southerncross said:
As for the last comment I think you are wrong, Just as a small example do you really think it is the big players that have been buying all the latest ASE's ? Is it just the big players alone who have bought up all the mint releases worldwide over the last five years ? Is it the big players alone who have driven the rise in silver 97% since 2006 ? Sure the big players can move and influence the price but it is the ever increasing smaller investor that drives the market. I think you neglect the fact that the market is us, the small player and that the bigger players need someone to prey upon. Just as in nature though the predator needs to feed and if they over exploit the food source they will starve and die, a stacker stacks and that is akin to starving the predator the same way that compounding interest works.
A stacker does not use leverage, they own the physical whereas the big players survive on leverage alone. A stacker is also not exposed to the third party counter risk of the leveraged big player, they may only own a small portion but they actually own it, can take it out and play with it, hold it and not worry about covering shorts, exposure to derivatives, FX, geopolitical events, stock market crashes, being sold out, devaluation of a certain currency, nor any of the headaches associated with the current events in the world. A stacker can look at their stack one night and it will still be the same stack a whole week later despite whatever happens in the world.
WE DO all together make the silver price, we purchase and stack, sell and buy. But we hold PHYSICAL, not paper or wish's or promises, we actually hold the real thing, not a piece of paper or a contract to sell or buy in keyboard land in a make believe leveraged market. Even the people who play in the big world admit that the paper representing it is a pretend thing. Sure we can not at the moment compete against the big players but that is due to a highly organised and leveraged market based upon smoke and mirrors.
The smoke and mirrors will only go so far and last so long before the image is shattered. Then what ? The charade may continue for a while yet but we all know it is doomed, even those in temporary control know it is doomed. The old saying of follow the money tells us what we need to know and what are they doing ? Not stacking paper that is for sure.
Look at ASE sales. The same sales before and after the price drop.
Look at ETF stocks. The same tonnes before and after the price drop.
Look at the Comex silver futures markets net total position. Dropped from 57840 on 02/10/2012 price $34.61 to 4093 on 25/06/2013 price $18.925. A future demand of 289,2 Moz (27% of a worlds annual supply) that was reduced to just 20,465 Moz (2% of a worlds annual supply, and less than a year ASE production).
It's clear that the Comex silver players/hedgers were the main price driver.
But of course, others also have their part in it. That's what a market is: a combination of ALL that are active in it.
Now let's use the elimination method.
It wasn't the Comex that sold away the first $3 of the $35 > $19 price trend.
It wasn't the Comex that sold away the $5 of the $27 > $22 price trend.
It also wasn't the physically backed Exchange Traded Funds (like IShares Silver Trust).
So who/what remains then? What: heavy bars in private / unpublished ownership.
Likely also 1000 ouncers like the Comex/ETF's hold in their vaults.
Who? You tell me.
But one thing is sure, it had to be "physical" silver that was there at that time. No futures agreement. No promise.
So "physical" silver holders SOLD. But some seem to permanently ignore this, and instead come up with those "physical versus paper" stories.
Reality is that a large part of so-called "stackers" (not only coins, also 1000 ouncers) ALSO buy/sell in cycles.
Just read the forums here and there 'between the lines', posts scattered inside threads of various subjects / afterwards. Sentences that go like "I sold 80 kilo at $34".
And then, that RawDog enters the picture, publicly stating what he does and what he thinks about other silver 'investors', on the very same moment he acts (buys/sells).
Guess what: some don't like it. Isn't the reason obvious?
It's not RawDogs sale or purchase that they don't like. It's that he is saying it publicly on the very same moment of his act, that they don't like.
For the same reason as a deer hunter that is aiming at the deer, to then see it being shot by another deer hunter.
You say that you think that
I am wrong. But I use silver market data, so it comes down like saying that
the market is wrong. But hey! sometimes I consider the market wrong too.
But I try to live with it / adapt stacking strategies to it, instead of blaming big players / paper / leverage etc. The price trend origins in the NET result of what ALL do on the silver market, and reality is that alot only buy silver when they think others will be willing to pay higher prices thus receiving less silver. To then dump it ASAP.
Compare the speed of the green with the speed of the red.
Says the same without words.
