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The Rawdog is Getting Out of Silver!
- Thread starter Ernster
- Start date
Bullion Baron said:
Going off the top of my head:
- Silver is not money anymore
- These days, the public are too dumb to invest in metals
- The general public has no money to invest
- Silver hasnt done much/gone to the moon during QE 3-4
- Goes on about gurus being incorrect with price predictions (David morgan)
- Says the market is deflating and silver will go down with it
mmm....shiney! said:@sc, demand has steadily been rising this past decade, and it has been met each year, precisely by supply. More precisely, the demand for coins and medals has been increasing, industrial demand is down, so is photographic use, as is jewellery and silverware and implied net investment has seen an explosive growth these recent years, but it varies from year to year. There have been no shortages (apart from minting shortages), in fact, it is foreseeable that there will be no silver shortages for quite some time, those waiting for the silver price to rise due to a shortage of the precious metal will have to look elsewhere.
Next point: Rawdog said that we won't experience hyperinflation because people do not have any money, people are losing their jobs, any money they have is spent on paying off debt or meeting the basic needs of survival. There is not enough excess cash to force hyperinflation.
Bordsilver will have a go at this surely?
Reserves of above ground silver have shrunk year on year, and it is interesting to note that production meets demand exactly according to the silver institute. The fundamentals are still there, and it is investment that is driving the recent rise in silvers value, It was only a decade ago this month that Gold could be had for $278 an oz and it is investment demand or hedging if you like that drove the price of gold to what it is now, not lack of supply or industrial demand.
Source:
I found this to be a well researched and convincing read that touches on a lot of different factors not covered elsewhere, Ore grades being one of the many along with rising prices of recovery that will place a floor under the silver price. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37608.html
How about you justify a little of Rawdogs thesis Shiney
As for inflation , it is already happening with real inflation running at around 10% in the states, maybe that's why no-one has any money. Hyperinflation is nearly always preceded by deflation.
Bullion Baron said:In all honesty it sounds like there is no logic to his argument. He's just another deflated PM bull with no patience to ride out the quiet periods... IMO he is getting out right at the bottom from where we are going to see an explosive run higher over the next year or two. His loss
Yeah I think you're right. He is a very emotional guy LOL among other things. One minute he is all excited about silver and "hard assets" and then another few months later he is ultra bearish.
Most of his points are correct to some degree but like you said don't really make sense at this point in time nor make sense as arguments for selling out.
Nothing has really changed. We are definitely at /close to a bottom around this point, its unlikely will go a whole lot lower aside from some major event.
One things for sure IMO, I think it's going to be an interesting next 12 months. I don't see the POS staying quiet after the long consolidation we have already had.
But then again....Silver can do anything
southerncross said:How about you justify a little of Rawdogs thesis Shiney
Oi!! i laid the challenge down first sc, don't you come back at me with a rechallenge.
Ernster's cliff notes are pretty spot on, with the exception of not mentioning the demand thing. I can't get my head around the Silver Institutes supply and demand table perfectly balancing each year. It must be to do with futures contracts and warehouse stores in Comex etc but they are alien to me. I'm repeating myself but industrial demand, jewellery demand, photographic demand and that other implied net investment demand are down (but mostly up), just coins and medals skyrocketed. The demand comes from crazies.
And as far as total above ground silver reserves declining, if they were it hasn't made any difference because all demand has been met by available supply, and last year it probably was too, and this year it probably will, and next year too. in fact, it probably will for the next 20 - 30 years!! http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/taylorm042411.html Unfortunately I couldn't find anything about his "Speculation Incorporated" article to confirm if he is a nutcase or not.
My thoughts in Italics below:
Ernster said:
fiatphoney
New Member
mmm....shiney! said:
Who is mmm....shiney! ?
Sauce: mint
It is really much simpler than attempting to rationalize his response even if some of them hold merit.
The answer is simple. He is angry because of greed.
He "got into metals" because of greed.
He was going to make all of this money when it went parabolic.
He preached to all the fools that didnt get it, all of those sheeple who did ot understand there fiat was paper/worthless.
When the big payout did not happen..He is disillusioned, and he turns on his God (metals).
NOW any believers in his God (metals) are now the idiots.
Before non-believers were idiots, now believers are idiots.
All because of get rich quick greed from a guy who really never understood what he was doing but always knew what the goal was..MAKE BIG MONEY!
There are MANY like him.
The answer is simple. He is angry because of greed.
He "got into metals" because of greed.
He was going to make all of this money when it went parabolic.
He preached to all the fools that didnt get it, all of those sheeple who did ot understand there fiat was paper/worthless.
When the big payout did not happen..He is disillusioned, and he turns on his God (metals).
NOW any believers in his God (metals) are now the idiots.
Before non-believers were idiots, now believers are idiots.
All because of get rich quick greed from a guy who really never understood what he was doing but always knew what the goal was..MAKE BIG MONEY!
There are MANY like him.
mmm....shiney! said:southerncross said:How about you justify a little of Rawdogs thesis Shiney
Oi!! i laid the challenge down first sc, don't you come back at me with a rechallenge.
Source:http://chickenonaraft.com/
Yeah and the crazies a decade ago were stacking gold, look where it got them.I'm repeating myself but industrial demand, jewellery demand, photographic demand and that other implied net investment demand are down (but mostly up), just coins and medals skyrocketed. The demand comes from crazies.
You mustn't of read the info on the link I posted above, the price has risen despite supply meeting demand, ( Can't find an explanation for the neatness of the figures provided from silver institute though ?).
I'm still convinced by the fundamentals of silver and another mostly overlooked quirk of human nature, that being that we as a species find value in things and choose to see them as an asset when purchased with our labour. It may be a passing trend or something that has endured for millenia but it is just something that we do, Diamonds, Gold, Silver, Art, Real Estate, Motor Cars, Base Ball cards, Micheal Jackson gloves etc etc. The thing is that a critical mass is achieved and something is seen and believed to have value not only to those who posses it but also by those who do not. Things also go out of favour, Real estate for example is currently losing ground, Daffodills are a good example, .Com bubble, and dare I say maybe soon U.S currency, Gov't Bonds, etc etc .
Silvers peak is yet to be seen, the sales of Coins and Bars for investment/hedging purposes is growing all the time and as evidenced 'investment' is what is driving the rise in silvers price, top that off with industrial demand along with the close link to the Gold price and it really is just a matter of time. The value may wax and wane but you only have to look at a five year chart to see where things are going, it was less than $10.00 back in 09 and is still $15.00 less than the recent high a year and a half ago, do you really think it wont go back to that high or higher again ?
P:S
Bullshit , it is the very reason mints worldwide sell silver coins for well over their face value each and every day based on the weight of the silver in them, got a whole stack of them I could exchange as legal tender or sell for the silver content tomorrow.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
According to
http://www.brotherjohnf.com/forum/Thread-RawDog-Likes-Silver-Again-Silver-to-the-moon-LOL
On 25 august 2012, when spot price was $30.82 after a +$4 in less than 2 weeks.
IF (important!) this statement about that RawDog is true, then, at least to me, that RawDog appears to me as attempting to widen price fluctuations, so when he buys back in, the yells to the moon, and vice versa, AFTER he dumped, and is again looking to buy back in cheapo, he turns 'bearish'.
In this IF case, my view is that he's just another silver pump and dumper.
I've seen quite some of those, and judged afterwards, doing the opposite of what they suggest, had been the best choice.
Keep in mind the IF. Because obviously, this guy has friends and enemies, so without verifying a claim, it's far from sure.
http://www.brotherjohnf.com/forum/Thread-RawDog-Likes-Silver-Again-Silver-to-the-moon-LOL
On 25 august 2012, when spot price was $30.82 after a +$4 in less than 2 weeks.
IF (important!) this statement about that RawDog is true, then, at least to me, that RawDog appears to me as attempting to widen price fluctuations, so when he buys back in, the yells to the moon, and vice versa, AFTER he dumped, and is again looking to buy back in cheapo, he turns 'bearish'.
In this IF case, my view is that he's just another silver pump and dumper.
I've seen quite some of those, and judged afterwards, doing the opposite of what they suggest, had been the best choice.
Keep in mind the IF. Because obviously, this guy has friends and enemies, so without verifying a claim, it's far from sure.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
About that silver isn't money statement... well... who decides what money is? People on the market.
Some of those people on the market, buy silver for the monetary role 'storage of value'. This very act on itself, is a declaration of the product silver as money. Regardless whether some others like this or not. And I'm sure some others do NOT like it. But hell, I'm using silver in order to avoid their theft, so it would bother me if they DID like silver haha.
Some of those people on the market, buy silver for the monetary role 'storage of value'. This very act on itself, is a declaration of the product silver as money. Regardless whether some others like this or not. And I'm sure some others do NOT like it. But hell, I'm using silver in order to avoid their theft, so it would bother me if they DID like silver haha.
Auspm
New Member
Pirocco said:
People in the market haven't decided silver is money for hundreds of years, maybe even a thousand years. The decision on whether silver is money and it's value if so, has been made by government decree.
southerncross said:
I do think it will go higher, I think if we get close to $50 again and then there'll be a huge amount of selling, in fact as we climb from about say $38 and above, I believe there will be a lot of silver dumped on the way. Whether this impacts on the demand is yet to be seen, if it does, then silver's days as a store of value are gone possibly for good. As far as triple figures, I see no valid economic reason why it should reach that, only references to the past. There is no valid reason why silver should share gold's podium, in the same way as platinum doesn't as well.
Silver, daffodils, diamonds, pearls, incense and myrrh. Pretty to look at least, and some even smell nice.
If I was going to buy silver, it would be to trade, so I may as well buy contracts, but I don't know enough about paper trading. That's where the money can be made, doing that you can buy and sell silver the industry needs and the crazies want. A foot in both camps.
mmm....shiney! said:
Thousands of years ??? Please get your facts straight! Recent history...
The US coinage Act of 1792 established a definition of a dollar. A dollar was defined as a coin containing 371.25 grains of pure silver and 416 total grains of metal (silver and alloy). The purity ratio was 1445:1664. Thus, a dollar was not a unit of value, but a unit of weight based upon a precious metal commodity. The dollar in the 1800's was then re-defined in gold - 1/20th of a troy oz.
Since 1913 we no longer have dollars but federal reserve notes. The current note since 1971 is a measure of debt not silver or gold.
This has not been over thousands of years....
Ronnie 666 said:
Ha ha ha ha ronnie, sell some silver and buy some glasses. This is what I wrote:
Now a quick look at the gold/silver ratio and one question, and we see mention of an "official" (now that implies legislated to me) ratio in 561 - 546 BC, I'll highlight it for you seeing as you have poor eyesight
And "recent history" goes back further than the US has existed. In other words, at no point in time have the people in the market set the true value of silver for the entire duration of the greatest democracy and free market system on Earth. Now there's an eye-opener, but only for those who wish to see.
mmm....shiney! said:Ronnie 666 said:
Ha ha ha ha ronnie, sell some silver and buy some glasses. This is what I wrote:
Now a quick look at the gold/silver ratio and one question, and we see mention of an "official" (now that implies legislated to me) ratio in 561 - 546 BC, I'll highlight it for you seeing as you have poor eyesight
And "recent history" goes back further than the US has existed. In other words, at no point in time have the people in the market set the true value of silver for the entire duration of the greatest democracy and free market system on Earth. Now there's an eye-opener, but only for those who wish to see.
I may need glasses but at least I can add- 1792 was not a thousand years ago, nor was 1873 a thousand years ago. Not by standard mathematics but by your warped calculation anything is possible ? Don't ask me what 1873 was I am sure everyone on this site knows.
You were discussing PM as money were you not .....a thousand years ago ??? Pull the other one.
Henry Wartooth
New Member
I feel like I just got stupider for reading that.
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