The global economic collapse still hasn't happened...

Well here's one. Rickards says that the price of gold will be revised upwards on 30 September when the SDR is in place, with the Yuan as a component. The theory is the USD is thereby toast and the house of cards teeters and falls.

It would fit in with the previous October results of course, but naming 30 September is not wise.
 
JulieW said:
Well here's one. Rickards says that the price of gold will be revised upwards on 30 September when the SDR is in place, with the Yuan as a component. The theory is the USD is thereby toast and the house of cards teeters and falls.

It would fit in with the previous October results of course, but naming 30 September is not wise.
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Have you got a link for that Julie?

I do like Rickards even though I take him with a grain of salt (as I do everyone) but this comment runs contrary to my own world view right now. I am of the opinion we're into a hard core "kick the can" mode for the next 3 months at least. If I'm wrong I want to understand why and get on top of it.
 
BuggedOut said:
JulieW said:
Well here's one. Rickards says that the price of gold will be revised upwards on 30 September when the SDR is in place, with the Yuan as a component. The theory is the USD is thereby toast and the house of cards teeters and falls.

It would fit in with the previous October results of course, but naming 30 September is not wise.
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Have you got a link for that Julie?

I do like Rickards even though I take him with a grain of salt (as I do everyone) but this comment runs contrary to my own world view right now. I am of the opinion we're into a hard core "kick the can" mode for the next 3 months at least. If I'm wrong I want to understand why and get on top of it.
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CPb_bDAWgAEt98G.jpg

Source: http://lonestarwhitehouse.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/jim-rickards-twitter-feed-sept-2016-is.html

On October 1st, I will do a blog article that looks at what Jim Rickards is forecasting compared to what we have just seen from the BIS Chief Economist (no global central bank is coming) to see if we can reconcile the apparent conflict. One thing is clear. Jim does not see anything significant happening this fall regarding a reset as so many have been predicting. So readers can evaluate that comment over the next 2-3 months in comparison to all those calling for a major event this fall.
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That looks like it was written in October 2015.

I'll keep an eye out for any more recent updates from Rickards. He was spot on (pun intended) about Brexit and the gold price reaction (he made a video the day before), so I do take notice when he makes a call on something like this.
 
BuggedOut said:
That looks like it was written in October 2015.

I'll keep an eye out for any more recent updates from Rickards. He was spot on (pun intended) about Brexit and the gold price reaction (he made a video the day before), so I do take notice when he makes a call on something like this.
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http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews...or-the-u-s-dollar-as-jim-rickards-is-warning/


So what is it that Rickards sees coming this time? Here's a little more from the ad:

" there is a new form of currency that's about to flood the world economy. It's not money for you. You'll never get to withdraw it from an ATM, even if you travel overseas.

"This new form of money is strictly created for the financial elite.

"We call it 'world money' because of what it could ultimately do and soon which is replace U.S. dollar reserves around the world.

"That's right this is as close to the end of 'king dollar' as we've ever come.

"Now, what does that mean exactly? After all, what do you care if the people in Asia, Europe or the Middle East suddenly decide the dollar no longer gets #1 status around the world? .

"Losing our #1 status means giving up a whole slew of benefits you never knew you had."

He goes through some things that he thinks will happen "when central banks empty their vaults to make room for 'world money'" he notes that it "could push world stock markets off a cliff," "gut your savings account," "hike up prices you pay for everything" and "send U.S. tax rates soaring as D.C. scrambles for another source of cash."

So that sounds pretty apocalyptic but then, more from Rickards:

"Is this the monetary apocalypse? Not exactly.

"In fact, it's not even the first time we've had a currency implosion like the one I'm warning you about now. It's happened three times just in the last century in 1914, 1939 and 1971.

"What I am telling you though is that you will want to take steps to get ready.

"In case you still doubt the accuracy of this September 30th date or what's about to replace the dollar I've even got some smoking-gun proof.

"It's an actual 42-page blueprint buried deep on the website of the world's most powerful financial institution. This document lays out exactly how "world money" works.

"Inside the document, it says

"If there were political willingness to do so, these ["world money"] securities could constitute an embryo of global currency."

Translation?

"The financial elites are saying this could be the "money" that replaces the dollar in central bank vaults the world over."

And the panic sets in:

"If you've got even a nickel in dollar-denominated wealth, you need to pay attention.

"Because, make no mistake, the day 'world money' fills that role the value of the dollars in your bank account will plunge in value, virtually overnight."

So what's he talking about? As best I can tell this is, once again, a hullabaloo about the fact that the IMF is going to change the makeup of its special drawing rights (SDR) calculation for reserve currencies on October 1.

The move is well-known and well-telegraphed, and it's really about China more than it is about the US dollar (unless, of course, you're reading between the lines and predicting that this is a first step in the IMF taking over global currencies which is a conspiracy theory line of thinking. Conspiracy theories are not necessarily wrong every time, but they rarely make for good investment strategies).
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Deutsche Bank ADMITS it is preparing for market crash as fears over bail out grow
GERMANY'S largest bank has ADMITTED it is in "financial repression mode" as it desperately scrambles to implement financial buffers to prevent collapse.

Central banks are using interest-rate cuts, asset purchases, and other monetary-policy measures to prop up the economy to keep it at a "status quo", the bank said.

But a market correction could be on the cards if an "external economic shock" hits, they said.

"The status quo could continue for several years yet if nothing 'breaks' in the system.

"There are ways of course for either avoiding breaks or at least patching them mitigating the impact of negative rates on banks is now in vogue with subsidised bank loans for on lending.

"The conclusion is that without an external economic shock it is hard to see policymakers being prepared to take dramatic, fiscal action to jumpstart the global economy and bounce it out of a financial repression.

Ironically the shock that is needed would require a collapse in risk assets for policymakers to then really panic and attempt dramatic fiscal stimulus."

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...-for-market-crash-as-fears-over-bail-out-grow
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SilverDJ said:
That's the thing with Rickards, he talks with great authority and experience, and how the system is going collapse etc, yet advises 10% gold as if that's going to save your bacon in a real financial collapse. His recommendation is almost not worthy of all his continued talk on the subject.
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Rickards is one of the most educated and logical guys when it comes to gold. He is a 'hope for the best, keep your eyes open, and prep a bit for the worst' type of dude who looks at markets logically. I think that 10% is a fine place to be. Dalio usually recommends 7.5% gold. Most other investment gurus recommend even less.

For me, the idea is to be somewhat prepared for the worst... but not betting everything on it. I find that too much pessimism is bad for not only my portfolio value... but also mental health and overall life enjoyment. It's just not healthy to spend every day fearing and expecting thunderstorms or monsoons. I would rather own a poncho and rain boots and a tent yet live a normal life... than spend nearly all of my money building a full-on ark in my backyard at the expense of everything else I enjoy.
If you start getting much higher than approx 10% on precious metals, you really begin to neuter your portfolio growth potential. That may be fine for some who already have wealth well beyond their needs and only need preservation, but the average person needs growth of their portfolio.

-In a financial downturn, the gold fraction will make a rough time less rough.

-In a serious crash (30,40,50+ percent in stocks and real estate), the gold will be a real winner. You can always increase your gold % once a bona fide bear market; it's not as if the gold spike occurs instantaneously with the same days the stocks go into a tail spin. There are many months to react and transfer to precious metals when you look at historical crashes (although some bullion dealers will be out of stock on some stuff).

-In a complete wipeout scenario (bank runs, stock markets shut down, currency collapse and/or withdrawals frozen), then the 10% gold gives you a sizable bit to get by with or to leave the area and start over with. This would be like Rickards "ICE-9" scenario in his book 'Road to Ruin,' but we all know that measures that extreme are pretty unlikely. Again, you need to live your life... can't constantly be fearing and planning for monsoons.
 
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Here is what Rickards said (approx the 38:10 mark) his personal portfolio is this 2018 year (10% gold, 30% cash, 10% bonds, 20% real estate, 30% public and private equities):


...the whole video is pretty good. He is a smart dude who can still make sense to the audience.
 
Clawhammer said:
The system began to collapse after the 1970's.

Its been hidden by guns AND butter money printing and technological advances. But in real terms wages and energy consumption per capita have been falling since then.

We're slowly sliding into an era of low growth & standards of living.

The upside will be the end of endemic obesity, a rebuilding of the family unit, and a big contraction of government interference in everyday life. People lived before commuter traffic jams, the Kardashians and Pokemon Go... we'll be OK. As Carl Sagan once said, "we're an adaptable species"

I see it as good thing.
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This is very interesting to me because 1970 was ONLY 48 years ago.
I know it seems like a very very long time (a lifetime to some) but in the big picture 50 years is sweetFA.
 
Clawhammer said:
All cool,
The argument made is that technology has made machines, electronics etc more efficient which has covered up falling energy consumption per capita. Its that per capita component which is key.

While total energy consumption is up... its being focused into a smaller and smaller number of businesses and individuals while the rest miss out.

(Edit to add; energy consumption is used by economists as a measure of the activity/productivity of an economy. i.e. stone age man consumed/expended very little energy, steam era victorian economy used a lot more... 70's with gas guzzling cars, planes & factories was the peak. It is also important to mention energy consumption measured/compared in kilowatts/calories/BTU's not in $ spent on energy as it was cheap energy back in the 70's.)

With regards to falling real wages. That can be seen in the increased working hours required to achieve the same (or a better) standard of living compared to the 70's.

Where once a tradesman could support a mortgage stay at home mum and a couple of kids (and a holiday away each year), now it takes 2 wages just to struggle to get by.

Hedonic adjustment is used to argue that new tehnology like video games, air conditioners & modern cars offset intangible increased life satisfaction like cheap beer, affordable housing, healthy lifestyles and good marriage and crime statistics.
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Also very interesting.
Are many of you aware that at the bottom of the South Island here in NZ we have an aluminium smelter (Tiwai point) and that one factory uses around 18% OF ALL ELECTRICITY produced for the entire country.
I have got what i thought was a decent deal for home power at $0.19c per Kwh yet these guys have managed to get a deal for around $0.06c per Kwh.
 
Two bits from September 2018:

Ray Dalio sees dollar crisis about two years away:


...
"We have no ability to turn the economy around," said Martin Feldstein, President of the US National Bureau of Economic Research.

"When the next recession comes, it is going to be deeper and last longer than in the past. We don't have any strategy to deal with it," he told The Daily Telegraph.

Professor Feldstein, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, described a bleak scenario more akin to the depressions of the 1870s or the 1930s than anything experienced in the post-War era.

He warned that a decade of super-low interest rates and monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve has pushed Wall Street equities to nose-bleed levels that no longer bear any relation to historic fundamentals. Stock prices will inevitably come plummeting back down to earth.

Prof Feldstein said the next bear market - most likely triggered by a spike in 10-year Treasury yields - risks setting off a US$10 trillion (NZ$15 trillion) crash in US household assets. The cascading 'wealth effects' will drain the retail economy of US$300bn to US$400bn a year, causing recessionary forces to mestasasize.

"Fiscal deficits are heading for US$1 trillion dollars and the debt ratio is already twice as high as a decade ago, so there is little room for fiscal expansion," he said, speaking earlier on the sidelines of the Ambrosetti forum on world affairs at Lake Como.

The eurozone faces an even worse fate when the global cycle turns since the European Central Bank has yet to build up safety buffers against a deflationary shock. The half-constructed edifice of monetary union almost guarantees than any response will be too little, too late.

"The Europeans don't have a fiscal back-up. They don't have anything. At least you have your own central bank and treasury in Britain, so you will be happier," he said.

"Mario Draghi is going to be very happy when he has left the ECB because it is not clear how they are going to get out of this when they still have zero rates. They can't play the trick of the cheap euro again," he said.
...
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More: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=12126427&

Feldstein is a Harvard professor and head of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
 
The only true sage are people who only make one prediction at a time. I don’t mean disappear from mainstream media, I mean from everything even small YouTube vids.

Pundits like Rickards make different forecast every week, one has to come true one day.
 
Ipv6Ready said:
The only true sage are people who only make one prediction at a time. I don’t mean disappear from mainstream media, I mean from everything even small YouTube vids.

Pundits like Rickards make different forecast every week, one has to come true one day.
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Brandon Smith appears to be a very deep thinker & appears to be all over the subjects he posts on. Please do your own due diligence anyhow, I'm sure you will sort the wheat from the chaff. _JLG.

p.s. And if you are referring to Morgan, he has been around for years & tends to waffle on without saying anything new. (other people's opinion, not mine), lol. _JLG.
 
EVG is a Sprott rotational stalwart, if memory serves. Be very careful with your interpretation. Though I haven't tuned in the media structure associated with this gent and his fellow cadres for some time, gold was always going up even when it wasn't and that would cost you dearly if you invested accordingly. Gold has not destroyed the Fed in its more than 100 years existence and it is a public entrepot of the world's reserve currency. It is very very unlikely to unseat it, even childish to push that barrow, as though we are in the 1980s. What is more likely is that new currency systems will evolve.
 
JulieW said:
Well here's one. Rickards says that the price of gold will be revised upwards on 30 September when the SDR is in place, with the Yuan as a component. The theory is the USD is thereby toast and the house of cards teeters and falls.

It would fit in with the previous October results of course, but naming 30 September is not wise.
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Yuan might as well be a component, but will gold be a component?
(SDR components: U.S. dollar 41.73%, Euro 30.93%, Renminbi (Chinese yuan) 10.92%, Japanese yen 8.33%, British pound 8.09%. - Wikipedia)

Gold price "revised" means what?

Pointing upwards or downwards?
 
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