Yep, data was expected to be revised quite significantly:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/non...sed-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/non...sed-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html
Midnight to 6am - Overnight Spot Watchers Spot...
- Thread starter Turk
- Start date
Found an ol' rum bottle while doin' me rounds wif' a chart in't...
(fancy that, one dat wasn't empty...)
Captain like'd em tall, and lonnggg (tru to de likeness da legs of da figurehead on the bow he do say...)
But alas, seems 'twaz cut short at the knees.. (ya don't say.... yet also true to the likeness of the legs of 'is enemies.
)
Perhaps if I can bulge my odder eye and find ye-old drawing board i might be able to fillz in the rest of it.
The waves be blowing and black friday be on de horizon. Man da sailz!
May have to commandeer the galleys dining room table, and perhapz a pack of crayons... for de task...
(Warning = 31340px x 2525px daily 20c bars since 1980 - Prints onto 17xA4 pages in high res!)
(fancy that, one dat wasn't empty...)
Captain like'd em tall, and lonnggg (tru to de likeness da legs of da figurehead on the bow he do say...)
But alas, seems 'twaz cut short at the knees.. (ya don't say.... yet also true to the likeness of the legs of 'is enemies.
)Perhaps if I can bulge my odder eye and find ye-old drawing board i might be able to fillz in the rest of it.
The waves be blowing and black friday be on de horizon. Man da sailz!
May have to commandeer the galleys dining room table, and perhapz a pack of crayons... for de task...
(Warning = 31340px x 2525px daily 20c bars since 1980 - Prints onto 17xA4 pages in high res!)
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Great time to buy! Stopping at the LCS today whoohoo! Go Drumph! The new stackers hero!
precious roar
Active Member
I'd say they will drop quite a bit more in the short term.
As much as I would like to say I know.
I dont... but...
Unless the commodities market is going to go into a bear market entirely on US President Trumps election, and subsequennt "expectations" of future reality, being "predictable"... and there'fore the path is laid...
Then I'd suggest the opposite.
I don't think Trump is setting out to be predictable as much as he is setting some intentions he intends to follow through with to back his word.
One of those is a return to the things that: "to make America great again".
To do that, hes going to need to:
- Empower Americas finance and that involves combatting inflation, setting interest rates at suitable levels for affordable US citizen finance (relates to inflation).
- Ensure US dollar reserve currency "meaning" (not just status) {i.e: what does it mean to be a reserve currency, if the nature of floated exchange rates is a relational "model"}
- Enforce the tarifs and controls nessissary for their country to dominate that economic battleground. (i have no doubt that he is serious about enforcing their "financial-borders")
In the past, the US has very carefully and deliberately interfered in metals (gold/silver) due to the threat of debasement of the floating fiat model, for the benefit of themselves (as the reserve currency) and the model which other countries have followed for ~60 years. I would not consider this monetary battle pointless now that crypto has entered the picture. however...
The "minting" of new bitcoin is not a threat (due to its cap), the growth of a variety of alternatives however is not limited. and neither is it's relative value.
the increase of bitcoins relative value then, increases base money supply. and its now at a level that parabolic growth can cause the following problem:
what IF: 1 bitcoin were suddenly worth MORE, than any ATM or other bank count dispense or transfer?
such that: people came to large transitions like those for houses... and stopped transferring into currencies before trading it for the assets?
think NOT about the tax implications of that... but how M1 M2 and M3 money supply would become completely unhinged from any "monetary policy" or responsibilities where we HAVE elected governments and financial institutions that have for DECADES/CENTURIES been maintaining nations based on careful honing of their currencies and their economic statistics...
Since that is now at a level that it CAN threaten nation states, and consumes the energy equivalent OF nations...
then I would consider it wise for those that we vote to have the power to make decisions that benefit democratic equality and preservation of value of hard work, to preserve the value of their currencies for which their nations people are paid. (not saying bitcoin doesn't have a place, but I believe that anyone who thinks that since ive worked all my life and not bought bitcoin that they're somehow entitled to my house, land and food, without having worked for the same society I have, and thats a globally connected society; are DEAD wrong.)
Compare to the effects of his last term in office.
Across a few different variables.
Increase in M0 money (yeah i know its ECB data...). VERY quickly was reflected in Bitcoin growth... excessively so.
As did global inflation... but what lagged?
Silver lagged, (gold also lagged)
As far as leading indicators go, and as far as stable movements go currencies relative value drop compared to Gold and silver, is more in line with CPI.
im expecting that the lagging nature of gold and silver is due to slow and stable growth that part of policy and tracking as part of the underpinning reserves.
if theirs going to be an problem with financial institution in the face of a rise in crypto where theirs a problem with "unbacked nature" of currencies...
then banks are able to increase the value of their underpinning assets, by simply valuing them higher. *(i.e the assets with which they have control, other than the currencies with which are floated...)
the same way as back and forth crypto trading is done to the greater fool... except gold is actually solid money as proven historically. and compared to its historic worth, the world has handled it at far greater cost to acquire that it is today.
It could be the RUM talking...
But i dunno man, makes enough sence to doubt it, and double check a few times...
I dont... but...
Unless the commodities market is going to go into a bear market entirely on US President Trumps election, and subsequennt "expectations" of future reality, being "predictable"... and there'fore the path is laid...
Then I'd suggest the opposite.
I don't think Trump is setting out to be predictable as much as he is setting some intentions he intends to follow through with to back his word.
One of those is a return to the things that: "to make America great again".
To do that, hes going to need to:
- Empower Americas finance and that involves combatting inflation, setting interest rates at suitable levels for affordable US citizen finance (relates to inflation).
- Ensure US dollar reserve currency "meaning" (not just status) {i.e: what does it mean to be a reserve currency, if the nature of floated exchange rates is a relational "model"}
- Enforce the tarifs and controls nessissary for their country to dominate that economic battleground. (i have no doubt that he is serious about enforcing their "financial-borders")
In the past, the US has very carefully and deliberately interfered in metals (gold/silver) due to the threat of debasement of the floating fiat model, for the benefit of themselves (as the reserve currency) and the model which other countries have followed for ~60 years. I would not consider this monetary battle pointless now that crypto has entered the picture. however...
The "minting" of new bitcoin is not a threat (due to its cap), the growth of a variety of alternatives however is not limited. and neither is it's relative value.
the increase of bitcoins relative value then, increases base money supply. and its now at a level that parabolic growth can cause the following problem:
what IF: 1 bitcoin were suddenly worth MORE, than any ATM or other bank count dispense or transfer?
such that: people came to large transitions like those for houses... and stopped transferring into currencies before trading it for the assets?
think NOT about the tax implications of that... but how M1 M2 and M3 money supply would become completely unhinged from any "monetary policy" or responsibilities where we HAVE elected governments and financial institutions that have for DECADES/CENTURIES been maintaining nations based on careful honing of their currencies and their economic statistics...
Since that is now at a level that it CAN threaten nation states, and consumes the energy equivalent OF nations...
then I would consider it wise for those that we vote to have the power to make decisions that benefit democratic equality and preservation of value of hard work, to preserve the value of their currencies for which their nations people are paid. (not saying bitcoin doesn't have a place, but I believe that anyone who thinks that since ive worked all my life and not bought bitcoin that they're somehow entitled to my house, land and food, without having worked for the same society I have, and thats a globally connected society; are DEAD wrong.)
Compare to the effects of his last term in office.
Across a few different variables.
Increase in M0 money (yeah i know its ECB data...). VERY quickly was reflected in Bitcoin growth... excessively so.
As did global inflation... but what lagged?
Silver lagged, (gold also lagged)
As far as leading indicators go, and as far as stable movements go currencies relative value drop compared to Gold and silver, is more in line with CPI.
im expecting that the lagging nature of gold and silver is due to slow and stable growth that part of policy and tracking as part of the underpinning reserves.
if theirs going to be an problem with financial institution in the face of a rise in crypto where theirs a problem with "unbacked nature" of currencies...
then banks are able to increase the value of their underpinning assets, by simply valuing them higher. *(i.e the assets with which they have control, other than the currencies with which are floated...)
the same way as back and forth crypto trading is done to the greater fool... except gold is actually solid money as proven historically. and compared to its historic worth, the world has handled it at far greater cost to acquire that it is today.
It could be the RUM talking...
But i dunno man, makes enough sence to doubt it, and double check a few times...
Attachments
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Thanks @Azure, a bit to ponder there.
I'll start with a couple of points:
It just means that it is a currency held as a reserve by central banks around the world either as a hedge against their own domestic currency fluctuations or in the case of the Saudis or China etc surplus funds (excess reserves) as a result of trade/financial transactions with other countries (mainly the US).
There are about 8 or so currencies held as reserves including the AUD.
It's the tax implications that keeps government issued fiat relevant. While individuals exchange value tax will be collected, regardless of whatever asset is exchanged. Therefore government issued currency will always remain in demand while tax obligations can only be payable in fiat.
I'll start with a couple of points:
It just means that it is a currency held as a reserve by central banks around the world either as a hedge against their own domestic currency fluctuations or in the case of the Saudis or China etc surplus funds (excess reserves) as a result of trade/financial transactions with other countries (mainly the US).
There are about 8 or so currencies held as reserves including the AUD.
It's the tax implications that keeps government issued fiat relevant. While individuals exchange value tax will be collected, regardless of whatever asset is exchanged. Therefore government issued currency will always remain in demand while tax obligations can only be payable in fiat.
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I am still cry thinking about how in 1997 Australia sold 167 Tonnes of gold at approx $450 oz AUD. They kept 80 tonne which is still held now.
We have not added to our gold reserve since
Australia would not have made it onto that chart even if we had kept it. Small fish in a big pond.
We have not added to our gold reserve since
Australia would not have made it onto that chart even if we had kept it. Small fish in a big pond.
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@Azure I'm going to jump around a bit in an attempt to build a case which dismisses your argument (if I've understood it correctly) and draw my points together at a later point.
This increase in money supply happens with all asset classes.
The nature of the monetary system means that mainstream assets will rise in value over time. As they rise in value they create more money in the system which results in higher valuations and the cycle just keeps repeating with the odd hiccup along the way. The market just grows and grows and grows, it's kind of self-perpetuating, unavoidable and largely welcome.
"Borrowed" from a crypto thread, BTC MC v other assets:
Gold's individual MC and the MC of some of the world's largest companies exceeds that of BTC. Total value of the US stock market alone is over USD55 trillion, total value of the Australian residential RE market is AUD11 trillion and the US sovereign bond market is USD25 trillion. There's some big numbers out there, big numbers don't necessarily equate to trouble from either inherent or extraneous factors. How debt is managed and the quality of the underlying assets are key inherent factors when it comes to financial stability.
I can understand that the inherent nature of the BTC market or even of the asset itself is of concern to some, this is where the strength of the extraneous factors of that asset's market come into play especially in relation to leveraging. How far the extent to which a collapse in the price of BTC triggers a crisis due to the leveraged position of traders would be largely determined by current regulatory standards and the actions of regulators should there be any hint that a crisis could become systemic rather than remain contained within the crypto market. See SVB, Signature, FTX, Credit Suisse etc by way of examples.
Therefore, I don't see any crash in the value of BTC triggering a systemic crisis in the financial sector. However what Trump will do with deregulation remains to be seen, but most nations are moving toward tighter regulations, which from a financial stability standpoint and investor security standpoint is a good thing.
This increase in money supply happens with all asset classes.
The nature of the monetary system means that mainstream assets will rise in value over time. As they rise in value they create more money in the system which results in higher valuations and the cycle just keeps repeating with the odd hiccup along the way. The market just grows and grows and grows, it's kind of self-perpetuating, unavoidable and largely welcome.
"Borrowed" from a crypto thread, BTC MC v other assets:
Gold's individual MC and the MC of some of the world's largest companies exceeds that of BTC. Total value of the US stock market alone is over USD55 trillion, total value of the Australian residential RE market is AUD11 trillion and the US sovereign bond market is USD25 trillion. There's some big numbers out there, big numbers don't necessarily equate to trouble from either inherent or extraneous factors. How debt is managed and the quality of the underlying assets are key inherent factors when it comes to financial stability.
I can understand that the inherent nature of the BTC market or even of the asset itself is of concern to some, this is where the strength of the extraneous factors of that asset's market come into play especially in relation to leveraging. How far the extent to which a collapse in the price of BTC triggers a crisis due to the leveraged position of traders would be largely determined by current regulatory standards and the actions of regulators should there be any hint that a crisis could become systemic rather than remain contained within the crypto market. See SVB, Signature, FTX, Credit Suisse etc by way of examples.
Therefore, I don't see any crash in the value of BTC triggering a systemic crisis in the financial sector. However what Trump will do with deregulation remains to be seen, but most nations are moving toward tighter regulations, which from a financial stability standpoint and investor security standpoint is a good thing.
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Another one 
BTC production is infinitely more energy efficient when measured in ROI compared to energy use in many legacy industries.
For example:
1 BTC = 50 days of average US household consumption to produce, while1 Oz gold = 31 days of average US household consumption. Based on 2023 production levels and current spot prices realised for both assets the return per daily unit of equivalent household energy consumed by BTC's annual production is $1800/daily unit, whereas the amount of energy consumed annually to produce gold returns just $84/daily unit.
BTC production is infinitely more energy efficient when measured in ROI compared to energy use in many legacy industries.
For example:
1 BTC = 50 days of average US household consumption to produce, while1 Oz gold = 31 days of average US household consumption. Based on 2023 production levels and current spot prices realised for both assets the return per daily unit of equivalent household energy consumed by BTC's annual production is $1800/daily unit, whereas the amount of energy consumed annually to produce gold returns just $84/daily unit.
Their some interesting things there:
1: Bitcoins market cap - Exceeding the market cap of silver in the graphic (didn't realize that just happened.)
Why I think that's relevant?
We as the human race have mined silver for 5000+ years, (and imo this is important as we have mined and gathered a great deal of other resources too... and bitcoin didn't exist.)
The accumulated value of this mining is implicated in mankinds scientific enlightenment, technological revolution (countless items of utility, sentiment as well as facilitating trade), and as we all know theirs utility in silver as an element, on par with that of Oil as a whole set of organic molecules.
Regarding energy consumption:
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-mining-statistics/
To be fair, when it started, there were less people burning cycles to generate that "block every ~10 minutes" but its design was to scale and increase complexity to balance the average time between block going onto the blockchain.
1 BTC = 50 days of average US household consumption to produce.
Try:
The amount of energy is approximately 6,400,000 kWh which when converted to Joules is: 23.04 gigajoules...
Compare that here for an equivalent energy value:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(energy)
is roughly 12.5 times greater than:
"Gravitational potential energy of the Twin Towers, combined, accumulated throughout their construction and released during the collapse of the complex."
and ~1/3 of the energy of:
Yield of the Little Boy atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in World War II.
Just like you can pan for gold in the gold rush days with little energy for 1oz.
Bitcoins earlier days were far less energy intensive.
I see this having reached a relative level of global consumption where ongoing "doubling" of a variety of its aspects, presents impacts to people lives that is not going to be considered acceptable.
Gold can be traded hand to hand with the energy of a slice of bread.
Bitcoin transactions are going to incur ongoing costs too.
"There are about 8 or so currencies held as reserves including the AUD." - That's good to understand, but I wonder why when I'm speaking with joe-sixpack, do I get "USD is the reserve currency" rants about everything being denominated in USD in international trade and as some kind of a "USD has more importance" as a measurement. Like everything has to be measured in imperial before it's traded, even if it's designed in metric... matter of perspective I guess.
1: Bitcoins market cap - Exceeding the market cap of silver in the graphic (didn't realize that just happened.)
Why I think that's relevant?
We as the human race have mined silver for 5000+ years, (and imo this is important as we have mined and gathered a great deal of other resources too... and bitcoin didn't exist.)
The accumulated value of this mining is implicated in mankinds scientific enlightenment, technological revolution (countless items of utility, sentiment as well as facilitating trade), and as we all know theirs utility in silver as an element, on par with that of Oil as a whole set of organic molecules.
Regarding energy consumption:
https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-mining-statistics/
To be fair, when it started, there were less people burning cycles to generate that "block every ~10 minutes" but its design was to scale and increase complexity to balance the average time between block going onto the blockchain.
1 BTC = 50 days of average US household consumption to produce.
Try:
The amount of energy is approximately 6,400,000 kWh which when converted to Joules is: 23.04 gigajoules...
Compare that here for an equivalent energy value:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(energy)
is roughly 12.5 times greater than:
"Gravitational potential energy of the Twin Towers, combined, accumulated throughout their construction and released during the collapse of the complex."
and ~1/3 of the energy of:
Yield of the Little Boy atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in World War II.
Just like you can pan for gold in the gold rush days with little energy for 1oz.
Bitcoins earlier days were far less energy intensive.
I see this having reached a relative level of global consumption where ongoing "doubling" of a variety of its aspects, presents impacts to people lives that is not going to be considered acceptable.
Gold can be traded hand to hand with the energy of a slice of bread.
Bitcoin transactions are going to incur ongoing costs too.
"There are about 8 or so currencies held as reserves including the AUD." - That's good to understand, but I wonder why when I'm speaking with joe-sixpack, do I get "USD is the reserve currency" rants about everything being denominated in USD in international trade and as some kind of a "USD has more importance" as a measurement. Like everything has to be measured in imperial before it's traded, even if it's designed in metric... matter of perspective I guess.
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I'll just touch on one point you raised before returning to my line of argument.
Maybe "Joe Six-pack" is confusing the idea of reserves with the use of the USD as the international standard unit of choice when conducting transactions internationally? They're two different concepts. One is what a nations' CB holds on its balance sheet , the other is just the unit of account that trades are measured and recorded with. They could use matchsticks or paperclips for all that it matters, they use USD though because we don't measure or exchange the value of goods in gold any more and shipping paperclips around the globe would be a PITA.
Maybe "Joe Six-pack" is confusing the idea of reserves with the use of the USD as the international standard unit of choice when conducting transactions internationally? They're two different concepts. One is what a nations' CB holds on its balance sheet , the other is just the unit of account that trades are measured and recorded with. They could use matchsticks or paperclips for all that it matters, they use USD though because we don't measure or exchange the value of goods in gold any more and shipping paperclips around the globe would be a PITA.
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Just like every other asset, whether it's property, shares or gold, holders of BTC have had to exchange something of value (whether it's physical labour, a technical/mental/physical skill or talent etc) in the first place order to accumulate BTC. I'm not sure how you could acquire BTC any other way (apart from the obvious like theft, extortion etc). That accumulation of BTC (or any asset) does not entitle any person to the property of another person though. Therefore any perceived threat to the contrary is not justifiable.
Yeah that's right.
All things being equal, using any particular reference consistently when trading helps to see the trends and change in the exchange rates over time.
and as far as the currencies goes, the relationship between one and another over time is enough to understand the value in the exchange itself (minus commissions or spreads)
USD could swing up or down without any impact to my value consideration; if AUD to NZD doesn't change, if im interested in going for a holiday in NZ and live in AUS, then I don't need to consider it 1 bit.
I try not to get involved in debates as I'm no expert, and find the logic of argument quickly turns to:
https://thethinkingshop.org/cdn/shop/products/FallaciesPoster_HighRes_1800x1800.jpg
https://thethinkingshop.org/cdn/shop/products/CognitiveBiases_HighRes_1800x1800.jpg
All things being equal, using any particular reference consistently when trading helps to see the trends and change in the exchange rates over time.
and as far as the currencies goes, the relationship between one and another over time is enough to understand the value in the exchange itself (minus commissions or spreads)
USD could swing up or down without any impact to my value consideration; if AUD to NZD doesn't change, if im interested in going for a holiday in NZ and live in AUS, then I don't need to consider it 1 bit.
I try not to get involved in debates as I'm no expert, and find the logic of argument quickly turns to:
https://thethinkingshop.org/cdn/shop/products/FallaciesPoster_HighRes_1800x1800.jpg
https://thethinkingshop.org/cdn/shop/products/CognitiveBiases_HighRes_1800x1800.jpg
pmbug
Well-Known Member
The world needs USD to buy oil. This is the result of the quid pro agreement between the USA and KSA circa (shortly after) 1971 when Bretton Woods killed the global gold standard. It's generally referred to as the petrodollar system. The trade flows that have developed since then have supported global trade (and central bank faith in holding as reserves) in US Treasuries.
@pmbug.
Thats is also what I'm after.
Its not like the prior commitment for USD being exchangeable for, and backed by GOLD at a 'Pegged' price.
But that it is exchangeable for Oil, and at the price set in the market. Backing the 'floating' oil price in the market...
I would view/consider that more of a commitment for the USA to accept international trade in return FOR USD, on the market, for those that received USD when they sold their OIL as an export.
and also that USD exchanged between countries OTHER than the US, is accepted, separate from an intermediary exchange for simply another currency, and that its use to buy oil assures its convertibility to something physical, guaranteed.
All well and good for Country A to accept USD for OIL.
But what good is that to anyone, if that country cannot purchase Americas goods and services with USD obtained from their OIL trade; or with anyone else in the case USD shuts up shop and closes trade.
I.e: What use is USD if US doesn't actually export anything OTHER than USD....
"well you can buy oil with it..."
as a store of value, that isnt really a great position.
But as a currency, so long as the exchange rates are not constantly slipping by % per second, then its allright.
Wonder if they will make some law like...
"We will guarantee the exchange of USD for BITCOIN..." No matter how far the exchange rate goes in either direction?
Just wait here ten minutes while our Tokamac cluster competes with the alien dyson-sphere for the transaction fee....
in the mean time...
%slippage away!
Thats is also what I'm after.
Its not like the prior commitment for USD being exchangeable for, and backed by GOLD at a 'Pegged' price.
But that it is exchangeable for Oil, and at the price set in the market. Backing the 'floating' oil price in the market...
I would view/consider that more of a commitment for the USA to accept international trade in return FOR USD, on the market, for those that received USD when they sold their OIL as an export.
and also that USD exchanged between countries OTHER than the US, is accepted, separate from an intermediary exchange for simply another currency, and that its use to buy oil assures its convertibility to something physical, guaranteed.
All well and good for Country A to accept USD for OIL.
But what good is that to anyone, if that country cannot purchase Americas goods and services with USD obtained from their OIL trade; or with anyone else in the case USD shuts up shop and closes trade.
I.e: What use is USD if US doesn't actually export anything OTHER than USD....
"well you can buy oil with it..."
as a store of value, that isnt really a great position.
But as a currency, so long as the exchange rates are not constantly slipping by % per second, then its allright.
Wonder if they will make some law like...
"We will guarantee the exchange of USD for BITCOIN..." No matter how far the exchange rate goes in either direction?
Just wait here ten minutes while our Tokamac cluster competes with the alien dyson-sphere for the transaction fee....
in the mean time...
%slippage away!
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For most countries such a move would be super inflationary. The trouble is when a currency is pegged to anything then the government loses control over it and as a result over the domestic economy, which is why the Bretton Woods system collapsed.
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pmbug
Well-Known Member
The world (well, the non-BRICS+ anyway) needs USDs to buy oil. They conduct global trade for just about everything (ie. non-oil) in USDs as a consequence. So KSA can buy just about anything from just about any (non-BRICS+) country using USDs.