Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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Thanks @markcoinoz .

Interestingly, and this won't be a popular view on this forum, but most of those issues don't feature on my "horizon of concern".

I think the issue of stablecoins (CDCs?) is overblown. I don't think Western governments want to control every facet of our lives nor have the capacity to. The "petro-dollar" is not a binding contract, it's just a solution to the excessive build-up of foreign currency when the value of exports denominated in USD held by a nation exceeds the value of imports denominated in USD. Changes we've witnessed in the sale of oil in exchange for USD reflect operational matters related to credit risk, but it's not going to go away. And the valid concerns around migration levels is an outcome of governments seeking to create growth in the absence of other traditional promoters of growth ie demographic change, technological development and the increase in the availability of credit. And I can't see how BTC can be taken over by governments.

My concerns are, and not in any particular order, the impact of migration on living standards, the re-emergence of megalomaniac leaders around the world, the increasingly polarised political environment in many Western nations, dumb politicians who don't understand how our fiat system operates and the impact of climatic changes on our health and society. None of which BTC can provide any solution to. It's just handy to have, much like a second passport or shares that pay a nice return. or a highly liquid form of gold or RE.
 
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Riddle me this; if BTC is such a solid alternative to fiat, why is it clubbed like a baby seal every time the stock market tanks?
 
Been saying this thing will crash for awhile, commercials were distributing when the previous long-term high was taken - lotssssss of buy orders above that high ;)
 
Did also find it interesting how ETH did NOT have enough juice in the tank to take its longer term high, insinuating that the run on Bitcoin was simply just a stop hunt before legging lower.
 
IPDA said:
Been saying this thing will crash for awhile, commercials were distributing when the previous long-term high was taken - lotssssss of buy orders above that high ;)
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Yes you had, I didn't know whether you were referring to a short or a medium term correction though.

My view remains bullish in the long term (next 12 - 18 months) eg as accumulation by those referred to as "permanent holder addresses" has surged again in the past 30 days or indicators such as the "pi-cycle top" have not tapped market cycle highs, amongst other indicators such as those attempting to identify whether the market value of BTC is in a euphoric state when compared to realised value. At the moment it's suggesting that BTC is far closer to an "oversold" cycle than an "overbought" one.
 
I'm basically saying that the recent correction had more to do with fears around the direction of future rate movements rather than specific market peculiarities with BTC, as evidenced by the sell-off in most asset classes. ;)
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Yes you had, I didn't know whether you were referring to a short or a medium term correction though.

My view remains bullish in the long term (next 12 - 18 months) eg as accumulation by those referred to as "permanent holder addresses" has surged again in the past 30 days or indicators such as the "pi-cycle top" have not tapped market cycle highs, amongst other indicators such as those attempting to identify whether the market value of BTC is in a euphoric state when compared to realised value. At the moment it's suggesting that BTC is far closer to an "oversold" cycle than an "overbought" one.
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IMO given how commercials sold into that longer term high, I would anticipate market price seeking inefficiences well below current price. Price is like painting, when brushing what comes up must come down to make sure everything is intact. Having said this, I think longer term Bitcoin is poised for 29 - 30k - possibly even lower if things really accelerate with indicies crashing too.
 
FOMC don't meet until early September, about 6 weeks away (which is the same length of time a hastily entered SEA holiday relationship lasts, plenty long time!) so financial markets that have been easily spooked/spurred by soft news will have to wait until then to get a clear indicator of the direction JPow is intending to go.

Expectations of a significant rate cut have really taken off in the past week:

Screenshot 2024-08-08 at 9.07.42 am.png
 
mmm....shiney! said:
So a market wide crash across all asset classes?
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I have a model for market crashes, right now it ticks all the boxes. Whether or not it actually eventuates I obviously haven't been on this Earth long enough to test (I'm 21 lol), but so far things look promising toward that direction. Safest assets right now would be the CHF & Yen, and gold - but gold could be seeing some draw down until it shakes retail holders out. I'll be buying heavily into the next run on sell side liquidity for gold.

I've scavanged the internet and found some reliable sources say how commercials are ALWAYS long-term net long on gold, but there will be intermediate times where they shake the tree to remove retail holders and make money on them.
 
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