Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?


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If anyone uses MEW, then stay away for the time being

Several reports that Google's DNS has been hacked by russians and anyone logging into MEW has had their accounts hacked

Ledger/MEW seems to be fine, but those who use JSON/PrivKey etc have been reamed
 
Looks like the April rally was a fake recovery. Chart doesn't look good, looks like there is a long way to fall.

From my observation the general public has forgotten all about cryptos, so no new money entering.
 
Looks like the April rally was a fake recovery. Chart doesn't look good, looks like there is a long way to fall.

From my observation the general public has forgotten all about cryptos, so no new money entering.

yeah looking real bad, not even sure what a pennant means in ta :)

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how is all that bitcoin cash working out? glad they have those big empty blocks.
 
how is all that bitcoin cash working out? glad they have those big empty blocks.

It's been one of the best performing main cryptos recently, but i no longer have Bitcoin Cash. Now Bitcoin fees are back to normal there is no real need for it. Plus i now favour Litecoin due to shorter confirm times.
 
There is still an abundance of speculation / froth / irrationality in the market.

They're the same ingredients that contributed to the recent bull market so I would argue that their presence is neither indicative of a bear nor a bull market.

Regulation is the catchphrase of 2018. The news of regulation drives the FUD, in the meantime apparently there's product releases, institutional money and VC's waiting to enter if you believe the experts, which conversely drives the FOMO. Until the regulation FUD has been settled the speculation/froth/irrationality of the market will play second fiddle in the bull/bear tussle in 2018.
 
Not bubble related, but I think there's been some tax discussion in this thread previously and I didn't want to start a new thread solely to discuss tax, but I just read this



Finally, investors who first got into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies towards the end of last year could be in for a rude shock. “The ATO is really looking at that as a big risk area, because it’s new and people don’t understand the tax implications,” he said.

“Probably the most common scenario is people will have capital gains tax implications through buying cryptocurrency and then selling. That could produce a very large profit or very large loss depending on when they did.”
Liz Russell, senior tax agent with Etax.com.au, said while cryptocurrencies were often touted as an anonymous payment system that can’t be tracked by banks or governments, the ATO’s data matching kicked in as soon as they were converted to fiat currency.

“It’s important to know how the ATO classifies cryptocurrency, as this determines how it’s treated for taxation purposes,” she said.

“There is a long-running debate over what cryptocurrency actually is — whether it’s an asset, currency or collectable — but the ATO has made it clear that it treats cryptocurrency as an asset. That means it’s subject to the same capital gains tax provisions that apply to real estate and shares.”

Capital gains tax provisions are triggered when you sell cryptocurrency, in whole or in part. “Let’s say you originally bought $5000 worth of XEM, which is one of the lesser-known coins consistently in the top 10 of cryptocurrency market caps,” Ms Russell said.

“If you later traded it for fiat currency of $8500, then the $3500 in profit is considered a capital gain, and you’ll need to add it to your assessable income for the financial year — much like you would any gains you make the sale of shares or an investment property.”

On the other hand, if you sold your cryptocurrency at a loss — which is more likely given the market crash since its December peak — then you can deduct that amount from capital gains you made from another asset.

“For example if you made a $3000 loss on the sale of cryptocurrency but a $4000 gain on the sale of shares, your net capital gain would be the $4000 gain minus the $3000 loss, equalling a $1000 capital gain,” she said.

One exception is when you use cryptocurrency to purchase items for personal use — such as in the ‘digital currency-friendly’ Queensland tourist town of Agnes Water, where visitors can use cryptocurrency at restaurants, cafes and other stores.

“For these sorts of transactions, no CGT is payable when disposing of cryptocurrency,” Ms Russell said.

For businesses who receive cryptocurrency for goods and services, you must include the value of the cryptocurrency in Australian dollars as part of your ordinary income, the same as receiving any other non-cash payment under a barter transaction.

“One way of determining the value in Australian dollars is the fair market value which can be obtained from a reputable cryptocurrency exchange,”

“Where you purchase business items using cryptocurrency, including trading stock, you are entitled to a deduction based on the arm’s length value of the item acquired.”
 
I've been sitting on the sidelines for quite some time now just waiting to top up. Glad I haven't done so yet because I've been close several times recently but haven't pulled the trigger

I'll definitely be doing so, just going to ride it out longer first

I'm loving this current state to be honest, so many bargains to be had. We're going to pump, it's just a matter of when not if, and I believe our strong hands will be rewarded and whenever that does happen I'll be taking the lessons I learnt from December and making sure I bank some serious profit
 
i would say the prices now are more rational. If market cap drops back under $200 billion, then i would consider that bargain prices.

Market participation in cryptos are still very low and that makes me think prices still have further to drop. I still think some cryptos will have a strong use case in the future, but not now.
 
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