Silver Spike...

Davros10 said:
I'm referring to the recent lows that match the $1450-1460 level in Gold.
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Yup, saw it. I think 66rounds also mentioned that he's not going to wait for lower gold prices when the price was around $1450?

Still no rush to buy gold or exchange fiat for gold in Singapore. Singapore Gold forum still dead. This means the gold bull has some more to go!
 
People tend to buy with the excitement near the top (FOMO) and sell in despair as the market is about to turn up.

VERY difficult to take the emotion out of buying and selling decisions.
 
Davros10 said:
People tend to buy with the excitement near the top (FOMO) and sell in despair as the market is about to turn up.

VERY difficult to take the emotion out of buying and selling decisions.
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From the look of it, all metals (except pd and rh) will be much higher in 3 years from today. When Fed started to cut rates, that should have been signal to convert all cash into gold. But I wasn't so sure until the repo started. The repo showed that the Fed will not stop printing.
 
sgbuyer said:
Yup, saw it. I think 66rounds also mentioned that he's not going to wait for lower gold prices when the price was around $1450?

Still no rush to buy gold or exchange fiat for gold in Singapore. Singapore Gold forum still dead. This means the gold bull has some more to go!
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Haha I prayed for much lower than 1450 but bought anyway. When you're only buying grams it doesn't really matter whether it's 1350 or 1450 or 1550 to be honest.
 
sgbuyer said:
Please share your thoughts as to why.
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I'm following an Elliott Wave pattern that started at the 2011 top. We are in a large (10+ year) ABC corrective pattern.

Wave A finished at the end of 2015 and Wave B is in it's final movements. After this I'm expecting Wave C to take prices down to US$10 or less (maybe $7.50)

To be more precise with Wave B, we are in the final 5 wave pattern (starting in November 2018) and again within that the final 5 wave pattern that started at $16.51. we are currently in wave 2 of this last move and building up some momentum for the next excellent buying opportunity in the next few days. When it turns, Wave 3 should rise about $3-5, followed by a corrective 4th and final rising 5th. Probably all done by mid year and low US $20's.

It's all a whole lot easier to see visually, but unfortunately I'm unable to show someone else's proprietary charts.
 
Davros10 said:
I'm following an Elliott Wave pattern that started at the 2011 top. We are in a large (10+ year) ABC corrective pattern.

Wave A finished at the end of 2015 and Wave B is in it's final movements. After this I'm expecting Wave C to take prices down to US$10 or less (maybe $7.50)

To be more precise with Wave B, we are in the final 5 wave pattern (starting in November 2018) and again within that the final 5 wave pattern that started at $16.51. we are currently in wave 2 of this last move and building up some momentum for the next excellent buying opportunity in the next few days. When it turns, Wave 3 should rise about $3-5, followed by a corrective 4th and final rising 5th. Probably all done by mid year and low US $20's.

It's all a whole lot easier to see visually, but unfortunately I'm unable to show someone else's proprietary charts.
Click to expand...

I must say you've spiked my interest with this post. I don't know anything about Elliott Waves ( at the moment ) , but I read your price predictions and thought really?

I must have looked at the graph below dozens, if not, a hundred plus times. I'm actually ashamed to say that I've never noticed the correlation between the 1980's pattern, and our current pattern. It's actually startling, now that I've noticed it.

Proprietary charts?. Your subscribing to a service or system?

Screenshot_20200115_182129_com.android.chrome.jpg
 
Davros10 said:
I'm following an Elliott Wave pattern that started at the 2011 top. We are in a large (10+ year) ABC corrective pattern.

Wave A finished at the end of 2015 and Wave B is in it's final movements. After this I'm expecting Wave C to take prices down to US$10 or less (maybe $7.50)

To be more precise with Wave B, we are in the final 5 wave pattern (starting in November 2018) and again within that the final 5 wave pattern that started at $16.51. we are currently in wave 2 of this last move and building up some momentum for the next excellent buying opportunity in the next few days. When it turns, Wave 3 should rise about $3-5, followed by a corrective 4th and final rising 5th. Probably all done by mid year and low US $20's.

It's all a whole lot easier to see visually, but unfortunately I'm unable to show someone else's proprietary charts.
Click to expand...

Important factors which go against your analysis are:

Global demand vs supply.
All in sustaining costs for miners

Global dependance on primary silver mines is increasing year over year. Because of this, Primary silver mines offer a key insight to what price levels can be sustained.

The consensus is that Primary miners need a minimum of $15USD to break even. For these reasons (and others), I believe it is very dangerous to hold the view that silver could get down to $7.50 or even $10 per Oz.
 
STKR said:
Important factors which go against your analysis are:

Global demand vs supply.
All in sustaining costs for miners

Global dependance on primary silver mines is increasing year over year. Because of this, Primary silver mines offer a key insight to what price levels can be sustained.

The consensus is that Primary miners need a minimum of $15USD to break even. For these reasons (and others), I believe it is very dangerous to hold the view that silver could get down to $7.50 or even $10 per Oz.
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again THE MAJORITY OF SILVER SUPPLIED TO THE MARKED IT NOT FROM PRIMARY SILVER MINES

the MAJORITY of silver is mined as a BYPRODUCYT -- that is INCONSEQUENTIAL to the VIABILITY OF THE MINE AS A WHOLE AND WILL BE MINED REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE SILVER PRICE IS
 
Court Jester said:
again THE MAJORITY OF SILVER SUPPLIED TO THE MARKED IT NOT FROM PRIMARY SILVER MINES

the MAJORITY of silver is mined as a BYPRODUCYT -- that is INCONSEQUENTIAL to the VIABILITY OF THE MINE AS A WHOLE AND WILL BE MINED REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE SILVER PRICE IS
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^This.
I don't know why some still believe in the "production-cost-floor fallacy".
Doesn't matter what your price of production is, if buyers don't see value, then they ain't buying.
Just ask Holden and Ford how the "price-of-production" theory worked out for them.....

Oh, and BTW, I still don't understand the "Global demand vs supply" theory either.
The data just doesn't support it IMHO.
 
Court Jester said:
again THE MAJORITY OF SILVER SUPPLIED TO THE MARKED IT NOT FROM PRIMARY SILVER MINES

the MAJORITY of silver is mined as a BYPRODUCYT -- that is INCONSEQUENTIAL to the VIABILITY OF THE MINE AS A WHOLE AND WILL BE MINED REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE SILVER PRICE IS
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I know Silver is mined as a byproduct metal. Only approx 30% is mined from Primary silver mines and even they process other metals. Sometime up to and over 50% of production output is other metals.

The reason I stated the Primary Silver mines and their All-In-Sustaining-Costs were of importance, is because we currently have year-on-year deficits between mining supply and global demand, alongside lower ore grades and higher production costs.
In a deficit environment, where demand is exceeding supply, the Primary Silver miners begin to play a crucial role in price discovery within the physical market. They're the ones sitting on all the major silver deposits and the most likely to increase global production by processing more ore.

If Silver goes to $10 - Say goodbye to a good portion of primary Silver mine supply, and hello to greater deficits. $10 is not sustainable, nor is $11,$12, or $13. This is the reason I believe that Silver's floor sits around the $14-$15 range and why prices such as $10 and $7.50 will not be something we see again. Not unless demand dries up and we begin to see surplus'...or a short amount of time of extreme volatility.
 
wrcmad said:
^This.
I don't know why some still believe in the "production-cost-floor fallacy".
Doesn't matter what your price of production is, if buyers don't see value, then they ain't buying.
Just ask Holden and Ford how the "price-of-production" theory worked out for them.....
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Why is it so challenging to understand that a commodity like silver, which is used in multiple industries and in thousands of applications, is a finite resource and one that our global economy relies upon, is different to the sale of an Automobile?
You've come up with this idea that industry demand for silver has a similar relationship to the retail consumer and retail supplier. That's obviously not the case. It's the electrical and thermal conductivity, reflectivity and antimicrobial, antibacterial and antifungal qualities that drive the demand in industry.

Primary Silver miners will not operate at a loss for an extended period of time, and because global demand is dependant on the 30% of global mine output generated by the primary silver mines, a "production cost floor" develops. Mines will shut down if they're not profitable, or significantly reduce production until a higher metal price is achieved. In a deficit environment, this moves markets.
 
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STKR said:
If Silver goes to $10 - Say goodbye to a good portion of primary Silver mine supply, and hello to greater deficits. $10 is not sustainable, nor is $11,$12, or $13. This is the reason I believe that Silver's floor sits around the $14-$15 range and why prices such as $10 and $7.50 will not be something we see again.
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I'm not sure that Silver has any interest in respecting your floor.
 
After 2 years of stacking, while fundamentals are important, I've come to understand that in the stacking game, one must learn how to ignore short to medium term price fluctuations. If you're concerned about price fluctuation, then keep some spare cash and be ready to average down if the price drops to $10.

Another point is to have a diversified metals portfolio, gold, silver and platinum with at least 2 times more gold than silver so in the event of a SHTF scenario, gold can help to balance any sharp drops in silver. If gold spikes or maintains, and silver drops to $10, you may even sell some gold to buy below cost of production $10 silver - assuming there are people selling the physical bars.

STKR said:
The consensus is that Primary miners need a minimum of $15USD to break even. For these reasons (and others), I believe it is very dangerous to hold the view that silver could get down to $7.50 or even $10 per Oz.
Click to expand...
 
I had a deja vu moment, and had to look back at previous discussions - we've been here before. ;)

STKR said:
Primary Silver miners will not operate at a loss for an extended period of time, and because global demand is dependant on the 30% of global mine output generated by the primary silver mines, a "production cost floor" develops. Mines will shut down if they're not profitable, or significantly reduce production until a higher metal price is achieved. In a deficit environment, this moves markets.
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Fantastic. Now we are getting somewhere.
As pointed out in previous discussions, silver ore is prevalent at good concentrations.
So, following your logic above, price rises will cause an increase in production. New mines will open if price makes it feasible, or old mines will reopen.
In this case, a price ceiling will develop as supply soaks up increases in demand. This is feasible because of the relatively small 30% dependancy on primary production - with only 5 major producers, it would only take 1 or 2 new primaries to cover a doubling to 60% demand.
It works both ways.
 
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