NRL Punting Thread
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Game 16 Results :-
Manly Win Match : 3 units @ 1.70 = -3
Manly 13+ Winning Margin : 2 units @ 4.00 = -2
Martin Taupau To Score A Try : 2.5 units @ 5.10 = +10.25
Martin Taupau To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 36.00 = -0.5
Game 16 Total = +4.75
Marty Taupau!! He saved my bacon in this one. Some really very dodgy refereeing in this game - especially painful in the 2nd half. Can't complain with a profit result though :/
Manly Win Match : 3 units @ 1.70 = -3
Manly 13+ Winning Margin : 2 units @ 4.00 = -2
Martin Taupau To Score A Try : 2.5 units @ 5.10 = +10.25
Martin Taupau To Score 2+ Tries : 0.5 unit @ 36.00 = -0.5
Game 16 Total = +4.75
Marty Taupau!! He saved my bacon in this one. Some really very dodgy refereeing in this game - especially painful in the 2nd half. Can't complain with a profit result though :/
Congrats on your tipping. I got 6/8 in my comp (Missed Roosters & Manly)
Penalty count in the 2nd half was 5-1 Tigers, but the real killer was some of the on-field calls such as the Manly try that was voided because of an on-field knock-on call that should have gone to the bunker and would have been cleared. There was also a blatant professional foul on a late Manly attacking raid that was just ignored.
Who knows if it would have made a difference. BUT Tigers are a young side that is a risk of capitulation under pressure if momentum swings away from them late in the game (like it did late in the 1st half). That just wasn't allowed to happen last night.
Penalty count in the 2nd half was 5-1 Tigers, but the real killer was some of the on-field calls such as the Manly try that was voided because of an on-field knock-on call that should have gone to the bunker and would have been cleared. There was also a blatant professional foul on a late Manly attacking raid that was just ignored.
Who knows if it would have made a difference. BUT Tigers are a young side that is a risk of capitulation under pressure if momentum swings away from them late in the game (like it did late in the 1st half). That just wasn't allowed to happen last night.
NRL Round 2 Summary :-
Penrith vs Bulldogs = -2.25
Brisbane vs Warriors = +3.61
Roosters vs Canberra = -7
Souths vs Newcastle = +19.78
Parramatta vs Cowboys = -1
Sharks vs Dragons = -4.3
Storm vs Titans = -2.5
Tigers vs Manly = +4.75
NRL Round 2 Total = +11.09
A lot of frustration this round but happy to be making a profit even though 5 out of 8 games show a loss. Even with a lot of losses you can still do well in this game as long as you make your wins big and your losses small...or in other words, just keep taking good prices and the results will take care of themselves in the long run.
A few notes for the week I can improve next week :-
1. Zero strike rate on the 3 x halftime / fulltime switches this week I put down to bad luck. 2 of the games had the momentum swings I was looking for but the timings were wrong. The 3rd I had the teams the wrong way around. I might need to come up with a better way to trade those swings.
2. Zero strike rate on the 3 x 1-12 margin bets and in each instance I had the winner correct but they won by more. New interchange rule and faster paced game might be leading to bigger margins so far this year so I need to avoid backing the 1-12 margin option.
3. Fatigue may also be a factor late in the 1st half of games. 2 games I had a strong winning position but got blown out of the water with clusters of tries in the 33-40 minute bracket. Need to factor this potential fatigue into future analysis.
Penrith vs Bulldogs = -2.25
Brisbane vs Warriors = +3.61
Roosters vs Canberra = -7
Souths vs Newcastle = +19.78
Parramatta vs Cowboys = -1
Sharks vs Dragons = -4.3
Storm vs Titans = -2.5
Tigers vs Manly = +4.75
NRL Round 2 Total = +11.09
A lot of frustration this round but happy to be making a profit even though 5 out of 8 games show a loss. Even with a lot of losses you can still do well in this game as long as you make your wins big and your losses small...or in other words, just keep taking good prices and the results will take care of themselves in the long run.
A few notes for the week I can improve next week :-
1. Zero strike rate on the 3 x halftime / fulltime switches this week I put down to bad luck. 2 of the games had the momentum swings I was looking for but the timings were wrong. The 3rd I had the teams the wrong way around. I might need to come up with a better way to trade those swings.
2. Zero strike rate on the 3 x 1-12 margin bets and in each instance I had the winner correct but they won by more. New interchange rule and faster paced game might be leading to bigger margins so far this year so I need to avoid backing the 1-12 margin option.
3. Fatigue may also be a factor late in the 1st half of games. 2 games I had a strong winning position but got blown out of the water with clusters of tries in the 33-40 minute bracket. Need to factor this potential fatigue into future analysis.
W
Game 17 - Cowboys vs Roosters
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90
Cowboys -6.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 1.5 units @ 2.05
Cowboys -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.50
Cowboys Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.50
Gavin Cooper 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 17.00
Jason Taumalolo 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90
Cowboys -6.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 1.5 units @ 2.05
Cowboys -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.50
Cowboys Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.50
Gavin Cooper 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 17.00
Jason Taumalolo 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00
Game 17 Results :-
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Cowboys -6.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 1.5 units @ 2.05 = +1.575
Cowboys -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.50 = +6.5
Cowboys Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.50 = -0.5
Gavin Cooper 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 17.00 = -0.5
Jason Taumalolo 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00 = -0.5
Game 17 Total = +8.375 units
Good times! Taumalolo got a try, but not the first. Probably would have backed him for anytime tryscorer if it was a dry game. No complaints!
Under 18.5 Points 1st Half : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Cowboys -6.5 Handicap 2nd Half : 1.5 units @ 2.05 = +1.575
Cowboys -29.5 Match Handicap : 1 unit @ 7.50 = +6.5
Cowboys Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.50 = -0.5
Gavin Cooper 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 17.00 = -0.5
Jason Taumalolo 1st Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 26.00 = -0.5
Game 17 Total = +8.375 units
Good times! Taumalolo got a try, but not the first. Probably would have backed him for anytime tryscorer if it was a dry game. No complaints!
Didnt really think that you could have nailed for cowboy -29.5 match handicap....i was totally wrong!
Keep it up BuggedOut
Game 18 - Bulldogs vs Parramatta
NO BET
NOTE - At this stage there are some serious variables that are unknown. Keiran Foran is in doubt again and his in/out would make a massive change in my strategy for this game. The other big variable is the weather. Lots of patchy rain in and around Sydney right now and a lot depends on whether it clears up for the game or stays wet.
I may throw up a (very) late bet or 2, but far too risky to take a position this early with 2 big unknowns.
NO BET
NOTE - At this stage there are some serious variables that are unknown. Keiran Foran is in doubt again and his in/out would make a massive change in my strategy for this game. The other big variable is the weather. Lots of patchy rain in and around Sydney right now and a lot depends on whether it clears up for the game or stays wet.
I may throw up a (very) late bet or 2, but far too risky to take a position this early with 2 big unknowns.
Game 18 - Bulldogs vs Parramatta
Parramatta +4.5 Match Handicap : 3 units @ 1.91
Under 38.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90
Parramatta Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
* Expecting Foran to be playing and conditions to be "greasy" but no further rain during the game.
Parramatta +4.5 Match Handicap : 3 units @ 1.91
Under 38.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90
Parramatta Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00
* Expecting Foran to be playing and conditions to be "greasy" but no further rain during the game.
TeaPot&ChopSticks
New Member
Missed out on the power play of the week ! Too worn out from work to bet on it. Unhappy Jan !
Smart move with NO BET BuggedOut There will always be another time - especially with the AFL coming next week.
What is Your View on the Broncos Away Game Versus the Panthers at Home?
I like the Broncos, but not enough yet to put Money on Them.
Smart move with NO BET BuggedOut There will always be another time - especially with the AFL coming next week.
What is Your View on the Broncos Away Game Versus the Panthers at Home?
I like the Broncos, but not enough yet to put Money on Them.
Game 18 Results :-
Parramatta +4.5 Match Handicap : 3 units @ 1.91 = +2.73
Under 38.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Parramatta Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5
Game 18 Total = +3.53 units
Another quality effort from Parramatta.
Parramatta +4.5 Match Handicap : 3 units @ 1.91 = +2.73
Under 38.5 Match Points : 2 units @ 1.90 = +1.8
Parramatta Penalty Goal 1st Scoring Play : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5
Halftime Draw : 0.5 unit @ 11.00 = -0.5
Game 18 Total = +3.53 units
Another quality effort from Parramatta.
Game 21 - Titans vs Tigers
Titans +1 Handicap 1st Half : 3 units @ 1.86
Greg Bird To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 5.00
Agnatius Paasi To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 6.55
Titans / Tigers Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 8.50
Draw at Halftime OR Fulltime : 0.5 unit @ 8.50
Titans +1 Handicap 1st Half : 3 units @ 1.86
Greg Bird To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 5.00
Agnatius Paasi To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 6.55
Titans / Tigers Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 8.50
Draw at Halftime OR Fulltime : 0.5 unit @ 8.50
Game 19 Results :-
Over 45.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.88 = +2.64
Newcastle Win Match : 2 units @ 2.44 = +0.44 (DEAD HEAT)
Josh Papalii To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.00 = +3
Newcastle 13+ Winning Margin : 0.5 unit @ 6.15 = -0.5
Game 19 Total = +5.58 units
Encouraging comeback by Newcastle after being 16-0 down, but couldn't clinch it. Papalii got the 1st try of the game.
Game 20 Results :-
Under 20 Points 2nd Half : 3 units @ 1.82 = +2.46
Under 15.5 Penrith Points : 3 units @ 1.98 = -3
Brisbane Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 11.00 = -1
Anthony Milford Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 15.00 = -0.5
Game 20 Total = -2.04 units
Brisbane tried to grind this out but Penrith got the momentum and came home with a wet sail. Really good game for me with some in-play trade because the market didn't acknowledge the momentum shift.
Game 21 Results :-
Titans +1 Handicap 1st Half : 3 units @ 1.86 = -3
Greg Bird To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 5.00 = -1.5
Agnatius Paasi To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 6.55 = -1.5
Titans / Tigers Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 8.50 = -1
Draw at Halftime OR Fulltime : 0.5 unit @ 8.50 = -0.5
Game 21 Total = -7.5 units
Ouch. A wipeout! Again I get the HT/FT switch the wrong way around. Can't believe I backed the Titans 1st half and lost when they ended up winning by 12.
Over 45.5 Match Points : 3 units @ 1.88 = +2.64
Newcastle Win Match : 2 units @ 2.44 = +0.44 (DEAD HEAT)
Josh Papalii To Score A Try : 1 unit @ 4.00 = +3
Newcastle 13+ Winning Margin : 0.5 unit @ 6.15 = -0.5
Game 19 Total = +5.58 units
Encouraging comeback by Newcastle after being 16-0 down, but couldn't clinch it. Papalii got the 1st try of the game.
Game 20 Results :-
Under 20 Points 2nd Half : 3 units @ 1.82 = +2.46
Under 15.5 Penrith Points : 3 units @ 1.98 = -3
Brisbane Penalty 1st Scoring Play : 1 unit @ 11.00 = -1
Anthony Milford Last Tryscorer : 0.5 unit @ 15.00 = -0.5
Game 20 Total = -2.04 units
Brisbane tried to grind this out but Penrith got the momentum and came home with a wet sail. Really good game for me with some in-play trade because the market didn't acknowledge the momentum shift.
Game 21 Results :-
Titans +1 Handicap 1st Half : 3 units @ 1.86 = -3
Greg Bird To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 5.00 = -1.5
Agnatius Paasi To Score A Try : 1.5 units @ 6.55 = -1.5
Titans / Tigers Halftime / Fulltime Double : 1 unit @ 8.50 = -1
Draw at Halftime OR Fulltime : 0.5 unit @ 8.50 = -0.5
Game 21 Total = -7.5 units
Ouch. A wipeout! Again I get the HT/FT switch the wrong way around. Can't believe I backed the Titans 1st half and lost when they ended up winning by 12.