IPDA
Active Member
Every retail trader uses fear and greed indexes. Remember, 99% of retail traders fail and blow their accounts. Point is, I wouldn't be putting too much faith in that as a suggestion we're going to rip higher.
Monitoring the Crypto Bubble
- Thread starter Bullion Baron
- Start date
It's a good thing then that nearly 100% of holders on this forum are not traders but HODLers.
It's all about the macro. Always has been, always will be. Just like gold.
And contrary to your thesis, retail investors have done pretty good because we get the macro.
IPDA
Active Member
Retail always gets fleeced, in each of those cycles they were also getting double fisted. If you held on, sure, but most people in crypto are in it for a quick buck and would not have held till the tippity top.
If I'm correct about a long-term XAUBTC reversal, it would mean serious devaluation on the Bitcoin price. Maybe a bear cycle that has never really been seen before. The fact that arbitrary moving averages like the 200-day EMA or whatever have actually had success in determing bottoming prices, makes me very suspicious of a larger flush out occuring.
BTC net inflows in the green again. There's been some selling for a while.
https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf
https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf
One last 10-20% dip before ath?
Ummmmm....
1. This is a chart I posted at the end of last month remarking on the similarity in the price behaviour between March - Oct 2024 and currently. Is this a reversal to new ATHs? Will the price roll over and we start a crypto winter? Do we get a short term bounce, then a test at the current level again before the price takes off?
I'm leaning toward the third scenario, with the first scenario being more likely than the third but at much lower odds of happening. If I was to pick a random number I'd say scenario 3 has a 60% chance, scenario 1 - 25% and scenario 2 - 15% and they're not calculated using any mathematical process, they're just numbers plucked out of the air in order to create a picture.
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2. The current economic climate in the US, the heightened geo-political risk in Europe and the Middle East, combined with Musk's drive to trim government largesse and the impact of tariffs is creating a risk-off environment which is not conducive to investing in BTC - witness what is happening with gold. That's been creating downward pressure on BTC.
3. Now, the first clue we get going forward will be tomorrow's (US time) FOMC decision where I think JPow and co. rather than cut rates will indicate a level of dovishness in response to the perception held by most US households that the economy is going to enter a recession. Now lowering rates won't encourage enough business activity to instil confidence in the economy, it will require the Fed to pull another policy lever, but lowering the overnight cash rate can make it cheaper for the US to issue more debt, something which Trump is intent on achieving. We may see a short term bounce in risk asset prices (and a decline in gold), and then the dust will settle.
4. I think the big moves won't come until we see The Fed pulling the other policy lever - QE. Or "not" QE QE or whatever other alphabet salad they create to label their policy of expanding their balance sheet.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
There'll be an update to this chart out tomorrow as well, current up to the 18 Feb, it will be interesting to see if that tiny upward momentum is continued or not.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
There'll be an update to this chart out tomorrow as well, current up to the 18 Feb, it will be interesting to see if that tiny upward momentum is continued or not.
5. Global liquidity trend and the price of BTC.
The massive moves have occurred when global liquidity's trajectory is rising. But despite it falling since around 2023 as CBs began to shrink their balance sheets, the price of BTC still managed to appreciate. The question now is has BTC run its course, or will a surge in liquidity drive funds into risk assets and BTC moons as it has done in the past?? And what happens between now and then if that actually eventuates?
The massive moves have occurred when global liquidity's trajectory is rising. But despite it falling since around 2023 as CBs began to shrink their balance sheets, the price of BTC still managed to appreciate. The question now is has BTC run its course, or will a surge in liquidity drive funds into risk assets and BTC moons as it has done in the past?? And what happens between now and then if that actually eventuates?
I am going for scenario 3 as well. Before we can move to a new all time high, we need to break through the 93k barrier first which I expect to have alot of headwind before breaking above. Once we break above it will setup as our new support. Within that move north, we might have a bit of a flashcrash. If you follow the 4year cycle, then there is not that long to go. Perhaps 6-9mths.
Of course I'm not saying anything you haven't already considered, but what happens if the 4 year cycle is a relic of the past and we're now just in a "market"?
Off the top of my head: bye-bye winter, bye-bye mania, hello steady appreciation.
And one more article about the balance sheet, just to ensure everyone sleeps soundly:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central...b?st=52zNSy&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
This article has been updated since The Fed's announcement.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central...b?st=52zNSy&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
This article has been updated since The Fed's announcement.
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So the market liked what it heard.
But The Fed hasn't tilted yet.
But The Fed hasn't tilted yet.
It's about as dovish as can possibly be though considering the circumstances and uncertainties.
BTC flows still net positive:
I don't know anything about respect when it comes to commodity pairs but I do know most of us are expecting a pullback once this false spike settles. If it happens it won't be far below the recent lows if it gets that far.
Following that of course is QE and as we all should know, it's the macro that matters. And for anyone that doesn't know, it's the macro that matters.
Following that of course is QE and as we all should know, it's the macro that matters. And for anyone that doesn't know, it's the macro that matters.