Monitoring the Crypto Bubble
- Thread starter Bullion Baron
- Start date
So if no re-pricing of gold then how does the US and the Aussie Gov get out of debt?
I am pretty naive and thought the only other way is to inflate their way out of it which would mean $200 for a loaf of bread.
Is there another way for government's of this world to get out of debt?
I am pretty naive and thought the only other way is to inflate their way out of it which would mean $200 for a loaf of bread.
Is there another way for government's of this world to get out of debt?
Real $ Return
Well-Known Member
Changing definitions of inflation,recession,etc have worked well so far...Nothing to worry bout inflations at only 3%
What? Food and energy prices are at 20% plus...just leave em out hey 
Housing up 40%? Get the hell outta here folks...they'll throw theyre hands up smiling 3% next year goal achieved. Technical recession for years? Piss off we changed that,look around and all is well 
What Debt my friend? Our "official statistics" declare that all is well and we are still the lucky country...GDP Dropped to 0.8%? NP up the immigration 1500 a day isnt enough 
Golden ChipMunk
Well-Known Member
Gov are not professional, bunch of clowns that put together.
I think we need DOGE here too and sacked many of the useless one away.
By reducing the issuance of Treasury securities over time and closing or reducing the provision of government services requiring the private sector to meet demand.
The question is "Should the US and Aussie governments aim to be debt free?" And the answer is "No, as our as our economies are mostly credit fuelled."
Or alternatively - "If fiat currency is created out of thin air, then is debt denominated in fiat currency even an issue?"
Governments don't really inflate away debt, well not deliberately anyway, it's just an outcome of fiat denominated currencies. And bread won't reach $200/loaf as a result of normal inflation for ages as long as the country has the productive capacity to meet demand.
Isn't that cherry picking? Disputing the inflation data but citing the GDP data as evidence?
Real $ Return
Well-Known Member
Indeed it is mate but same could be said for almost every subject matter on earth...from PMs to BTC my comment was a generalisation of facts and figures were told compared to what the reality is we seeIsn't that cherry picking? Disputing the inflation data but citing the GDP data as evidence?
I'm just curious as to why one set of government generated data is acceptable to use as evidence, but another is considered manipulated and therefore not justifiable.
Edit to add: I'm happy to accept the CPI figures for what they are therefore I don't consider them manipulated. That could make me biased.
Edit to add: I'm happy to accept the CPI figures for what they are therefore I don't consider them manipulated. That could make me biased.
IPDA
Active Member
I'm just curious as to why one set of government generated data is acceptable to use as evidence, but another is considered manipulated and therefore not justifiable.
Edit to add: I'm happy to accept the CPI figures for what they are therefore I don't consider them manipulated. That could make me biased.
All government data has a skewed interest attached to it. Keep the masses at bay. It's all manipulated.
There's been a few indepedent statisticians calculate the real rate of inflation, and it shows a lot higher than government figures. I think the best way to understand the economy is just by using your two eyes, when I look around at suburbs I used to frequent often almost all the businesses are gone, all have signs up saying "for lease". This to me signals that a lot businesses just can't make a go of it anymore, that's not a strong economy.
IPDA
Active Member
What worries me the most is that I believe bond prices will continue to rise, but maybe not risk assets... Which brings into question what event is on the horizon where capital is being allocated into safety assets like government bonds & precious metals, but NOT in equities and crypto.
I know usually lower rates (i.e., increasing bond prices) would promote greater risk in equities and crypto, but I don't think that'll be the case this time around.
I know usually lower rates (i.e., increasing bond prices) would promote greater risk in equities and crypto, but I don't think that'll be the case this time around.
Regarding official statistics, while I acknowledge no measure of economic performance is without fault I don't sit in the manipulation camp. I've got to park my arse somewhere for periods of a time and I've found it best to keep well away from there as it's often a rabbit hole of inconsistencies and innuendo.
IPDA
Active Member
I see this as pretty unlikely. If the 10-Year Treasury note really starts to tick higher, this will not be a good for the dollar. Lower yields have an inverse relation with the dollar. Over the past few years DXY is showing extreme weakness, as yields went higher it should have been anticipated - as these markets are symmetrical - that the DXY would make higher highs, and yet it couldn't all while bonds made lower lows.
Plus, you should see where the DXY is on a monthly level... Notice what it did in Jul - October till now too. It first took sell side liquidity out, shaking out long participants but also inducing short positions, then aggresively went to an area of buy side liquidity to distribute to protective stops & breakout traders. I mentioned this exact level on another forum called HotCopper months ago as a likely longer-term reversal area of the dollar. IMO the intermediate-term draw on liquidity for DXY is @ 98, but longer-term is 81.
Thanks, I'm taking the opposite view despite the fact that analysing yields are above my pay grade so my argument goes:
1 yields don't drive markets they reflect them
2. the economic impact of Trump's planned policies are deflationary for the US, the inflationary pressures are exported driving the USD higher
3. a higher USD creates more demand for USD denominated assets to meet debt obligations, engage in trade and rebalance reserves
Therefore: DXY goes boing!
What will be interesting I reckon is the effect on the AUD because I think Trump will exempt Australian goods for security reasons.
1 yields don't drive markets they reflect them
2. the economic impact of Trump's planned policies are deflationary for the US, the inflationary pressures are exported driving the USD higher
3. a higher USD creates more demand for USD denominated assets to meet debt obligations, engage in trade and rebalance reserves
Therefore: DXY goes boing!
What will be interesting I reckon is the effect on the AUD because I think Trump will exempt Australian goods for security reasons.
IPDA
Active Member
WE WILL SEE!Thanks, I'm taking the opposite view despite the fact that analysing yields are above my pay grade so my argument goes:
1 yields don't drive markets they reflect them
2. the economic impact of Trump's planned policies are deflationary for the US, the inflationary pressures are exported driving the USD higher
3. a higher USD creates more demand for USD denominated assets to meet debt obligations, engage in trade and rebalance reserves
Therefore: DXY goes boing!
What will be interesting I reckon is the effect on the AUD because I think Trump will exempt Australian goods for security reasons.
I think even in the 15 minutes we're going to see DXY lower... Let's see if I'm right, I think in the ultra short-term the nearest draw on liquidity is the original consolidation prior to asian open, which is @ 105.950.
I'm hoping we see a test of support around the low 90's, that would enhance my confidence going forward into the new year.
Boys over at Forward Guidance talking about MSTR's price. Mostly over my head (puts, calls, options etc etc) but what I think they're saying is that Saylor has been selling converts since September, MSTR shares ran at a premium, money has been taken off the table????
So essentially Saylor has been selling volatility as opposed to a proxy for BTC. I think.
From about the 48th minute.
IPDA
Active Member
Look at the drop from March - April through intermarket analysis. It shows Microstrategy making higher highs, but Bitcoin making lower highs. When this happened it lead to a -20% decrease in the price of Bitcoin. I'd say they're fairly correlated assets. If what you're saying is true, would that not indicate that one of the largest buyers of Bitcoin is pulling out? Or at the very least taking profits as he believes the price has risen comfortably enough to sell.Boys over at Forward Guidance talking about MSTR's price. Mostly over my head (puts, calls, options etc etc) but what I think they're saying is that Saylor has been selling converts since September, MSTR shares ran at a premium, money has been taken off the table????
View attachment 92169
So essentially Saylor has been selling volatility as opposed to a proxy for BTC. I think.