Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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Stoic Phoenix said:
I think its important to look at BTC as an asset, not a currency..... btc is an asset that (historically) increases in price as opposed to "currency" which loses value over time due to inflationary causes.
If you are looking to preserve value over time as per your question ....any fiat currency fails at this.
Therefore I would look at an ASSET that increases or at a minimum preserves value over time.
Real time inflation is closer to 7% (CPI is gay) year on year so you need an asset to increase by that same amount to merely preserve your value.
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I agree with your points, but you are just arguing semantics. You are used to currency losing its value over time, because we no longer have sound money. That doesn't mean that is a desirable attribute for a currency.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
If it's hoarded then it may lead to shortages of available currency for transactions. Currency is really just a scorecard where "points" are just added ie "deposits" or deleted ie "withdrawals" from a column in a balance sheet.

The "valuable" stuff are the assets/goods/services that those withdrawals and deposits are exchanged for.
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Bitcoin is divisible. We won't run out.
 
Brendio said:
I agree with your points, but you are just arguing semantics. You are used to currency losing its value over time, because we no longer have sound money. That doesn't mean that is a desirable attribute for a currency.
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I dont know what semantics you are referring to sorry.

Seeing btc as an asset as opposed to a currency is far from semantics, it just is.
Eg 1 - 2018 SEC ruling on BTC as non securities.
Eg 2 - 2024 SEC ruling on BTC ETFs

As for currency losing value over time I never suggested it was a desirable attribute. In fact its quite the opposite.
 
Risk-off appetite weighed on the price of BTC and it's currently hovering around the top of my uppermost support zone. There's a bit of talk around "double tops" being reminiscent of 2021's capitulation event, I don't put much credence in that as the price action this cycle has been anything but similar to the last cycle. The easiest thing in the world is to apply elementary TA to the charts and be proven completely wrong.

As far as 130K by June 30 goes well we were running ahead of schedule for most of May's price actin but some of the steam has escaped and we're seeing a period of consolidation. Of course this year has been absolutely chaotic on the political front which has been throwing surprise after surprise at the financial markets.

BTCUSD_2025-06-17_07-45-06.png
 
One day to go and the $130K price by the EOFY is looking more unlikely by the day. :p

Consolidation in that upper support range. And for the TA junkies the 100DMA has crossed the 200.

BTCUSD_2025-06-29_09-16-51.png
 
And where we stand from a four-year-cycle perspective, the current cycle and the previous one on the monthly:

BTCUSD_2025-06-29_09-27-27.png
 
We're sitting on the floor at the moment with the gold v BTC ratio, at around 5 year lows thanks to the chaos out of the US, Europe and the Middle-East supporting the POG.

XAUBTC_2025-07-17_09-43-34.png
 
On the flip side, since the recent Trump Crypto Act a few whales have just quietly sold their entire BTC stack as well as ETH, stack ranging from 10’s of millions to $9.6 billion.
Institutions purchasing, leaving questions why are the whale’s liquidating if the act is bullish for crypto?
 
I do think Many whales may have been holding since lower prices and are cashing out near all-time highs, especially with regulatory clarity reducing uncertainty.
Also Large holders often diversify into other assets (e.g., real estate, equities, or even altcoins) after major legislative shifts.
 
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