selling of it, will suppress future price uptrends. And this will remain true until silvers production cost increases (aka general inflation catching up with silvers price rise).
Keep this in mind when the paper club rushes back in and the price is driven again up $5.
A succesful inflation hedge only comes with doing the opposite of them. Those 'anti Bullion scumbags' just dump the silver they previously bought. They are not anti silver or so, they like silver very much. Though not as a hedge against inflation, but as an open door to our ammo for free. If you were a silver seller, wouldnt you be happy to drive the price up, with your customers all buying at that driven up price?
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
That historical basis was the sale of the big government stocks. Post 2008 new private stocks started to replace them. So the historical base is reforming itself, and the higher price level is the consequence. Put these two trends together, and you see neutrality, in other words, a normal situation.Ernster said:
Of course, it also means that the silver price can now hang around $30 for a decade or more. That will depend on whether the producing part of the population will be able to do the same it did between 1980 and 2008. Finding the answer on that, is our act of speculation.
Some good points there people, good stuff.
Those guys out to extend the dollars dying life are shrewd....if Gold goes up too much
Then people loose confidence in the dollar and government
More people invest / educate themselves in bullion and the dollar dies faster.
They are going to use clever moves....they have a plan
Give yourself their perspective and power....what would you do?
That's the path for now.....things are not going to follow logical patterns.
The Perfect Storm 2013 does not care for charts or logic ..
Of course there will be a reversal and those of you with physical Gold and Silver will prosper......and it will come at a time when Bullion has been made to look hopeless to the masses.
Those guys out to extend the dollars dying life are shrewd....if Gold goes up too much
Then people loose confidence in the dollar and government
More people invest / educate themselves in bullion and the dollar dies faster.
They are going to use clever moves....they have a plan
Give yourself their perspective and power....what would you do?
That's the path for now.....things are not going to follow logical patterns.
The Perfect Storm 2013 does not care for charts or logic ..
Of course there will be a reversal and those of you with physical Gold and Silver will prosper......and it will come at a time when Bullion has been made to look hopeless to the masses.
G
Guest
Guest
Ernster said:
I wonder how far back he's talking about when he says its high on a historical basis.
You don't ever want to get caught up with the crowd. The crowd will get it wrong over and over, so you definitely want to think for yourself.
Silver is just one of many, many investments out there. Always keep an eye out for other things that look like they are too cheap.
In saying all that, I'm very encouraged, and quite surprised to see some of the commentators that have given up on silver. The currency wars haven't ended as far as I can tell, nor are they likely to any time soon. The world banking system is still in strife. Gold is the only real alternative. Central Banks are still buying gold. Silver follows gold.
For those reasons I'm sticking with it.
Silver is just one of many, many investments out there. Always keep an eye out for other things that look like they are too cheap.
In saying all that, I'm very encouraged, and quite surprised to see some of the commentators that have given up on silver. The currency wars haven't ended as far as I can tell, nor are they likely to any time soon. The world banking system is still in strife. Gold is the only real alternative. Central Banks are still buying gold. Silver follows gold.
For those reasons I'm sticking with it.
Pirocco said:
Oh yes it was, you were just looking in the wrong places, or seeing what you wanted to see. You can repost this claim this as many times as you like, but it still isn't true.
Just take a short stroll through the SS posts around that time:
http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-8114-speculation-in-silver-leads-to-note-of-caution.html: 15/04/11 @$42.50 and rising:
http://forums.silverstackers.com/to...ble-and-we-should-bail-if-it-drops-to-35.html: 20/04/11 (a few days before the high) @$46.50
But if you listened to the permabulls:
http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-9170-price-rewind.html 06/05/11, 10 days after the high, and falling through $35.50:
"If i had like solid bars, or 100's of the same coin left i would be kind of annoyed if i hadnt sold it .... only thing really annoying now is probably should have taken profit on couple ounces of gold."
"Without any analysis other than feelings, when silver hits about 25 and gold hits 1000 I'm selling everything not nailed down"
"Newbie question: do you guys think there is a chance we might hit 200 DMA?
Maybe ... that would take it down to approx USD28." (edit: <----- NOTE! This is the SS member you want to listen to!..... HE WAS RIGHT!!!
"With today's sell-off in the silver price, it has entered into "bear market" territory defined traditionally as a decline of at least 20%."
"And you think silver is going to rocket to $100+/oz? I seriously doubt that."
I could go on all night, but I wont.
What is interesting when reading the posts around this period is that the reasoning is still the same as it is today:
Silver always rises because it is finally discovering it's intrinsic value, and always falls due to manipulation, even though it is the same players in the same paper market
wrcmad said:What is interesting when reading the posts around this period is that the reasoning is still the same as it is today:
Silver always rises because it is finally discovering it's intrinsic value, and always falls due to manipulation.
LOL true.
Look I'm just trying to improve understanding of this whole silver market and I'm yet to get a satisfactory answer.
It was easy for the silver gurus to be correct when silver was going up
But none of those same people can tell us why it hasn't gone up on 2 years despite all the money printing.
I heard the same arguments over and over usually regurgitated from other people.
That's my problem.
I want to know WHY money printing isnt working anymore and why people still believe more of the same will make the price continue to rise.
Silver investors just presume silver will keep rising and ignore the fact that the huge money printing in the last 2 years isn't doing anything for the silver price.
Forget manipulation or looking at charts from the 70's, I'm taking about 2013.
: } ....commodities. Why rule out 2013 manipulation?
Not all of us believe everything is black and white.
Markets have always been manipulated....just not often so desperatly obvious
Not all of us believe everything is black and white.
Markets have always been manipulated....just not often so desperatly obvious
A good rule is don't risk what you can't afford to lose. If you're worried about the volatility, you might want to diversify to reduce your exposure to volatility and find non-correlated assets to lower beta.
It's always hard to be bullish when the crowd is negative on an asset. You need to have an iron stomach to handle the stress and be smart enough to know a smart move when you see one. Personally I think shorting facebook would be a smart move, but I don't have the guts to do it, so I'm sitting that opportunity out. But I do think going long silver bullion is a smart move and I do have the guts to do it.
Also, there are some solid fundamental forecasting for $35 silver this year and 40$ the year after. Long term projections by analysts are forecasting a bigger surplus of silver after that for a few years that will likely bring the long term price back down for a bit. Then after 2017 the forecasts show a drop from peak production worldwide, which will likely mean supply will be unable to meet demand long term, unless some new unexpected sources are found by then.
It's always hard to be bullish when the crowd is negative on an asset. You need to have an iron stomach to handle the stress and be smart enough to know a smart move when you see one. Personally I think shorting facebook would be a smart move, but I don't have the guts to do it, so I'm sitting that opportunity out. But I do think going long silver bullion is a smart move and I do have the guts to do it.
Also, there are some solid fundamental forecasting for $35 silver this year and 40$ the year after. Long term projections by analysts are forecasting a bigger surplus of silver after that for a few years that will likely bring the long term price back down for a bit. Then after 2017 the forecasts show a drop from peak production worldwide, which will likely mean supply will be unable to meet demand long term, unless some new unexpected sources are found by then.