The Big Everything Bubble - Where to now

Well there’s plenty of analysts who claim to have a “thorough understanding of how a modern monetary system works” as you call it, that disagree with your ‘opinion’

With respect to you, not knowing the details of what these analysts of which you refer to are arguing, in my experience the vast majority of those who disagree with the position I advocate are simply wrong. I don't have an "opinion" on how the modern monetary system operates, I have a justified belief based on evidence and a rational argument.

Essentially*:

1. a government can spend it's own money without facing financial constraint
2. it doesn't rely on taxes or debt to fund the spending
3. a government can always meet its obligations
4. inflation is the main constraint, not tax revenue or debt

* for a sovereign nation that issues its own free-floating currency

I guess time will tell :)

Unfortunately "time will tell" is not a compelling investment thesis for those on the wrong side of the outcome:

https://www.silverstackers.com/forums/index.php?threads/sydney-market-starting-to-crumble.70008/

In 2015 when the Sydney market began to "crumble" the median house price was just over $1 million. Ten years on it's $1.5 million. And we could go back further into the annals of SS history and find posts from back in 2010/2011 predicting the Australian RE crash - except many of those threads and members are no longer on this forum.

time has not been kind to those people.
 
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We are seeing the collapse of the fiat now.
Evenually no one will want the worthless paper dollars anymore but the government will still still need to pay its bills.
Also, once the people lose trust its over with.

Being modern doesn't mean anything.

I think it will be replaced before it ever collapses of course.
And 10 of your current dollars might buy a new dollar.

Id hate to not have metals when that happens.
 
I would not be putting any significant amount in to metal at the moment epically silver it will as it has always done crash back down hard and then do nothing for 10 years or more

Your saying "always" but basing that off of 50 years of manipulated fiat history.
Silver has thousands of years of history where it held just fine and never crashed back down.

Maybe some more etfs or bitcorn?
 
Your saying "always" but basing that off of 50 years of manipulated fiat history.
Silver has thousands of years of history where it held just fine and never crashed back down.

Maybe some more etfs or bitcorn?
you would be naive to think that any government would ever move away from a fiat currency again it just wont happen metals might be a hedge and a store of wealth / a backstop they are a poor investment they are not what they once were I realized that long ago and got out of silver/gold and started buying shares and dont regret it at all.
 
The government doesnt need to use metals, they can print currency. The last thing they want is an honest money that cant be printed at their whim.
Metals are for the peoples' protection and the reason its stacked and saved.
Yeah shares might be the way to go if you dont want the regrets of metals or some other investment.

Im surprised you arent already positioned before all this.
Most of us have been setting up for the last decade.
 
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Well, the crypto bubbles are all back in the green now, so the precious metals will be the same on Monday.

Dont like those $200 intraday moves in the price of gold anyway, it means popping two champagne bottles in a day instead of one.
 
We are seeing the collapse of the fiat now.

You'll have to provide evidence to back that claim.

The evidence to show that it's not collapsing is compelling: fiat is still in demand, it's still used to exchange goods, it's still being created by government and banks and demand for it is higher than it has ever been.

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Being modern doesn't mean anything.

Of course it does. It distinguishes the current system we have from all of the commodity based currencies that preceded it and constrained government spending policy.
 
You'll have to provide evidence to back that claim.

Fiat is in higher demand due to population doom (immigration) and easy credit.
Collapse of fiat in terms of value.
The evidence is everywhere, it’s up to you to choose to see it or not. I think you do but like to play the devil’s advocate. You clearly understand how government and central bank policies affect the economy, financial system and fiat system.
At some point Shiney you’ll have to stop spewing text book propaganda and think independently, maybe not, either way it’s entertaining to have you participate on the forum.
 
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Collapse of fiat in terms of value.
The evidence is everywhere, it’s up to you to choose to see it or not.

The fiat doomsday preachers conflate the evidence of declining "purchasing power" due to the inflationary nature of the money supply with a "collapse" of the fiat system. They're two different animals. The fiat system will only collapse if we see a collapse in our socio/political system. And that's not on the radar.

Even if it is a wet dream for some goldbugs. :p

I think you do but like to play the devil’s advocate.

Not at all. My comments are genuine.
 
The current dollar is only a derivative of real money but backed by nothing.
The world is moving away from dollars and the dollars share percentage has been dropping.

If you want evidence of it collapsing just drive around any big city and look at the tents. Ask the average citizen what their future prospects look like.
Its a slow collapse but it's down over 98%.

Eventually it won't be accepted anymore and we will have a new dollar with the new value.
 
The current dollar is only a derivative of real money but backed by nothing.

That's false. Fiat currencies are backed by the reputation and strength of the governments and nations that issue it. The more stable a nation's political and financial system and the stronger the economy is then the more demand for that nation's currency will exist.

The world is moving away from dollars and the dollars share percentage has been dropping.

That's a USD-centric view. The world is more than just the USA.

1. There have been shifts in demand for USD as the USA's share in global exports has declined awhile the rise of China as an export powerhouse has seen its fiat currency gain market share in global trade. Therefore, that can't be cited as evidence of the collapse of fiat.

2. Every metric with the exception of reserve assets shows an increase in the value of the USD as a proportion of the global economy. It's decline in reserve assets has been discussed at length elsewhere on this forum so I'm reluctant to rehash those ideas again suffice to say that in many occasions, the % decline in the use of USD has been matched by an increase in the use of other fiat currencies eg Euro, Looney. AUD etc. Again, this is not evidence that fiat is collapsing.

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If you want evidence of it collapsing just drive around any big city and look at the tents. Ask the average citizen what their future prospects look like.
Its a slow collapse but it's down over 98%.

Again, you're conflating declining economic conditions with fiat currency collapse, and further, you're arguing that the declining economic conditions is evidence of a collapse in the fiat system. Both positions are incorrect and lack substantive arguments in support of your position.


Eventually it won't be accepted anymore and we will have a new dollar with the new value.

That could possibly happen but it's highly unlikely.
 
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At some point Shiney you’ll have to stop spewing text book propaganda and think independently,

My position is hardly text book propaganda, very few institutions teach it as it's not orthodox and very few policy makers and media outlets adopt it.

Interestingly it's often goldbugs and PM enthusiasts such as yourself that unwittingly preach the orthodox text book theories of money and the economy. So it's laughable that you'd be the one suggesting I should think independently. o_O

Of course if you're prepared to specifically point out what some of the text book and non-indepenant views I'm promoting are then we'd likely stop simply going around in circles. But at this stage not a single detractor has challenged the basics that define my position as outlined in post #21, preferring instead to base their arguments on fallacies.
 
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All anyone needs n to do is go to the grocery store or pay rent. Pay for anything at all and you'll see it.
 
~"The current dollar is only a derivative of real money but backed by nothing."
~"Fiat currencies are backed by the reputation and strength of the governments and nations that issue it."

As far as I understand the world, The system we have with central banks holding a basket of each others currency in reserves is a global general demand factor, because they run a local system of currency, and they work together to define the rules for international trade, diplomatic stance, war, and guarantees for settlement of taxes to their citizens, so locally, its a promise that society has an agreement on a single reference unit, locally.

Their are so many factors, but local use and guarantee as unit of trade, choice for international investment diversity for store of value (you dont have to HOLD your own local currency, but you DO have to transact in it), combined with national competition and floating rates underpins de-monopoly, of the otherwise central issuance by that countries government and monetary instructions, who issue loans in the local currency too... so its YOUR promise on loans that also backs its value.

So long as international settlements in a nations issued currency exists, the $ £ ¥ of the countries will have value, consider this hypothetical:

$ for local wood source and refinement..
¥ used locally in the construction of graphite..
£ for rubber and paints.
... other currencies leveraged for local input for product, which after final assembly is distributed to a variety of other currencies also, where upon sale, those international trades are settled.
Extend this to sourcing > refinement > processing > construction > distribution spanning dozens of countries... then the interlink of international cooperation is required.
Currencies grant the political powers a target for trade policy effects that allows them to effectively govern the relationships and power balances.

I contrast this more complex interdependent viewpoint with the idea of central bank currency dominance... i.e: USD as the worlds currency idea...

American centric view of moneys value comes from USD being "top-dog"...
and is an equivalent local reference viewpoint of ANY individuals worship of their own particular country's currency...
But if you bring your local currency where its not guaranteed by the local gov for trade.
It has no "rights" for attribution of value.
Nobody outside of $ land has to accept $.
Nobody outside of £ land has to accept £.
Nobody outside of ¥ land has to accept ¥.

Their value is NOT only tied to the capability for a local country to tax, loan and issue for government expenditure.
But its relationship to all other countries with a 'like' model, for relationship management across the globe.

Gresham's law explains why concurrent currencies (pre-45, post-45 & decimal) cant coexist as legal tender on equal footing, in a single region of use.
Because the one with the highest quantities of the "store of value" components will be hoarded, and the least valuable ones transacted.
Therefore we have currencies.. because they are devaluing all the time and, strictly, are the worst...
We trade them because we want to get rid of them... and we trade FOR them, because doing so doesnt put as at a disadvantage of not being able to trade them back because their value is well known to be managed to specific levels of debasement/inflation, which is also why we go into debt in them...

Nobodys going to buy a house indebt to bitcoin for the sake of verification that its NOT paid back on an immutable blockchain, where the price to repay is MORE in the future than the past...
because the value of the house and car as a 3d object seems ok.. but as a 4d one (including the time for its utility) over time the house and car devalue and degrade, wears out, degrades, rotts....
so its actual 4d value aspect, is as a diminishing return asset for which your determining its value to you for shelter and transport, over time it becomes worth less, as does the money you are paying back for it. and both.. more subconsciously, but truly, are known...

What you would want to argue is that housing and stuff goes up... but you KNOW it doesnt... its the CURRENCY devaluing that give you that illusion. and its the greedy leverage of the promise to pay the loan back, that is where people find the value...
the exposure to the devaluation of the currency, in your favor, why: for a house... at the expense of maintaining a loan... why would governments be happy to do this for us?
So we are incentivized to WORK in their local environment.

the house and cars for which loans are common... and most planned redundancy economy items, are not 3d objects.. and its not priced as one.
inflation and interest are also relative time considerations, and thats tricky too because its part of the gov and banks control, where by it is evident that the rotting tree-house of global politics isn't really smart enough to maintain a great balance as we rapidly advance and try to sustain the planet.
 
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The government doesnt need to use metals, they can print currency. The last thing they want is an honest money that cant be printed at their whim.
Metals are for the peoples' protection and the reason its stacked and saved.
Yeah shares might be the way to go if you dont want the regrets of metals or some other investment.

Im surprised you arent already positioned before all this.
Most of us have been setting up for the last decade.
the last decade I was mostly paying off my PPOR which was my bigest priority and buying shares and some silver when I could ( a few years ago sold most of my silver, paid off my ppor and started buying more shares and some crypto)
 
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