BTC price is through resistance at the low 90's, that will now be our level of support looking forward.
Monitoring the Crypto Bubble
- Thread starter Bullion Baron
- Start date
And if there's anyone left playing the game of "alt season", just stop. Just like silver, it doesn't work anymore:
Looking for the market to open the new week May 12 in the US above about $95.5K which is the top of my not-so-accurate resistance/support zone. You can also see the next level of resistance at around $100K. Also looks like I'm going to have to lengthen some of those resistance/support zones in pink as time marches inexorably along. If it all plays out to plan then we may see a break out in June this year. Probably have to wait until the next FOMC though for any big move either way.
Thoughts as we're moving toward and possibly setting a new ATH?
A couple of charts and a few comments.
Short term the US market is closed for the week and BTC is over $100K which happened a bit quicker than I was expecting as we speared through the previous resistance/support zone around $90K and entered the last one around the 100K mark with blue sky above. So it's going to open on Monday on the US stock market well above the $95K level I was hoping for. The only worry we have is a short term correction if profit takers pull the trigger as just over 90% of BTC supply is in profit, I'm sure some will take advantage of the new levels but I'm also sure any sells will be scooped up. Profit taking for HODLers at this stage comes with risk of course ie getting locked out of the market.
Failing a correction as a result of profit taking we may see a period of consolidation over the next few weeks leading up to the June 17/18 FOMC meeting. Consolidation periods this year seem to have lasted anywhere from 2 - 4 weeks or so.
On a bigger picture level the price action seems to be playing out along the lines of my pre-school analysis I noticed toward the end of February as indicated by the purple path. You can see I've taken a stab and predicted a price of $130K come June 30. How accurate or inaccurate that is remains to be seen. I'll be happy to take any shit if it doesn't play out that way, conversely if it does I'll be honest and tell you it was just a lucky guess based on historical price action. One thing I'm 99% certain is it's not going to get anywhere near some of the bearish calls others on this forum have made recently ie $65K, $60, $25k or even $10K this cycle before moving significantly higher.
Short term the US market is closed for the week and BTC is over $100K which happened a bit quicker than I was expecting as we speared through the previous resistance/support zone around $90K and entered the last one around the 100K mark with blue sky above. So it's going to open on Monday on the US stock market well above the $95K level I was hoping for. The only worry we have is a short term correction if profit takers pull the trigger as just over 90% of BTC supply is in profit, I'm sure some will take advantage of the new levels but I'm also sure any sells will be scooped up. Profit taking for HODLers at this stage comes with risk of course ie getting locked out of the market.
Failing a correction as a result of profit taking we may see a period of consolidation over the next few weeks leading up to the June 17/18 FOMC meeting. Consolidation periods this year seem to have lasted anywhere from 2 - 4 weeks or so.
On a bigger picture level the price action seems to be playing out along the lines of my pre-school analysis I noticed toward the end of February as indicated by the purple path. You can see I've taken a stab and predicted a price of $130K come June 30. How accurate or inaccurate that is remains to be seen. I'll be happy to take any shit if it doesn't play out that way, conversely if it does I'll be honest and tell you it was just a lucky guess based on historical price action. One thing I'm 99% certain is it's not going to get anywhere near some of the bearish calls others on this forum have made recently ie $65K, $60, $25k or even $10K this cycle before moving significantly higher.
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Stepping back to the monthly and you can see that this cycle is more similar to the 2017 cycle than the previous double top cycle in 2021, this has been pointed out many months ago by the likes of Bob Loukas etc.
We see periods where the price accelerates, dips, then re-accelerates. This time around it's nowhere near as steep largely due to the higher prices involved I'd say but that could change as it did in April 2017 when the price appreciation went parabolic.
I added a small amount to my personal stack mid week. I haven't added to my SMSF stack for some years now as I didn't fully understand the cyclical nature of the market and missed the lows. I've completely stopped buying alts as most are going to zero.
We see periods where the price accelerates, dips, then re-accelerates. This time around it's nowhere near as steep largely due to the higher prices involved I'd say but that could change as it did in April 2017 when the price appreciation went parabolic.
I added a small amount to my personal stack mid week. I haven't added to my SMSF stack for some years now as I didn't fully understand the cyclical nature of the market and missed the lows. I've completely stopped buying alts as most are going to zero.
very sharp snap back on the ETHBTC pair on the back of the recent BTC rally.
I'm more optimistic for an eventual alt season, though I'm thinking it'll be a bit subdued compared to past cycles.
ETHBTC is trying to find a bottom around the same level it bottomed at in 2020, near the 0.017 mark. I'd like to see a double bottom form on the ETHBTC pair to be confident of a turnaround in the ETHBTC valuation, targeting my upper declining trendline for the top in this cycle
I'm more optimistic for an eventual alt season, though I'm thinking it'll be a bit subdued compared to past cycles.
ETHBTC is trying to find a bottom around the same level it bottomed at in 2020, near the 0.017 mark. I'd like to see a double bottom form on the ETHBTC pair to be confident of a turnaround in the ETHBTC valuation, targeting my upper declining trendline for the top in this cycle
Based on historical price action ETH holders are hoping this and the next upgrade will fuel momentum going forward. Past upgrades have only led to short term spikes that have shown to be unsustainable in the main, with the exception of the crypto mania phase leading up to the highs of late 2021. I imagine however that they're pinning their hopes on the fact that this upgrade was also introduced during the bull phase of the crypto cycle and are somewhat optimistic that it will enable ETH to "outperform" the market. Time will tell, personally I don't hold any ETH and am somewhat dubious that this is the beginning of a long term price rally. For ETH holders I hope I'm wrong.
Of course the glaring difference between the Ethereum network and the BTC network is that the former is dynamic ie constantly changing and that upgrades are planned well into the future. Presumably the final upgrade is meant to deliver the polished product. A cynic would could argue that these upgrades are in part designed to pump the price. Cynics come in two camps - those who don't know what they're talking about and those that do. I'm not a cynic so I'll reserve my judgment.
This chart shows the major upgrades during this cycle and their impact on price:
Of course the glaring difference between the Ethereum network and the BTC network is that the former is dynamic ie constantly changing and that upgrades are planned well into the future. Presumably the final upgrade is meant to deliver the polished product. A cynic would could argue that these upgrades are in part designed to pump the price. Cynics come in two camps - those who don't know what they're talking about and those that do. I'm not a cynic so I'll reserve my judgment.
This chart shows the major upgrades during this cycle and their impact on price:
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On another note haven't the bears and BTC-haters gone suddenly quiet?
If it were me I'd be evaluating the feedback from the recent bullish move and assessing what led me so astray.
If it were me I'd be evaluating the feedback from the recent bullish move and assessing what led me so astray.
Net flows ETH ETF:
Note the buying last month, is this an indication of a possible sell off?
Note the buying last month, is this an indication of a possible sell off?
BTC ETF net flows:
Short term consolidation phase between the resistance zone we're currently in (100 - 105K) and the support zone around the 93K mark?
And net BTC inflows still green on the whole:
BTC has broken out of my resistance zone around the 100 - 105K mark and hit 108 on Tradingview a short time ago. There's still 3 days left of trading on the US market but hoping it holds above 106 at close of trade Friday. Of more interest is that the 50 day SMA looks like it's going to cross the 200. The last 2 times this has occurred in this cycle saw a significant acceleration in price. See the blue arrows.
Overnight BTC set a new ATH of $109,565.
BTC market dominance still over 64%.
Against a couple of the majors:
ETH
I'm thinking the short term "pop" due to the upgrade has extinguished itself.
XRP
Bagholders will probably have to wait for the price to return to some of the lows before the Ripple team will drop some more FOMO (see the purple arrows) in order to bump the price and snaffle up some short term profits from all the exit liquidity they created in the first couple of months of this year.
BTC market dominance still over 64%.
Against a couple of the majors:
ETH
I'm thinking the short term "pop" due to the upgrade has extinguished itself.
XRP
Bagholders will probably have to wait for the price to return to some of the lows before the Ripple team will drop some more FOMO (see the purple arrows) in order to bump the price and snaffle up some short term profits from all the exit liquidity they created in the first couple of months of this year.
The 50 has just crossed the 200, now to see whether it holds.
My crystal ball until June 30 tells me 8 - 14 days at this level circa $11K, the circa 120K early June week ending 8th, wait another 8 - 14 days and the final week of June should see $130K just in time for EOFY.