Low risk betting utilising compound returns

I realise that the odds don't equal the actual chance of winning and I appreciate the advice.

It would take about 30 upsets in a row to send me back to 0.

I'm not a high roller and atm it's just a bit of fun. Unfortunately atm I don't have the time or desire to put in that much effort, however I might start to take my principal back out so that I don't have anything to lose.
Cheers.
 
Roswell Crash Survivor said:
Vegas books are also much lighter on the vig than Australian books. I'd hate to even contemplate what kind of vig you're putting up with.
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Could you please clarify this.
 
A lot of very fine minds have spent a lot of time trying to come up with a winning system for roulette. However, any halfway-decent mathmatician will tell you that the system that will minimise your losses is to bet as few times as possible - it's a salami slice probabilty function: the zeroes ensure the house has the edge. The more times you play, the less chance you have of getting ahead. Unfortunately, putting everything on Red at seven pm and then having nothing to do for the rest of the night doesn't appeal to most people :)

With Sportsbet and other online betting I'd be surprised if a simple favourite-picking system is free of landmines. They can afford an effectively infinite amount of small bet losses to your account, wheras you cannot, and if you have a losing streak it is very tempting to modify your system to replace the losses. At that point, you have broken your rules and are emotionally involved, and potentially broke.

If you are disciplined enough to walk away from a loss, and pull money out, then you may well do fine. If not, recognise that now, and stick by your rules.
 
Roswell Crash Survivor said:
Have you performed a Risk-of-Ruin analysis, based on the size of your bankroll and your 'standard unit'? How many upsets would it break your entire bankroll?
......
You'll find real sports handicappers usually write about risking no more than 1.0 - 1.5% of their 6-figure bankrolls on one wager; they are content to consistently win 55% over multiple seasons. They have winning streaks, they have losing streaks. They have the bankroll to weather them out. The key is consistency of percentages.

They don't rely on the odds/line to tell them who is more likely to win. They rely on their own information and statistical analysis of game histories, players performance, coaching strategy, injuries news, venue-specific factors adn even the weather. Thats the source of their long-term edge.

There is no secret system, no magic formula. Just knowing the game.
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RCS, I hope you trade paper markets, because you have the ground rules nailed! :)
 
col0016 said:
Roswell Crash Survivor said:
Vegas books are also much lighter on the vig than Australian books. I'd hate to even contemplate what kind of vig you're putting up with.
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Could you please clarify this.
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Sure thing. Vig is short for 'vigorish'.

Merriam-Webster Dictionary said:
vigorish noun \vi-g-rish\

Definition of VIGORISH

1
: a charge taken (as by a bookie or a gambling house) on bets; also : the degree of such a charge <a vigorish of five percent>
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The vig is why the book / totalizer always makes a profit from each event regardless of the end result.

Rather than reinventing the wheel trying to explain how it works, I'll point you to Wikipedia who can explain it better than I can.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking
 
col0016 said:
So do you bet through Vegas sites?
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I don't get to place wagers with Vegas books over the net. No thanks to the US Federal Interstate Wires Act of 1961, its actually illegal for licensed Vegas sportsbooks to accept bets or wagers over just about any kind of transmission. :rolleyes:

That doesn't stop other operators setting up shop in overseas jurisdictions (i.e. islands in the Caribbean) more hospitable to gambling - with odds identical to whats on offer in Las Vegas. :cool:

In your situation, telegraphic transfer fees and minimum action requirement means they aren't an economic option for you.

I'm glad to see you're consolidating by withdrawing your initial stake. Just don't get sloppy because its 'winnings'.
 
col0016 said:
So you're like a pro?
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I don't consider myself a professional sports handicapper by any means, or even any type of export or authority on sports betting.

If you want to ask me something about sports betting, you're welcome to do it through Private Message here.

I'm willing to share past expereinces, but your mileage may vary. DYOR etc.
 
Back in the old days............

My Dad had a method of betting on the GG's.

He reckon's back the favourite in each race down at ya local track and you'll win. No TAB or online (none in his day No fing cameras either :lol: ), just bet at the track!

Dad's mate Trevor, had a few spare bob, so he tried Dad's method and for a few months, he made easy money, and thought my Dad was a guru! Over a few sessions of Southwark and wins, Trev was convinced Dad's method was un-breakable.

But then came the losses! :(

Trev had to outlay over 5 g's to break his loosing streak, in the end he lost his nerve and didn't back the favourite; the horse won the race and that was the end of Trev's system of backing favourites.

As a side note, he started at business as a truck driver carting water in the Adelaide Hills, he was an electrician by trade but could also weld and fabricate well, so he made big bucks repairing trucks and carting water, he's a self made millionaire and the last time I heard of him, he was cruising the Murray on a house boat sipping wine and chewing on good lamb shank! :D

H
 
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