Lunar Death?

Holdfast · Feb 7, 2014

dragafem said:
what would u call longterm demand? 10 years and over?rabbits are 3 years old and not much love for them.

just as 1for1 put it,quantity over pretty pictures....

im getting the feeling that holdfast has a second job working at the mint :lol:

Cheers...I'm particularly interested in the Series 2 Ag bulliion coins.

bloomst · Feb 7, 2014

I wouldn't put gilded in the same category of lunar bullion, they two different breed!

yrh0413 · Feb 7, 2014

worldbubble said:
yrh0413 said:

I have some questions... foremost, no offense to anyone:

A complete series is 12 pieces, annual release. Once the entire series is done (Chinese Lunar from Rat to Pig), there will be a Series 3, Series 4. New series is not a continuity of its previous series.

When a lunar series is completed, stackers will go for the next Series. Most new stackers I know actually prefer to get into new series because they are more affordable and they are pretty much the "same" in terms of motives (Lunar Rat to Pig). Completed series will be a full series, new stackers will likely have to buy the whole collection from other stackers if they really like the design.

The Lunar series differs from ongoing series like Kooks/Koala/Chinese Pandas as the later are ongoing series without a definite "end date". It could stretch more than 12 years (like the Kooks and Pandas) and higher chance that new stackers will try to complete the set, which result in constant demand for past year releases.

Questions:
1. I have seen Perth Mint Lunar Series 1 (bullion and glided) being put up for sale but not many takers. Does market demand dies down significantly on completed Lunar series?
2. Give it another 6-12 years and Perth Mint will likely be running its Lunar Series 3 or 4. What happens to Series 1 and 2? Will they still be in hot demand?

Friends of mine usually buy gold and silver Lunars of specific years, mainly matching their kids' year of birth. Not many of them will try to complete the entire series. This is just my observation and may not apply to general public. I would like to hear your opinions...

Click to expand...

1. market demand is not dying ... one should go back to 2009, mark the price of lunar and draw the line ... price spike of the series was at the same time silver spot made its highs.
Series 1 is already developed market and they will not rise that fast as Series 2, but, BUT, those who collect lunars buy them (I know because I buy as well as sell these)
2. Series 1 and 2 will be in high demand. Currently Investment wise series 2 offers better return in long run (coz it's cheaper than series 1) ... collection wise series 1 is more valuable. More people have stack of series 2 coins than just one of each of series 1. That's how prospective demand side looks

All new stackers start with current year, fascinated by the series and start looking backwards. Because it is boring to stay just with current year.))

P.S. There're 1/12 of population for each animal year ... so there's demand

Thanks! That's an interesting perspective. Most new stackers who got into physical metals tend to buy past-year releases of the current Lunar series (series 2), however for series 1 they can be purchased as a complete set thus that took away the fun of collecting one by one, not forgetting that it cost substantially more to purchase a full set over individual coins.

The way I see it, the market demand for Series 1 is pretty stagnant. New stackers will likely try to complete Series 2 and they might not get Series 1 set... that results in higher demand for Series 2 over Series 1. I do not have any Perth Mint bullion lunars because I started stacking in 2013 and I am not too keen to pay a premium for past releases, but I will definitely stack Series 3 in rolls!

worldbubble · Feb 7, 2014

take my words
if you are up to lunars
sooner or later you will go back to lunar 1

I never thought I'd buy early pandas but now I do ... coz day after day I complete some series and fewer and fewer coins left for my stomach to go after
May be because I'm addict to completing series, and going after some coins not collections is a real fun in this game.

yrh0413 · Feb 7, 2014

that's what I said: continuity of an ongoing series

I too started to collect past year panda because there is always an urge to complete the series. Gonna catch'em all!

... and that is the reason why I raised my initial questions on completed lunar series. To me buying a completed series (Canadian Wildlife, China Lunar Series 1 etc) is less attractive because I already seen the entire series... there is no excitement in speculating new designs. That's just me.

Lunardragon · Feb 7, 2014

Wish i could complete panda and Brits 92.5 series as well apart from lunar and kooks.
Too deep for my pocket

Altima · Feb 7, 2014

I completed my britannia bu set. What's harder is the proof set!

worldbubble · Feb 7, 2014

lucky you
I have none of my sets complete
stacker in me doesn't allow to pay high premiums for coins collector in me wants )))

barsenault · Feb 7, 2014

Altima said:
I completed my britannia bu set. What's harder is the proof set!

I too have these, and are one of my favorites. Love all the different designs they came up with on the odd years. Truly stunning. Boy have they blown it with the new issues 2013-2014; and lunar. And that new proof set is nice, but too costly. I got of 'ton' of the 2003 and 2010''s Brittanias. 2 of my favorites. Although some of the other odd years are nice too!!

goldpelican · Feb 8, 2014

After seeing prices at the show today, Series I Lunar, especially 1oz silver, are underpriced in Australia. Single coins are selling for 80-100 each here, and it's hard to find a dealers stand that does not have them.

motorbikez · Feb 8, 2014

goldpelican said:
After seeing prices at the show today, Series I Lunar, especially 1oz silver, are underpriced in Australia. Single coins are selling for 80-100 each here, and it's hard to find a dealers stand that does not have them.

They are not necessarily under priced in Australia, you have to take into account the VAT/Tax factor and currency movements, if you can ask the German dealers what import taxes they pay on coins from Aussie.

Re the UK, dealers would have to pay 20% VAT on the total value of package including postage plus 8 PO charge for any silver coins from outside the EU so you can say the same coin is roughly 25% dearer without any dealer mark up.

dragafem · Feb 8, 2014

goldpelican said:
After seeing prices at the show today, Series I Lunar, especially 1oz silver, are underpriced in Australia. Single coins are selling for 80-100 each here, and it's hard to find a dealers stand that does not have them.

does that mean,they are widely available over there and no one wants to pay that price tag...?

worldbubble · Feb 8, 2014

look at the prices on German ebay ... people do pay these prices

goldpelican · Feb 8, 2014

dragafem said:
goldpelican said:

After seeing prices at the show today, Series I Lunar, especially 1oz silver, are underpriced in Australia. Single coins are selling for 80-100 each here, and it's hard to find a dealers stand that does not have them.

Click to expand...

does that mean,they are widely available over there and no one wants to pay that price tag...?

No, I'm seeing them get bought.

goldpelican · Feb 8, 2014

motorbikez said:
goldpelican said:

After seeing prices at the show today, Series I Lunar, especially 1oz silver, are underpriced in Australia. Single coins are selling for 80-100 each here, and it's hard to find a dealers stand that does not have them.

Click to expand...

They are not necessarily under priced in Australia, you have to take into account the VAT/Tax factor and currency movements, if you can ask the German dealers what import taxes they pay on coins from Aussie.

Re the UK, dealers would have to pay 20% VAT on the total value of package including postage plus 8 PO charge for any silver coins from outside the EU so you can say the same coin is roughly 25% dearer without any dealer mark up.

I've seen them struggle to get $60-$70 per coin on this forum post Dragon release - at their peak sets of 12 were selling for $1200 on here, or $100 ea. 80 is $120, so even ignoring VAT, the cheapest are still selling at prices equal to their peak in Australia before prices started to decline here. 100 is $150.

HUGE volumes of these coins go to Germany via distributors, and have pretty much since inception. They're already inside the EU.

dragafem · Feb 8, 2014

eventually they should come back just the kooks did. first we hated the remints now u lucky if u could get one cheap...(99,04?)

dragafem · Feb 8, 2014

we all heard this and that about reminting.what I was saying was at the time of remint there was no love for kooks not even for the square capsuled one.look at the price of those today...and good luck to find a 99 square kook cheap.

anyway.this thread is for lunars so back on topic.

worldbubble · Feb 8, 2014

dragafem said:
we all heard this and that about reminting.what I was saying was at the time of remint there was no love for kooks not even for the square capsuled one.look at the price of those today...and good luck to find a 99 square kook cheap.

anyway.this thread is for lunars so back on topic.

give me round capsuled kook, I'll make it square ...:lol:
I don't understand this square kook hunting
I've missed the deal on 1991 squared kooks that were in line of three ... very unusual ... for that I'd pay the premium

Lunardragon · Feb 8, 2014

worldbubble said:
dragafem said:

we all heard this and that about reminting.what I was saying was at the time of remint there was no love for kooks not even for the square capsuled one.look at the price of those today...and good luck to find a 99 square kook cheap.

anyway.this thread is for lunars so back on topic.

Click to expand...

give me round capsuled kook, I'll make it square ...:lol:
I don't understand this square kook hunting
I've missed the deal on 1991 squared kooks that were in line of three ... very unusual ... for that I'd pay the premium

My BFF stacker told me... The weight of original kook coin itself in the square capsule has a slightly diff weight compare to normal round.
It is not?

worldbubble · Feb 8, 2014

Lunardragon said:
My BFF stacker told me... The weight of original kook coin itself in the square capsule has a slightly diff weight compare to normal round.
It is not?

I never tried opening them for weighing

as far as coins look the same and P.mint didn't tell there're difference all this round/square capsule just a noise as people buy coin not capsule, IMO

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