What are you basing that interpretation on?
Monitoring the Crypto Bubble
- Thread starter Bullion Baron
- Start date
What are you basing that interpretation on?
IPDA
Active Member
Real time example of how to use RSI properly. You use it to fade retail expectations, none of this overbought // oversold nonesense.
If you see a retail bullish divergence, when indeed the asset is bearish, then you want to see price fail to go higher while the RSI does. It's a type 2 trend following, just with fading retail traders as a premise.
Using the monthly to get the best indication of long term trends we see the cycles within cycles. The bulls are trying to work out where we are currently. The bears know exactly as they always do. 
Double top in Nasdaq, now below the 200 testing for resistance and possibly getting rejected downwards.
H and s in btc playing out, now testing the neckline making bear flags in the process.
Possible earlier double top and at the 200 now.
Uncle Fibby is pooping his draws.
Just a few interesting things to watch.
If btc continues the head and forms the last shoulder on the longer time frames we could be looking at -10k for btc in time.
Not financial advice, im that guy that lives in the bus.
H and s in btc playing out, now testing the neckline making bear flags in the process.
Possible earlier double top and at the 200 now.
Uncle Fibby is pooping his draws.
Just a few interesting things to watch.
If btc continues the head and forms the last shoulder on the longer time frames we could be looking at -10k for btc in time.
Not financial advice, im that guy that lives in the bus.
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IPDA
Active Member
And bulls are always blinded by greed. Notice how that previous monthly bullish open is now being used as "resistance"... that's not random, that's called bearish order flow. And if you look at the weekly you'll notice a topping pattern - well maybe you wouldn't, it's an institutional topping pattern, not retail logic.Using the monthly to get the best indication of long term trends we see the cycles within cycles. The bulls are trying to work out where we are currently. The bears know exactly as they always do.
View attachment 93695
No. I don't notice it. Show me
IPDA
Active Member
And there you have it.
That's a dump? Lol.
Just more standard BTC volatility. But I guess from a trader's perspective a few % here or there is massive.
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IPDA
Active Member
Exactly, a 4% dump to me is pretty sizeable, I started in the currency market and sometimes there’s periods where squeezing 50 pips in a week is the norm.
IPDA
Active Member
I mean it’s over a 6% dump, even in Bitcoin terms that’s a pretty large range.
Closer to -20K I'd say if that scenario plays out. But if it did "form a head" then that puts the price in the danger zones previously mentioned so I wouldn't see a shoulder forming but rather a decline down to some of those price points.
Interesting though because your "head and shoulders" and testing the 200 SMA looks remarkably similar to the price action in April to Oct 2023 and March - Sept 2024 (ee the charts below). The picture of correlation between BTC and NASDAQ is murkier, all I can see is that most of the time the two are highly correlated but that there are periods where it breaks down and these appear to be times where BTC goes on a run. So as far as using it as an indicator of price action, I'm a little less convinced.
Putting it together, on the weekly you see scenario 1 playing out rather than scenario 2?
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
But not unprecedented, even in bull markets.
betterinvestmentthanshare
Well-Known Member
Hmmmm, Strategic BTC Reserve?
Anyone hoping this will pump BTC might want to rethink how this will happen.
Something tells me that this BTC won’t be purchased but seized.
My opinion only.
Bubbles of nothing that really makes it something.
Anyone hoping this will pump BTC might want to rethink how this will happen.
Something tells me that this BTC won’t be purchased but seized.
My opinion only.
Bubbles of nothing that really makes it something.
IPDA
Active Member
From what I read, anything that may involve federal spending needs to be first passed through congress, regardless if it's an executive order. If this is indeed true, there is a chance the whole concept of a strategic Bitcoin reserve just never happens lol.
This is BTC from a Weekly Coinspot Chart in Aud.
Looking at the chart it is not that dissimilar to previous cycles.
One difference was we had an earlier runup than expected
Just different circumstances in different times as BTC matures.
Alot of people forget the Low we came from at the beginning of this cycle in 2022.
We had a solid runup from Oct 23 to March 24.
That was followed up with a sideways movement for about 6 months before taking it to
the next level from September 24 to late January 25.
So, where are we today?
I do believe that we are in the final upleg of this cycle.
Might not appear that way at present considering we have dropped about 25% from the market top.
There is a real possibility that we may drop down to 40% from the top which would put us high 60's - low 70's in USD.
If that were to occur, are we still in a Bull Market? Well, just going on history, 2017 showed clearly that extreme moves shaking out the final sellers
could very well be the best opportunity to buy at the Low of the downtrend. Alot of people discuss Lefthand v's Righthand translated Cycles. Just remember the S&P has had
the occasional left hand translated cycle and we would follow the lead of the S&P if that were to take place. BTC is still in its infancy and we are yet to see one. Even though Trump has said there won't be any Interest Rate cuts this year, if the market
were to continue this slide, the Fed may not have a choice. Also with the USD continueing to go South, this is a good thing for the market, in particular BTC.
As an old fogey
, I purposely avoid the noise and stick with the plan.
It ain't over until the Fat Lady Sings.
Don't be suckered out of your positions.
Thats my murmerings for the day.
Enjoy the rest of your day.
Looking at the chart it is not that dissimilar to previous cycles.
One difference was we had an earlier runup than expected
Just different circumstances in different times as BTC matures.
Alot of people forget the Low we came from at the beginning of this cycle in 2022.
We had a solid runup from Oct 23 to March 24.
That was followed up with a sideways movement for about 6 months before taking it to
the next level from September 24 to late January 25.
So, where are we today?
I do believe that we are in the final upleg of this cycle.
Might not appear that way at present considering we have dropped about 25% from the market top.
There is a real possibility that we may drop down to 40% from the top which would put us high 60's - low 70's in USD.
If that were to occur, are we still in a Bull Market? Well, just going on history, 2017 showed clearly that extreme moves shaking out the final sellers
could very well be the best opportunity to buy at the Low of the downtrend. Alot of people discuss Lefthand v's Righthand translated Cycles. Just remember the S&P has had
the occasional left hand translated cycle and we would follow the lead of the S&P if that were to take place. BTC is still in its infancy and we are yet to see one. Even though Trump has said there won't be any Interest Rate cuts this year, if the market
were to continue this slide, the Fed may not have a choice. Also with the USD continueing to go South, this is a good thing for the market, in particular BTC.
As an old fogey
, I purposely avoid the noise and stick with the plan.It ain't over until the Fat Lady Sings.
Don't be suckered out of your positions.
Thats my murmerings for the day.
Enjoy the rest of your day.
Re: the SBR, at the very least the Executive arm of the US government has been forced to finally and publicly acknowledge the value of BTC as a financial asset. I think they're largely wrong when they argue that previous sales of seized BTC have led to a loss to the people of whatever $$ figure was quoted because that's completely irrelevant for a nation like the US but I do see as real the Executive's desire to take first-mover advantage against any competition in particular China.
There are plenty of other jusrisdictions introducing or debating bills before their parliaments/councils to establish BTC reserves and in many cases there is a financial advantage for those bodies that either do not create any world reserve currencies or don't create any currencies of their own ie they are revenue constrained.
The Australian Libertarian Party has adopted a policy to establish a SBR, which of course is just a dumb idea and tarnishes their generally sound 2025 policy platform (with the exception of their plan to run gov't surpluses).
There are plenty of other jusrisdictions introducing or debating bills before their parliaments/councils to establish BTC reserves and in many cases there is a financial advantage for those bodies that either do not create any world reserve currencies or don't create any currencies of their own ie they are revenue constrained.
The Australian Libertarian Party has adopted a policy to establish a SBR, which of course is just a dumb idea and tarnishes their generally sound 2025 policy platform (with the exception of their plan to run gov't surpluses).
Filled the gap.
Now we wait and see how the macro events play out. Stuff to look out for - Trump's efforts to crush the stock market in an attempt to drive $$ into bonds thereby lowering the 10 yr which makes it cheaper to issue debt, The Fed ending QT, cash rate and maybe QE if it sees the need. Don't be surprised if we see a short term rally, then a test near the current levels followed by another leg up toward the end of year highs. We may see the SPX rally short term as well, until Trump's plans take hold. US 30y mortgage rates down to 6.63% now. Lots to keep us interested.
Now we wait and see how the macro events play out. Stuff to look out for - Trump's efforts to crush the stock market in an attempt to drive $$ into bonds thereby lowering the 10 yr which makes it cheaper to issue debt, The Fed ending QT, cash rate and maybe QE if it sees the need. Don't be surprised if we see a short term rally, then a test near the current levels followed by another leg up toward the end of year highs. We may see the SPX rally short term as well, until Trump's plans take hold. US 30y mortgage rates down to 6.63% now. Lots to keep us interested.
The alternative of course is that we get a short term rally, then the price slices through that new level of support which could signal "hasta la vista senorita". But I don't think so.
The monthly has just gone green but still at that resistance.
I don't think it'll be much longer before it breaks out. Bullish sentiment is returning.
