Low risk betting utilising compound returns

C

col0016

Active Member
Seeing a few Stackers going crazy over bitcoins has made me wonder about alternate ways of making money (I couldn't figure out how to buy them). What I've come up with is a bit of a scheme using my sportsbet app, basically I'm spamming lots of low risk bets (all under $1.50, most under $1.30) and reinventing the returns. Generally I'm not using more than 12% of my pool for any bet to minimise risk.
So far so good as I got an 11% return yesterday and if I keep this up my money should double in a week. Also I believe betting wins are tax free?

Any thoughts on this? Before anyone says it, yes at this stage it is very boring and most of the returns are <$10 but I'm looking long term.
 
I'm very bad at gambling but have considered the TAB account not as a way of making money but storing money.

If you think about it, in the event of a bank closure, the TAB will still be open.

Your money is accessable from any Pub or TAB outlet across the country (better than the banks). And the security will be just as high as for banks i imagine given the amount of money at stake.

I can see that apathy will prevent me from actioning this but am i on the right path? I don't think you earn interest in your account do you?
 
My father and I used TAB accounts to transfer money between us years ago before internet banking.
 
I'd assume they wouldn't keep there own money but would store it in banks anyway?

I'm not good at gambling either, however short odds favourites seem to be good at winning.
 
I got Jimmy Bartel at odds of 151.1 to win the Brownlow,couple bucks on that is cheaper than the coffee i had this morning
 
There are punting clubs around. I know of one that has had a private ruling from the ATO, that has deemed it recreational. So no tax payable. Returns have been double-digits every quarter since I became aware of it.
 
It's no different to the stock market, only difference is you pay a fee to bet on the stockmarket and then they tax your capital gains.
 
Well in less than a day I've made a 42% return just by picking short favourites for nba, nhl, soccer and tennis.

I don't like dogs or horses because they seem to be more luck based.
 
Haha I'll give it a crack :p

I don't know why, but some of the matches I'm betting on are lasting a suspiciously long time. I might leave the smaller soccer leagues alone for now as I can't easily view live scores and they seem to delay.

Up 46% in 18 hours though :)
 
Haha I just go through the coming up games on the sportsbet app, I don't actively seek them out. However I have been betting on Chinese, Brazilian, Mexican and Venezuelan soccer leagues and Japanese tennis :/
 
Don't back favorites and don't walk up steps backwards was a saying of Ken Howard, a racing commentator of some years back.

Have a staking plan and don't deviate from it.

Don't let your heart rule your head..You had a win on one team doesn't mean you have to back it again because of sentiment.

When betting don't take your head off and put a pumpkin on :)

Best of luck fellows, it's a hard way to make a $$.

Regards Errol 43
 
col0016 said:
Haha I just go through the coming up games on the sportsbet app, I don't actively seek them out. However I have been betting on Chinese, Brazilian, Mexican and Venezuelan soccer leagues and Japanese tennis :/
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Ha ha :lol:
this cracks me up.
Best of luck
 
Well I'm not betting on racing so I'll ignore Mr Howard :p
I'm not emotionally attached to any of the things I'm betting on, I'm just basing it on picking the most likely winner, even if they only offer 3% returns.
I got a bit ahead of myself today, too excited after doing so well, and paid a bit for it, however after 24 hours I'm up 39%.
I'm looking forward to being able to take my initialmoney back and just playing with the profits.
$120 in one day for a uni student who works at woolworths is substantial :)
 
col0016..Thats the way to becoming a pro gambler.

Bet with their money..

With such small % on winnings, what happens if you loose your winnings?

If you can pick the NRL or AFL games and get all right in one week, be prepared to stick it out for a year or so, then maybe you can make a killing by betting all up each week.. You only need one win a year and you will be well in front especially if you get a few better than even money ones up.

Regards Errol
 
errol43 said:
col0016..Thats the way to becoming a pro gambler.

Bet with their money..

With such small % on winnings, what happens if you loose your winnings?
Click to expand...
While it is true that most of my bets only get between 5-20% returns, the fact that I'm betting 20+ times per day makes this add up quickly.
I do sometimes question why I'll risk $20 to gain 80c, then I remind myself that it's because they're almost guaranteed to win and I'm making one years interest in 2 hours.
My risk of losing big time is quite low because atm I'm not betting more than 5% on anything. The higher the odds the less I bet.
 
I usually don't try to interfer in others' affairs, so this isn't easy to write. You're heading into the snake pit, sonny.

Have you performed a Risk-of-Ruin analysis, based on the size of your bankroll and your 'standard unit'? How many upsets would it break your entire bankroll?

I've paper-traded your always-chalk approach; limiting myself to MLB baseball due to its market depth, low information-disparity and lower team performance violatility.

Using Las Vegas sportbooks moneyline odds at time of closing, I computing the win/loss based on actual game results from 4 MLB seasons. (Simple win/loss moneyline bets, no handicaps, no over/unders. No exotics.)

The results were dramatic. The percentage of winners you'll need to consistently make just to break even is nearly 98%. Thats with MLB, a low-violatility team sport where you'd expect more reversion-to-mean.

Vegas books are also much lighter on the vig than Australian books. I'd hate to even contemplate what kind of vig you're putting up with.

Remember the line (odds) don't represent actual probability of an event; its the perceived probability based on the action of either side.

The majority of recrational sports bettors are gut-feeling bettors, team follower die-hards who bet to highlight alligences, or herd-followers who put up juice for the chalk favourite.

You'll find real sports handicappers usually write about risking no more than 1.0 - 1.5% of their 6-figure bankrolls on one wager; they are content to consistently win 55% over multiple seasons. They have winning streaks, they have losing streaks. They have the bankroll to weather them out. The key is consistency of percentages.

They don't rely on the odds/line to tell them who is more likely to win. They rely on their own information and statistical analysis of game histories, players performance, coaching strategy, injuries news, venue-specific factors adn even the weather. Thats the source of their long-term edge.

There is no secret system, no magic formula. Just knowing the game.

Look, I have no dog in this fight; at the end of the day its your money, do what you want with it. Just don't say you weren't warned.
 
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