NRL Punting Thread

Game 50 - Cowboys vs Souths

Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 3 units @ 2.00
Souths +4.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 2.00
Souths / Cowboys Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.00
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
Souths Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
 
BuggedOut said:
Game 50 - Cowboys vs Souths

Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 3 units @ 2.00
Souths +4.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 2.00
Souths / Cowboys Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.00
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
Souths Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
Click to expand...


Nice One that looks like good value is:
1st tryscorer any player not listed try scorer: @8.5 (Javid Bowen is out but listed and Kane Linnett is NOT listed) Seemed like great value!

And GI to score a try anytime @3.1 (Since he has scored in all 8 previous games)
 
It's tough to get value on the "Player Not Listed" option unless you have inside info about late team changes (eg, you are at the ground and see a player go down injured in warm up)

Often the bookies are pretty quick on the team changes and you'd need atleast 2 players in the "Not Listed" category to justify the skinny 8.50 type of price. But thats just how I see it.

The other thing you need to do is take a screenshot of the entire tryscorer market so you know which players are listed and which aren't. I wouldn't put it past some bookies to add players to the tryscorer market late and claim they were there all along.

PS - I hope GI scores for you tonite. This match is looking like a calamity for me so far :(
 
BuggedOut said:
It's tough to get value on the "Player Not Listed" option unless you have inside info about late team changes (eg, you are at the ground and see a player go down injured in warm up)

Often the bookies are pretty quick on the team changes and you'd need atleast 2 players in the "Not Listed" category to justify the skinny 8.50 type of price. But thats just how I see it.

The other thing you need to do is take a screenshot of the entire tryscorer market so you know which players are listed and which aren't. I wouldn't put it past some bookies to add players to the tryscorer market late and claim they were there all along.

PS - I hope GI scores for you tonite. This match is looking like a calamity for me so far :(
Click to expand...

Thanks, definitely took a screen shot although it doesn't matter. Still need Gi to score to come out ahead as I just did a unit on each, Fast pace high scoring so hopefully!

(Just want to mention though Gavin cooper had looped around to the blind side and next man that would have got the ball if he wasn't there was Kane Linnett. Close but no cigar!)
 
Game 50 Results :-

Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 3 units @ 2.00 = -3
Souths +4.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 2.00 = -2
Souths / Cowboys Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.00 = -0.5
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5
Souths Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5

Game 50 Total = -6.5 units

Ouch. This was a terrible read and my worst of the season. Should have known better as I flagged Souths as looking tired last week. I really need to stop betting against Cowboys at home. :(
 
Game 51 - Titans vs Dragons

Dragons Over 18 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.92
Dragons +1 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.92
Dragons 1st To 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 2.00
Dragons Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 8.55
Dragons / Titans Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.65
Tyson Frizell 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00


Game 52 - Bulldogs vs Warriors

Bulldogs Win Match : 4 units @ 1.92
Bulldogs Over 20.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.10
Sam Perrett To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 2.40
Shaun Johnson Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 17.00
 
Game 53 - Brisbane vs Newcastle

Newcastle +10.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90
Brisbane -8.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 2 units @ 1.80
Anthony Milford To Score A Try : 1.5 unit @ 2.00
Brisbane Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 9.00
 
Game 51 Results :-

Dragons Over 18 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.92 = +1.84
Dragons +1 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.92 = +1.84
Dragons 1st To 10 Points : 1.5 units @ 2.00 = +1.5
Dragons Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 8.55 = -0.5
Dragons / Titans Halftime / Fulltime Double : 0.5 unit @ 8.65 = -0.5
Tyson Frizell 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00 = -0.5

Game 51 Total = +3.68 units

Dragons bouncing back after bad losses to last years grand finalists, but the markets had typically over-reacted to the lack of point scoring. :)


Game 52 Results :-

Bulldogs Win Match : 4 units @ 1.92 = -4
Bulldogs Over 20.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.10 = -2
Sam Perrett To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 2.40 = +2.1
Shaun Johnson Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 17.00 = -0.5

Game 52 Total = -4.4 units

Sam Perrett scores 2 tries and was inches from a 3rd that would have won Bulldogs the game and 2 more decent bets for me. Close but no cigar. :(


Game 53 Results :-

Newcastle +10.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90 = -2
Brisbane -8.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 2 units @ 1.80 = +1.6
Anthony Milford To Score A Try : 1.5 unit @ 2.00 = +1.5
Brisbane Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 9.00 = -0.5

Game 53 Total = +0.6 units

Picked up the wrong script again. Should have had Brisbane on the big margin but was put off by the -20.5 handicap line. Milford scores 3 tries!! :p
 
Game 54 - Canberra vs Sharks

Canberra +1.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90
Canberra 1st To 10 Points : 2 units @ 1.97
Canberra Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 2.50
Canberra / Canberra Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 3.15
Canberra 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.65
Josh Papalli 1st Tryscorer : 0.2 unit @ 22.50
 
Game 55 - Tigers vs Melbourne

Under 38 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.88
Cooper Cronk To Score A Try : 1.5 unit @ 4.50
Jordan Rankin 1st Tryscorer Tigers : 1 unit @ 7.00
Melbourne -23.5 Match Handicap : 0.5 unit @ 7.05
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.00
 
Game 54 Result :-

Canberra +1.5 Handicap 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90 = -2
Canberra 1st To 10 Points : 2 units @ 1.97 = -2
Canberra Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 2.50 = -1
Canberra / Canberra Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 3.15 = -1
Canberra 1-12 Winning Margin : 1 unit @ 3.65 = -1
Josh Papalli 1st Tryscorer : 0.2 unit @ 22.50 = -0.2

Game 54 Total = -7.2 units

Another horrible wipeout. Canberra had everything to play for but just did not show up today. They took a lot of really dumb options. :mad:
 
Game 55 Result :-

Under 38 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.88 = +2.64
Cooper Cronk To Score A Try : 1.5 unit @ 4.50 = +5.25
Jordan Rankin 1st Tryscorer Tigers : 1 unit @ 7.00 = -1
Melbourne -23.5 Match Handicap : 0.5 unit @ 7.05 = -0.5
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 10.00 = +4.5

Game 55 Total = +10.89 units

Wow! I needed that one. If ever I had to choose 1 player to play a game my life depended on, it would be Cooper Cronk. What a champion! :D
 
Game 56 - Roosters vs Penrith

Under 33.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.50
Penrith 1-12 Winning Margin : 1.5 unit @ 3.00
Penrith Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 8.00
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 9.00
Trent Merrin 1st Tryscorer : 0.2 unit @ 31.00
Trent Merrin 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half : 0.2 unit @ 36.00
 
Game 56 Result :-

Under 33.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 2.50 = -2
Penrith 1-12 Winning Margin : 1.5 unit @ 3.00 = +3
Penrith Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 8.00 = -0.5
Halftime OR Fulltime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 9.00 = -0.5
Trent Merrin 1st Tryscorer : 0.2 unit @ 31.00 = -0.2
Trent Merrin 1st Tryscorer 2nd Half : 0.2 unit @ 36.00 = -0.2

Game 56 Total = -0.4 units

Got greedy going for the lower match points line. Should have stuck with the Under 37.5 @ 1.90 and I would have been fine :(
 
Cant take a trick in picking the winners this year. Two out of 8 this week...Broncs and Cows, a blind man could have got these two right.

BuggedOut, Are you finding it hard this year to pick the winners?

Regards Errol 43
 
I got 5/8 this weekend and am 40/56 for the year.

I had Manly, Bulldogs and Canberra this weekend that lost :(
 
Round 7 Summary :-

Manly vs Parramatta = +2.1
Cowboys vs Souths = -6.5
Titans vs Dragons = +3.68
Bulldogs vs Warriors = -4.4
Newcastle vs Brisbane = +0.6
Canberra vs Sharks = -7.2
Tigers vs Melbourne = +10.89
Roosters vs Penrith = -0.4

NRL Round 7 Total = -1.23 units

Total Units Bet = 52.6
Return On Investment (ROI) = -2.3%

Bets Won / Placed = 12/42
Strike Rate (SR) = 28.5%

My first losing week for the year, which was a bit of a bitter pill. I'm acknowledging that I may be stretching my early season strategies a bit too far. As the season progresses teams find consistency and fitness. Their combinations start to gel and it gets harder to find an edge pre-game as class teams start to rise and weak teams start to show signs of fatigue and lack of motivation as the weekly grind sets in.

This is evidenced by my 2 wipeout games this week, backing Canberra and Souths. BOTH of these teams have decent forward packs and were coming off losses that should have fired them up for big games. BOTH of them started meekly and conceded 40+ points. This is a strong indicator that the early season is over and we are transitioning into what I call "The Origin Phase" where the competition is totally disrupted. This new phase is often more about "Who shows up to play" than anything else and it is almost impossible to predict that as an outsider before the match begins.

I said at the end of March that I'd continue through Rounds 5-8 which takes me through to next week but I am pulling up stumps at the end of Round 8 and I will also wind stakes back a bit next week to make sure I limit any potential downside.
 
It's a rough week for you, as at least 4 bets were just short/over by 1 or 2 points.

Thank You for sharing your tips/picks and opinion about the games. Much appreciated.
 
Futures Update

Brisbane have now firmed right up as strong favorites to win the Minor Premiership. We still have State of Origin to get through and there are now whispers about that Brisbane may also have salary cap issues this year. Price is good and not worth the risk of holding this position so time to take the profit and cash out.

My futures bet on Brisbane now results as :-

Brisbane Broncos to Win Minor Premiership : 40 units @ 5.00 (CASHED OUT @ 2.07) = +56.5 units


Meanwhile Wests Tigers have lost 5 games in a row and have firmed up to be 2nd favorite to win the Wooden Spoon. There are still a lot of variables here and they were good against Melbourne last week. They play against a Raiders side this week who were well off last week so a decent chance of ending the losing streak this weekend. Cashing out enough of my position to cover my stake.

My futures bet on West Tigers is now split into :-

West Tigers Most Losses (Dead Heat Rules Apply) : 12 units @ 7.00 (CASHED OUT @ 4.10) = +8.49 units

West Tigers Most Losses (Dead Heat Rules Apply) : 8 units @ 7.00 (STILL PENDING)
 
Game 57 - Brisbane vs Souths

Souths +6.5 Handicap 1st Half : 1.5 unit @ 1.92
Under 41.5 Match Points : 1.5 unit @ 1.93
Souths Try 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 4.00
Brisbane -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 6.25
 
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