Silver Spike...
- Thread starter SilverSale
- Start date
Believe what you want to believe - makes no difference to me.
You can take the worst-case Australian smallest deposits and argue the main - makes no difference to me.
You can compare Australian potential production to World production and pretend it's relevant - makes no difference to me.
You can ignore world total deposits - makes no difference to me.
You can ignore available world-wide deposit grades - makes no difference to me.
You can pretend 10 year lead-times - makes no difference to me.
You can imagine poked holes - makes no difference to me.
You can look at your investment returns in 10 years and weep at lost opportunity - makes no difference to me.
I agree to disagree.
You can take raw data based on today's price in isolation - makes no difference to me.
You can ignore economics and feasibility of future demand - makes no difference to me.
Over and out.
here we go.FYI - "In contrast to other industries, mining cannot freely choose where to operate: it can only take place in areas where minerals are concentrated on the surface or underground. This can mean operating in sensitive or challenging environments; a trend that looks set to continue as older, easier to reach deposits run out.
The extraction of metals involves a complex and lengthy series of steps, each of which requires investment of substantial expertise and money. The exploration and development phase from initial discovery to mine production may take up to 10 years, and in some cases even longer."
https://www.mining.com/web/mining-c...l-silver-sales-to-end-the-paper-manipulation/
You are most welcome to shove that in your pie hole... Goes to show that you have no idea what you're talking about.
I address the points in your arguments and offer my knowledge, views and analysis. I explain my view points and the reasons why I don't agree with your statements or claims.
You're dismissive for no reason and aren't willing to debate or discuss things in an objective manner, so what's the point? There are plenty of other brick walls I could be conversing with.
I like to have discussions and debates to hear alternative perspectives in hopes that ill learn something new, or at least understand different perspectives. From our previous discussion I learnt that Silver is lost in the refining process when targeting other metals. Meaning ore grades of 300g of silver to 1 gram of gold per metric tonne doesnt result in the equivelant production output.
of course, wrcmad didn't tell me that, but I learnt it as a result of our discussions through my own research.
Being a public forum, conversations and discussions can be useful to others, so it's not all for nothing. I just wish there was more substance to wrcmad's arguments so we could get more value from them.
Number 47
Well-Known Member
I see around 85% to 95% recoveries in primary ore (copper) depending on plant feed grades.
And of the very little gold and silver in our ore, less than 50% of available gold and silver is recoverable.
We just send the rest out to the tails dam.
To gain better recovery of gold and silver involves extra processes they aren't cost effective for the given return for our available metals.
Places like Olympic Dam are different, they have 5 sepperate processes that I know of, solvent extraction, flotation, electro wing cells and 2 furnace refineries. Theyd be getting great recovery of all copper, silver, gold and uranium.
Even simple things like altering the ph to deliver better secondary metal recovery dose little other than reduce the maximum grade of primary concentrate in our flotation plant.
And of the very little gold and silver in our ore, less than 50% of available gold and silver is recoverable.
We just send the rest out to the tails dam.
To gain better recovery of gold and silver involves extra processes they aren't cost effective for the given return for our available metals.
Places like Olympic Dam are different, they have 5 sepperate processes that I know of, solvent extraction, flotation, electro wing cells and 2 furnace refineries. Theyd be getting great recovery of all copper, silver, gold and uranium.
Even simple things like altering the ph to deliver better secondary metal recovery dose little other than reduce the maximum grade of primary concentrate in our flotation plant.
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Thanks for sharing that info. You made the following statement:
"To gain better recovery of gold and silver involves extra processes they aren't cost effective for the given return for our available metals."
I am curious to know if you have any insight to what prices would need to be for these additional recovery processes to become cost effective? And if these additional recovery processes were in place around the world, would it result in much larger volumes in global supply?
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Oh yeah baby, I'm a total noob.
Of course I have no idea what I'm talking about..... must be because I disagreed with you?
Shame, I like talking about the mining and feasibility aspect of metals.... after all it's my fkn profession.
Shame the discussion couldn't have been a bit more mature.
Oh yeah baby, I'm a total noob.
Of course I have no idea what I'm talking about..... must be because I disagreed with you?
Shame, I like talking about the mining and feasibility aspect of metals.... after all it's my fkn profession.
Shame the discussion couldn't have been a bit more mature.
And what exactly do you do?
Given that I disagreed with the views of 2 permabulls tonight, you could say I just troll precious metal forums all night as the "guy with no idea".
A lot of what you said was true, but if all of it was true it'd be reflected in price/demand..... and it just ain't there man.
Apologies to rain on your hopes and dreams, but what a boring forum it'd be if we all just stroked each others ego about being on the right side of "to-da-moon".
And to answer your question, I'm an Extractive Metallurgical Process Engineer.... and was also a Stockbroker in a previous life.
Between ignorant permabull and inquisitive agitator, there lies the silent majority.I logged out & guess what I found?
As I said "just an agitator"
_JOHNLGALT. sorting the $#!T from the CLAY.
p.s. @Fraser This one is for you. _JLG.
Now where has Fraser been? Haven't seen his posts for a while?
Maybe because none of his dreamy theories came to fruition? Is he one of your mates JG?
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Number 47
Well-Known Member
On top of basic flotation there's,
Solvent Extraction (SX) IS a common one
A "gravity circuit" is another.
treating the slimes separately.
Ph levels
Different reagents
Different grind size and much much more
You can liberate and float (target) one metal while suppressing another then recover the suppressed metal further down the circuit.
Google those things and you'll have a good insight into mineral processing.
There's just so many variables, it can get mind boggling,
It's definitely a topic for a metallurgist to chime into, I'm definitely no met.
Again, it's only worth the additional costs if there's enough recoverable "secondary" metals in the ore.
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Given that I disagreed with the views of 2 permabulls tonight, you could say I just troll precious metal forums all night as the "guy with no idea".
A lot of what you said was true, but if all of it was true it'd be reflected in price/demand..... and it just ain't there man.
Apologies to rain on your hopes and dreams, but what a boring forum it'd be if we all just stroked each others ego about being on the right side of "to-da-moon".
And to answer your question, I'm an Extractive Metallurgical Process Engineer.... and was also a Stockbroker in a previous life.
That's brilliant. Now let's discuss this further. If you could tell me what you do and dont agree with and why, and I'll do the same, then we could actually get somewhere.
"A lot of what you said was true, but if all of it was true it'd be reflected in price/demand...
And it just ain't there man".
What do you mean by demand isn't there? I agree with you if you're referring to investor demand, but industrial demand is absolutely there relative to global mine supply.
As for the price, you do understand that Silver derives its value from the Comex derivitive? That buying and selling contracts on the Comex will affect the spot price, right?
JOHNLGALT
Well-Known Member
"As for the price, you do understand that Silver derives its value from the Comex derivitive? That buying and selling contracts on the Comex will affect the spot price, right?".
Yes that is the problem, pricing REAL METALS with paper & digital contracts created out of nothing.
Comex (CRIMEX) is the method used to suppress commodities prices (as valued in FIAT). _JLG.
Yes that is the problem, pricing REAL METALS with paper & digital contracts created out of nothing.
Comex (CRIMEX) is the method used to suppress commodities prices (as valued in FIAT). _JLG.
I realised there were so many variables to that question when I began to research Olympic Dam. Thanks for the info you've provided. I'll look into it.
JOHNLGALT
Well-Known Member
In case you are not familiar with the history of Broken Hill, there is a wealth of stuff out there including Books, Participants, Investments, Samples taken to London for Analysis. (in the days when they had to be taken by ship to London).
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I have heard the theories for years that demand for silver is outstripping supply. But if that were the case, the price of silver would reflect that lack of supply. Instead, silver price remains stagnant - even going a long way backwards relative to other investment classes. IMHO, when you look at the data - some of which I have laid out in a couple of discussions with you, the claims of demand outstripping supply appear very shallow, and seem to selectively cherry-pick data to fall in line with the permabull narrative. If this were not the case, the damand/supply balance would be reflected in the silver price, and it hasn't been the case. This lack of price movement backs up my theory that there is way more silver available than the permabulls like to claim.
Simple.
Price is the ultimate indicator.
Typically, the response to this proposition by the permabull narrative uses the fall-back line that COMEX ("Crimex") is responsible for suppressing a price that should be much higher. These two theories go hand-in-hand, because without the notion of a physical shortage, the manipulation theory becomes a logical fallacy. One requires the other, and both are used to shore up the egos of investors who struggle to deal with the fact they may have made a sub-standard investment decision.
Well, I call BS. And nobody has shown real or definitive evidence to back up the claim of long-term silver price suppression.
Sure, there have been isolated instances of spoofing for a few points here and there, but long-term price suppression via COMEX is still an unproven theory. Moreover, the headlines have actually shown instances of price being manipulated upwards! - here is one example: https://www.silverstackers.com/foru...ark-price-fix-manipulation.71603/#post-886906
Over the last 7 years I have laid out clear explanations of how COMEX works, as has Bron, and there is no evidence to show the long-term price suppression of silver. And nobody has been able to show otherwise. All mere postulation at best.
Yes, buying and selling contracts on COMEX affects spot price - duh? It is supposed to - that is genuine market demand and supply. The markets wouldn't function without futures - as has been explained ad nauseam on this site many times before.
In a free market this would be true. But Silver's price does not derive from the free market, yet the free/physical market does influence the price. For example - production costs creating a major resistance or floor.
Ok? We mine silver. Other than scrap metal refining, where else do we get our annual silver supply?
The silver institute has data on mine supply and global demand:
https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/
In 2018, mine supply was 855.7Moz
Total demand in 2018 was 1033.5Moz
We are dependant on scrap metal refining to try and make up the shortfall, but even that's falling short most years. Look at the link I sent you. In 2011 the difference between mine supply and physical demand was over 340Moz!
Even though we are getting supply from scrap, we aren't producing enough from our mines to meet total demand. That's a big deal! because it has to come from reserves.
I'm actually off to bed. I'll be addressing your points on manipulation and price suppression another time. It's my son's birthday, so likely Friday.
I will leave you with this link to position limits on silver futures and other commodities.
https://investingnews.com/daily/res...ies-position-limits-and-comex-silver-futures/