Wow, water war, it will really be too far into the future. I don't know if we will get to that stage. The consumption in China is currently driven by single child millennials supported by their parents and 2 sets of grandparents. This kind of consumption won't last more than 15-20 years because their parents will grow old and soon retire and themselves will have problems supporting themselves and don't even mention the grandparents in their 80s.
In order for parents to be able to support their adult kids, they need to profit from the properties they invested in, from rentals and flips, but the high property prices in turn makes it very difficult for the kids to have families and have many kids. It becomes a vicious cycle that cannot sustain for more than 2 generations, unless you start importing new people.
I know this very well because Singapore is experiencing this to a greater degree, the government is only managing this demographic issue by importing nearly 100% of the population in the last 30 years. Importing people works for tiny countries with population of only couple million people. It may even work for "small" countries like Australia or Canada with 20-30 million people.
China is becoming the West: less children, but higher consumption. The link between demography and economy is similar.
Less people will have to "take care" of more people. And that's unsustainable.
The real estate "boom" is also unsustainable: more and more real estate developments are appearing around the World.
Chinese cities, Dubai, Spain, Italy are already experiencing "emptiness".
There's simply too many houses and apartments compared with the population.
Still, buying an apartment today is almost impossible for younger generations due to the high price.
Prices are driven up by real estate speculators who just build, build, build and sell even what's "about to be built".
You can "buy" what's only planned to be built. But it doesn't exist yet. Still, it's usually unaffordable.
See the connection?
Less people (population decline), but more housing/properties and, higher costs per property.
Normally, the West, Australia, New Zealand, Japan (and prolly after a while even China) would end up with less people,
but far more properties. Empty houses, ghost towns.
Forced migration from 3rd World countries "fills" the "population gap", but creates a dreadful social-economic crisis.
Migration will make European countries unrecognizable. Just visit Frankfurt, Paris, Vienna, Barcelona and they're nothing
like they were 25 years ago.
Why doesn't anyone think about automation?
It works in IT, the car industry and Japan is the best examples. It helps reduce the workforce required and potentially even
increase productivity. But somehow AI is not used to increase.
Instead of struggling to keep up with production and consumption (World-wide craze, it's what almost all economies are
built around), we should reduce production, but increase the costs per unit. Exactly the other-way around.
Instead of producing cheaper flat TV's, which are only good for 2 years, the manufacturers should strive to make more durable
products that LAST for LONGER: e.g. 20 years.
Instead of 1,000 USD, a lating laptop could cost 5,000 USD, but could function for a lot longer.
What's going on in the IT World is pure marketing, baiting.
It's like commercial music or...
iPhone!
Sounds familiar? Useless products that keep you drooling after them.
I'm sick of changing laptops every 3-4 years, cellphones every 2 years, powerbanks every 2 years, printers every 1-2 years, TV's every 5 years...
It's not just the money, but the time wasted to buy the new one, finding a good way to get rid
of the old one (at a minimal loss) and learn how to use the new one.
The wild consumption-driven global economy should swap the economic model before it's too late.
China is the "engine" and it's breaking down... We're the passengers and I'm afraid we won't be able to fix the engine it if breaks down.
They're all built on sand foundations...
