Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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Gary Gensler said:
Statement on the Approval of Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products

Today, the Commission approved the listing and trading of a number of spot bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) shares.
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https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023

Price was hovering around USD45.5K at the time of the announcement.

I find this comment amusing:

Gensler said:
(BTC is) also used for illicit activity including ransomware,[4] money laundering,[5] sanction evasion,[6] and terrorist financing.[7]
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In contrast to government issued fiat...
 
btc etf approved gents

GDhF3wHWsAAnEKo
 
Grayscale, the manager of GBTC, is claiming bragging rights for being the first of the newly approved crop of spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to begin trading, a representative for the firm said on Thursday.

“I am happy to confirm that GBTC started pre-market trading at 4 am EST this morning,” Grayscale’s head of comms Jennifer Rosenthal said via email.
...
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https://www.coindesk.com/markets/20...eferral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

Now that the spot BTC ETFs have been approved, anticipation is building that the spot ETH ETFs are going to be approved. Ethereum up over 10% in the last 24 hours.
 
I think speculation is unwarranted while there remains some doubt over the status of ETH as a security. That issue probably needs to be sorted firstly.
 
Worthwhile keeping an eye on, early days yet, that's if the times haven't changed. Peak BTC.D in Dec 2020 saw BTC rise another 27% to ATH while ETH rose 134%. Not saying it will be ETH, but look torward the alts. Play it like the GSR.

Cycle took 12 months though the first option in hindsight played out over a 5 month period.


BTC.D_2024-02-18_09-06-15.png
 
mmm....shiney! said:
What happened with the price action last time?
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There is usually a lot of BTC selling in the lead up to the halving with a corresponding price dip as miners sell on hand inventory to raise operating cash. Then the halving occurs and miners produce half the supply they were previously making, so there is less new supply available and price starts going up if demand at least stays steady.

This time might be different however because of the spot ETFs opening a channel for institutional inflows. There is a lot more buying happening now (pre-halving) than in previous cycles. There may still be a dip, but if the ETF inflows stay strong, the dip is likely not going to be as deep as previous cycles.

Also of note - I saw a tweet some days/weeks ago claiming that something like 70% of all Bitcoin is stored in "strong hand" wallets (ie. not traded/moved in over a year). Demand is growing while available, tradeable supply is shrinking.

Bitcoin is the 800lb gorilla that lifts (or sinks) all boats, but Ethereum also has a few things happening that might provide some independence from BTC trading:

March 13 - Dencun upgrade
May 23 - spot ETH ETF decision deadline for the SEC

AFAIK, Ethereum does not have a GBTC analogue in the ETF approval pool, so a May approval of the ETFs should be a much stronger lift than what BTC saw (because of GBTC selling).
 
Using history as a guide for price action is always fraught with danger as technology and circumstances change, but there is alot more action on the BTC protocol than during previous halvenings, this could be bullish.

This is the sort of thing I was looking for:

289b673e8fa066e827d6771bc60d44c4.png
 
Typically bullish after halving, but when will the market decide to act atypically?

Edit: Not necessarily immediately bullish after halving, when there may be an inevitable sell-off.
 
52K seems to be the resistance level on the weekly. Strong support at about 42K. So if there is a sell off I'd expect it to be somewhere in that range, though the effect of the halvening appears to be less pronounced either way as time marches on.

Edit to add: at this stage the trend is likely to continue though the RSI is indicating it's overbought but it's been there since Oct 2023.

BTCUSD_2024-02-19_08-06-00.png
 
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