Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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pmbug said:
I see a lot of people making that joke, but DOGE isn't actually going to be a real cabinet department. It's a limited life advisory commission with a specific, narrow mission.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency
Click to expand...

Gotta love advisors in government. :rolleyes: First job will be to decide which of its Directors should step down in order to improve efficiency. Lead from the front and all that. ;)

Jamie Dimon is also a fan of DOGE. But not BTC. No no no no no. Not a fan. :p

DOGE the crypto-currency (not DOGE the "Advisory Commission") is up about 100% since the election though it's still down nearly 50% from the all time highs.
 
Testing support levels on the daily, coz there's nothing between that and the next stop lower around the high 60's low 70's.

BTCUSD_2024-11-27_07-29-39.png
 
Seems to have held, ideally we consolidate in this range for a little while, retest the same support levels in a couple of weeks, then strike higher for a nice little Xmas present.

BTCUSD_2024-11-28_06-58-55.png

Edit to add: my crystal ball path in purple has it crossing above 100K in the next couple of weeks, that's just me being inaccurate when I drew it. I don't think it will cross that until the end of the year. The important bit is that it retests the support zone and then breaks out or at least consolidates around the ATH.
 
I tidied it a little over the weekend in an attempt to be more accurate, hopefully a low by about Thursday (around 93K) then a rebound mid-next week (around 98K) then a more serious test (around 90) by mid-December which is about the 15th on that chart. Then a rebound to 100K before the New Year (Xmas Eve).

BTCUSD_2024-12-02_20-01-14.png
 
Maybe something like this could help signal a reversal on the weekly:

BTC.D_2024-12-04_20-25-09.png

Look for a breakout (circled green) from the previous high (green arrows). Not the highs with candlesticks with long upper wicks (black arrows) which indicate an unsustainable price level. These breakouts appear to have been followed by an initial increase in BTC dominance (BTC.D) ie BTC p* v ALT p, as well as an increase in the price of BTC itself. Where BTC p has fallen following a breakout in BTC.D eg 1/5/24 and 2/9/24, BTC.D has still climbed which indicates that ALT p has fallen more sharply.

* where "p" = price
 
It's not an exact science as there'll be cycles within cycles, but the objective is to swap out of Alts when BTC.D could rise as opposed to it falling. So going forward we could be looking for something like this...

BTC.D_2024-12-04_21-14-19.png
 
precious roar said:
Planning to flip what little alt coin exposure I have to btc. Do you have an opinion on how long this current alt surge will last?
Click to expand...

I am not sure if you call this surge?
If you planning to Swap? or sell? I am currently buying waiting to buy more. But which one?
The precise timing must be right. This still can go either way until January 2025.
I won't swap for BTC , they are never any better than Alt coins.
Certain alt is as good as BTC
All coins now have done at least x 2 or x 5 ,
 
Enjoying the conversation.
IMO,to get a clearer picture with comparing BTC Dominance to the Alt Coins, if you take out of the Alt Coin equation, Stable Coins and Eth and include Volume Bars in the bottom of the chart, I think it would show a more subdued chart for the Altcoin season so far.
To me, this cycle hasn't really shown the Alt Coin Frenzy that we witnessed last cycle even though different sectors are starting to pop.
My question is, "Has retail really jumped into the Alt Coins yet?"
We have seen some of the older legacy coins make a move like Cardano, Link and several others.

What are your thoughts?
 
Yeah, that is what I have been wondering.
Perhaps retail has been sitting on the sidelines, or in stablecoins expecting a major correction
from BTC before they start to re-enter. I do think with the Spot ETFs entry earlier on in the cycle has changed the dynamics
of the market where BTC has run up fairly hard.
 
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