Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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I'm pretty sure I remember reading some advanced warning from them a while ago, maybe not, I don't use them so I just forgot about it:

Dear Zipmex customer!

Due to a combination of circumstances beyond our control including volatile market conditions, a series of black swan events in the industry, and the resulting financial difficulties of our key business partners we have considered that in order to maintain the integrity of our platform, we would be pausing withdrawals until further notice. We apologize and appreciate your patience in the meantime.
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Prompted me to withdraw some stuff that had just come out of being locked up earning interest on Nexo.
 
so elon isnt diamond handing btc? what a surprise.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/tes...in-purchases-to-fiat-currency-in-q2-2022.html

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mmm....shiney! said:
Probably not. Tell me what is any different to 6 months ago?
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Weren't there some key levels there at 19-20 k? Then it started playing sideways with a few humps, which from the distance might looks like a double-bottom or triple bottom. Illusion. It will keep falling. And I think it's around 10 k where the tide MIGHT turn. Can't see why it would hesitate anywhere in between...
 
TreasureHunter said:
Weren't there some key levels there at 19-20 k? Then it started playing sideways with a few humps, which from the distance might looks like a double-bottom or triple bottom. Illusion. It will keep falling. And I think it's around 10 k where the tide MIGHT turn. Can't see why it would hesitate anywhere in between...
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Weren't you asking whether the correction was over?
 
There's a chance looking at the Elliott Wave pattern that we could see 4 figure (or even 3!) Bitcoin at the end of the move just starting. After bottoming I would expect a move back to at least $140,000.

Seeing as though my time machine is out of action whilst I wait for the semiconductor supply chain issues to resolve, I'm unable to travel back in time to buy for fractions of a cent, so I'll have to use this 'almost' buy of the century opportunity.

The danger will be at this 'blood in the streets' moment avoiding getting caught out by crypto companies locking down withdrawals or going bust.
 
About 2/3 of these bear market rallies go up 10 percent so we will see. Could be a little gain there of you have the steel balls for it.
Or Jerome could sneeze and it could be gone like that.
 
Perhaps Solana and Cardano could be the next Ethereums in the next bull market. Plus, they are stake-able.

Could it be a good strategy to buy these two low, stake, stake, stake. Thus, compound interest, then move into ETH/BTC/stable coins later on?

Just curious if anyone ever thought about this.
 
TreasureHunter said:
Perhaps Solana and Cardano could be the next Ethereums in the next bull market. Plus, they are stake-able.

Could it be a good strategy to buy these two low, stake, stake, stake. Thus, compound interest, then move into ETH/BTC/stable coins later on?

Just curious if anyone ever thought about this.
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I have thought about this, but was actually thinking in a crypto bear market, BTC might hold up better than alts.

Should the strategy be hold BTC or cash in the bear market, swap to alts over time as the bull market picks up, then take profits in the parabolic rally at the end of the bull run?
 
i would be buying all the l1 chains like solana, dot and avax, along with rolloups like optimism, matic and bnb.
 
neonuke said:
I have thought about this, but was actually thinking in a crypto bear market, BTC might hold up better than alts.

Should the strategy be hold BTC or cash in the bear market, swap to alts over time as the bull market picks up, then take profits in the parabolic rally at the end of the bull run?
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The idea is to focus on several alt coins (which are are more volatile than BTC), which have more "promising" infrastructure and have already proven SOME uptrend potential.
Solana and Cardano would be some of them. Bit Torrent, Stellar and perhaps another few could be added as secondary options.

If the market picks up (might take 1-5...10 years to reach a "decent high"), then swap the alt coins for ETH, BTC or a stable coin.
 
dozerz said:
i would be buying all the l1 chains like solana, dot and avax, along with rolloups like optimism, matic and bnb.
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What is you take on Polygon/Matic? I just bumped into it some time ago, while exploring Solana's downtime flaws (DDOS attacks), security issues.

The price chart looks scary. Still not like Solana's collapse, but very volatile.
 
Latest from out of Glassnode for BTC, analysing on-chain metrics to determine whether we could be in a bear market rally or the beginning of a bull run:
  • With exception of a few activity spikes higher during major capitulation events, the current network activity suggests that there remains little influx of new demand as yet. (bearish)
  • After the initial wash-out in and demand destruction May 2021 , transactional demand has traded sideways to slightly lower, indicative that only the stable base of higher conviction traders and investors remain. (bearish)
  • As a result of lacklustre transaction demand, on-chain transaction fees are firmly within bear market territory , seeing only 13.4 BTC in total fees paid per day. (bearish)
  • the Bitcoin network remains HODLer dominated, and as yet, there has not been any noteworthy return of new demand, as viewed through the lens of on-chain activity. (bearish)
  • the capacity in Bitcoin Lightning Network (LN) public channels continues to print new all-time-highs. (bullish)
And ETH:
  • (based on gas prices) This signals that despite recent positive price action, there has not been an influx of new usage, and overall, the Ethereum is at a multi-year low in relative activity. (bearish)
  • the ETH burn rate via EIP1559 is now at an all time low. (bearish)
They also analyse spent output profit ratio (SOPR) and find:
  • For Bitcoin, SOPR is attempting to break above 1.0 for the second time since early June. Usually, the market requires a number of attempts before escape velocity can be reached. An ideal bullish scenario would be a break above 1.0, and then a retest, finding support.
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  • Ethereum has had more luck, piercing above a SOPR value of 1.0, and finding its first retest as support. However, given the somewhat lacklustre on-chain activity metrics explored above, it is prudent to watch for a reversal back below 1.0, which could signal weakness. This would resemble previous bearish periods where a brief excursion above 1.0 can be observed, before rejecting back into net loss territory.
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https://insights.glassnode.com/the-...22&utm_medium=woc_newsletter&utm_source=email
 
^
Yep and the overall volumes seem to be rather low. The overall market sentiment (as per news, as per top crypto YouTubers...) is BEARISH.

It might take a few years until it crawls back up again.

If you can pick the best (promising alts) if/when BTC reaches 11 k, then they can generate a a lot more than if you bought BTC even in the first phase of the next bull market.
Until Bitcoin went down 2-3x its peak, some alts went down 5-10x lower their own peaks during the same period (silver analogy: grab the volatiles as low as possible and ride the waves up).

It is risky though, because some alts are stepping on each other's neck: Cardano wants to take on Ethereum, but Solana stepped on top of Cardano and scored much higher peaks, RavenCoin creators even affirm that they too want to take on Ethereum... and the chain goes on. I think some alts will simply cannibalize each other. Some of them will simply go down the bucket (technical-, security flaws and lacks etc.).
 
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