Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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@markcoinoz normally posts these updates but he hasn't been seen since the beginning of January, I hope all is well with him. There's a few members just beginning their crypto journey who may draw some valuable insight from this video, it's also valuable to more seasoned players in the market I reckon.

 
Yes, I am fine. Happy Belated New Year:D
I accidentally logged out and couldn't Log back in.
Forgot where my Password was for SilverStackers.
Anyway all good and thanks for posting Bob Loukas take on the 4 year cycle.
 
Cryptos woke up this morning (morning for me in the USA anyway). BTC back to $72k. Alts all trending up.
 
I don't know, if most people are expecting a pullback then I guess it will pull back, if not then it won't.

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Not very helpful hey?
 
I'm going to hazard a guess that any boost in prices that the halving may have provided in the near term will be overshadowed by declines brought on by the current macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
We're still past previous all time high. The question is where the top is post halving
Click to expand...

Prior to the events of the past couple of weeks I would have said some time in late Q3 early Q4 of 2024, sort of along the lines of a left bias that Loukas discusses in his video above. Depending on what happens the peak may now be delayed.
 
So, assuming the market will rise and peak at some point in the future, using the run up to the highs of 2021 it could look like either this:

BTCUSD_2024-04-17_09-12-26.png

... or maybe like this:

BTCUSD_2024-04-17_09-12-59.png

... or if we use the current bull run this:

BTCUSD_2024-04-17_09-18-23.png

Take your pick, and of course it could be even higher briefly. :p

One thing though is if we adopt Bob Loukas's thinking that the next ATH followed by the blow-off stage is closer than the next bear market low, it means in each chart above the further out the high is then the next low is say 2 thirds further out, so meaning either 2 years from now, 4 years from now, or 6 years from now.

Which then gives us some time to pile our profits into something else I have in mind that can boost our returns even more as we await the start of the next bull run.
 
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Having a think about those 3 charts, I've calculated that the current price has slipped back in to a buy zone based on the possibility it can get to those highs. That doesn't mean it can't go lower but looking for a correction upward. Buy zone based on the methodology I used will be breached above $68K.
 
So, we have approximately 300 Blocks before the halving 840,000 which is just over 2 days away.

Below is what PlanB has said.
IMO this bitcoin halving will NOT be different:
- All bitcoin price increase will again be around the halving
- Buying 6m before the halving and selling 18m after the halving (green line) will outperform buy&hold
- BTC > $100k in 2024
- BTC top > $300k in 2025
GLXpLOPWcAAH-7g

GLXs5qqXoAA3sD5


Looking at the S2F Model it is pretty clear where we are heading. The next Dot will be Red after the Halving.
PlanB makes the point:
Nothing will happen in 2 days.
We already had a nice little price increase from $34k (Oct 2023 close, 6 months before the halving) to $62k now, almost 2x.
IMO we will have another 2x in the 6-10 months after the halving.
Then another 2x-4x face melting fomo top.

Your last chart Shiney appears to fit in fairly well with PlanB's prediction Models.
 
markcoinoz said:
Below is what PlanB has said.
IMO this bitcoin halving will NOT be different
Click to expand...

An email dropped into my inbox today from a couple of blokes I've obviously subscribed to, it was a link to a video they did about how this time is different. And I can't find it now. o_O

I did a quick google search and it seems there's a stack of videos out there from "experts" giving their take on how this halving is different. So maybe it wasn't worth listening to anyway? Or maybe it was?

From an economic perspective my position is that the halving creates greater scarcity. Greater scarcity in the face of continuing or increasing demand drives up prices, which is at a very basic level the argument that the bulls are advancing in regards to this event.

On the other hand, which is also grounded in economics, is if it the cost of production exceeds the ROI because either input costs exceed the capacity of the producers or the end cost of the product exceeds the capacity of consumers to consume, then producers will reduce their level of production or divert investment into other ventures. Now I'm not all over the technical aspects of how miners are rewarded for auditing the blockchain, but I do understand that costs such as electricity are rising and that more computational effort will be required in order to process and verify transactions once the halving is complete and that there will be a subsequent reduction in returns in the form of rewards for the same input.

So we're looking at a situation where more resources are required in order to maintain a similar ROI as it now stands, which is not ideal. However the stock of BTC available will be impacted by the flow, and in this case, a decline in the inflow. The kicker is demand though. Whether that is institutional or retail I don't know but either is what could drive greater profits for miners or push them into an environment that is unsustainable if the demand doesn't materialise. As far as the market goes it's vastly different to previous halving episodes, institutional demand is legitimised yet retail demand is dull when compare to previous bull markets. What difference will that make? I don't know.

In summary, so while the halving will have an impact, it's the response in demand that will determine whether prices continue to climb, stabilise or fall. The halving may be a catalyst, but it's one that may react in the current environment in a different manner to previous environments.

Polar.bear.Stacker said:
I remember Plan B's prediction last cycle and he was way off.
Click to expand...

Well that doesn't bode well for my charts then. :p;)
 
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From memory the issue was plan B has no credentials around statistics or econometrics, his models were solely based around stock to flow more or less as a single variable predictive regression. I think there was a few articles by statisticians that debunked his 'analysis'.

In regards to the other points, hash rate has continued to rise. I think historically any decrease in production from the halving has usually affected price and not the viability of the miners which would be seen in a dropping or flat line hash rate. The hard forks of Bitcoin do experience this I believe. I suspect this time will be no different and prices will continue to rise. I also expect that as the price rises, bigger players in terms of investors will see it as investable.
 
Thanks mate, hash rate is one of the technical aspects Ive never devoted any time, or just maybe I'm lacking the capacity, to understand.

I do understand that from a treasury or institutional perspective, assets have to have substantial monetary value (or maybe it's more accurate to talk about market cap) to be considered as something to add to a portfolio.
 
I am not Chat GPT pmbug.:D
Firstly, it is common knowledge that if you buy BTC 6mths before the halving and sell 12-18mths after the halving,
it is a better strategy than buying BTC and just holding (HODL) throughout the cycle.
From my stand point, I would layer out way before the 18mth and convert into Stablecoins.

As for PlanB, he has a Law Degree and Qualitative Economics. He was also an Institutional Investor applying Valuation Models
with Commodities, Gold and Silver.
Here is a link with an interview by Natalie Brunell 2years ago.


I am not saying his Models are perfect. As with all Models, they can be useful.

Just to give you some perspective.
I first heard about BTC on Hotcopper around 2011-2012.
It was around $60 at the time. I bought some about 2012-2013.
Back then living in Australia, the only way to convert fiat to BTC was either Peer to Peer, through Coinjar or an untrusted exchange with some guy operating out of a garage, or one of the international exchanges like MtGox.
At the time Coinjar wasn't even an exchange. That came later. It really was crazy back then. Unfortunately for me I moved most of my BTC, Dodge, LTC to a Chinese exchange. The Chinese government decided to
shutdown all exchanges and demanded that overseas investors provided Passports, Driver's Licence and other KYC. I never got my Crypto back. Max Keiser introduced his own coin in which I bought some later in 2014.
QuarkCoin, the next big thing. LOL!! Still waiting Max. After that, I got out of crypto and didn't get back into it until 2020 when I discovered I still had a Coinjar account from one of my old laptops with a small amount of BTC in it.
Transferred it and then closed the account down. There head office is now in London. It is rather funny. Back in 2012 I was invited to a BTC meetup at a Richmond pub in Swan Street. Wish I had of gone. Thems the breaks. I have spent the
last couple of years trying to convince my brother to hedge his bets and buy some BTC. He lives in Thailand and says he has Gold in his safe as a safety net. He won't change and I have given up trying to convince him to at least have a small
amount. BTC is not about making you wealthy. It is about learning to become your own bank, follow your own destiny without government interference and not being taxed into the oblivion.
Bottom line.
I don't like people telling me what to do,say or think.
That's my rant for the month:D
 
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