Jim Rickards in Money Morning

JulieW

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Latest newsletter for Money Morning:


Hi. Jim Rickards here. I'm the bestselling author of Currency Wars and The Death of Money.

I'm also a renowned expert on gold, and it's in that capacity I specifically asked to write to you today.

You see, gold had a strong run-up in the immediate aftermath of the UK's Brexit vote on 23 June. Some of those gains were given back once the situation stabilised, and the Conservatives were able to form a new government faster and more smoothly than originally expected.

However, gold stayed well above the pre-Brexit level of US$1,260 an ounce and consolidated around US$1,330 an ounce.

Then gold had another uptick in the immediate aftermath of the Turkish coup attempt on 15 July. These gains also faded when it became apparent that the coup would fail. But gold found its footing once again at US$1,330 an ounce.

This tells you something extremely significant.

It tells you there's a favourable technical pattern where bad news will send gold higherbut good news does not take it lower.

Looking around the world at Russia, Syria, Libya, North Korea, the South China Sea, Venezuela and social discord from Europe to the U.S., it's difficult to make the case for a lot of good news.

Gold continues to perform its role as a safe haven in times of crisis, and there is no shortage of crises on the horizon.

On a fundamental basis, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish posture of last May is a distant memory. All indications coming out of the Fed right now are extremely dovish. No interest rate hikes should be expected until 2017 at the earliest.

Forward guidance in the form of speeches and leaks to the media confirms that dovish stance. This is a positive for gold. Generally, an easy money stance accompanied by low interest rates and a weaker foreign exchange value for the dollar lead to higher dollar prices for gold.

The dollar strengthened with the reactions to Brexit and the Turkish coup. Now that those events are behind us, the weak dollar trend can resume.

Meanwhile, gold demand from both East and West is increasing at the same time, and supply shortages are popping up. Gold supplies have flat-lined because new mining projects were shuttered or delayed during gold's lean years from 2012-15.

Those new projects can take five years or longer to launch a new mine. There's only one way to clear the market much higher gold prices.

Add it all up and it what does it mean?

Onwards and upwards for the dollar prices of gold and, importantly, gold stocks.
 
But gold didn't find its footing at $1330. Rickards is just another gold pumptard since he sold out to Casey. Most of these guys make amusing reading/watching, but don't provide you with an actionable advice. Put 10% (conservative)-20%(aggressive) of your assets into gold. He said that years ago and from what I read, he hasn't changed his advice. Not sure why he is noteworthy any more.
 
This bloke writes positive or negative stuff depending on what he is flogging that day.

He has changed the entire persona of 'Daily Reckoning', and probably tripled its profits, but at a cost to its cred. Canavan, Sayce, and Gowdie are the only ones worth reading.

JMO


OC
 
dccpa said:
But gold didn't find its footing at $1330. Rickards is just another gold pumptard since he sold out to Casey. Most of these guys make amusing reading/watching, but don't provide you with an actionable advice. Put 10% (conservative)-20%(aggressive) of your assets into gold. He said that years ago and from what I read, he hasn't changed his advice. Not sure why he is noteworthy any more.


The only person (PM pumper) you can trust is Marin Katusa. At start of 2011 he was the ONLY person that gave a dark warning to resource (PM) investors which literally got him booed off stage. He told everyone to get ready because the big deflation is coming and that is exactly what happened. Katusa is the best bar none. It's at the start of this video


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GcLGGJsRrw[/youtube]
 
Not interested in buying mining shares,

Far too many mining companies live on 'estimated' or 'proven' reserves, and end up the results are about 1/4 of the original figures.

The experts use "could" "up to", "as much as" etc and quote "1234%" as possible profits.

I get a zillion of these emails every day!

Rather have the physical in the Vault!

JMO


OC
 
Old Codger said:
Rather have the physical in the Vault!


I too got physical in the vault but I also want a share of what's in the ground. In a bull market far higher returns for a share on what's in the ground.
 
"In a bull market far higher returns for a share on what's in the ground."


IF it really IS in the ground!

(we used to call them "Blue Sky Mines" back in the olden (Poseidon) days.)

OC
 
The dollar is not that weak.
fut_chart.ashx

Close to 100, a value that was last seen 10 years ago.
In the nineties it also hung around that.
So a further sideways (implying euro sideways too) wouldn't be that abnormal.
 
Old Codger said:
Far too many mining companies live on 'estimated' or 'proven' reserves, and end up the results are about 1/4 of the original figures.
Any substantial amount data avail somewhere, for that estimated/proven > actual?
 
No, just words of wisdom from the world of mining company share buying in the '60s etc.

The composition of the text in a share prospectus or Annual Report have to be read VERY carefully. "Creative Writing" they call that.

Like the global warmies, lots of Could, May, Up to, as much as, etc.

Drill samples are usually the best they have, and the others are quietly forgotten.

Caveat emptor.

OC
 
Skyrocket said:
dccpa said:
But gold didn't find its footing at $1330. Rickards is just another gold pumptard since he sold out to Casey. Most of these guys make amusing reading/watching, but don't provide you with an actionable advice. Put 10% (conservative)-20%(aggressive) of your assets into gold. He said that years ago and from what I read, he hasn't changed his advice. Not sure why he is noteworthy any more.


The only person (PM pumper) you can trust is Marin Katusa. At start of 2011 he was the ONLY person that gave a dark warning to resource (PM) investors which literally got him booed off stage. He told everyone to get ready because the big deflation is coming and that is exactly what happened. Katusa is the best bar none. It's at the start of this video


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GcLGGJsRrw[/youtube]

A lot of people warned about silver. Bob Moriarty called the top around $35 and cussed, cussed, cussed until it finally topped. At the end of April, 2011, the British money manager who used to give interviews on KWN nailed it exactly calling for a $10-15 drop in 2-3 days. After that, his predictions went to crap, but that was the best single market call I have ever read. Jim Rogers was right too. Even I knew it was a top when it got close to $50, but I greatly underestimated the correction.

The current commodities corrections have been the result of supply increases (overbuilding mines/fracking) and demand decreases (China). I agree that when the credit markets implode, we will suffer from extreme deflation and then likely hyperinflation of currencies. The question is always when it will happen.
 
Old Codger said:
No, just words of wisdom from the world of mining company share buying in the '60s etc.

The composition of the text in a share prospectus or Annual Report have to be read VERY carefully. "Creative Writing" they call that.

Like the global warmies, lots of Could, May, Up to, as much as, etc.

Drill samples are usually the best they have, and the others are quietly forgotten.

Caveat emptor.

OC
Yes, but I ment, in the end, they DO report proven/estimated amounts, and they DO report actual, right?
Regardless the differences between former and latter.
Otherwise there would be no statement possible at all.
Since you made a statement, you must have some data available?
So is there a place you found that collects these from a number of mining companies, abit like historical data, so one can judge the trend of the difference between proven/estimated and actual?
For ex, a first Google result is this one: http://www.statista.com/statistics/273649/silver-reserves-of-countries/
"Silver reserves worldwide as of 2015, by country (in 1,000 metric tons)"
"This statistic shows the silver reserves worldwide as estimated in 2015, distributed by major countries. As of that year, the United States had estimated silver reserves of approximately 25,000 metric tons. Australia, with an estimated 85 thousand metric tons, was ranked second worldwide based on silver reserves."$49 per month*

"Premium content"

"Exclusive Premium statistic

You need a Premium membership to access this statistic.
Advantages of our Premium Account:

Immediate access to our full Premium database
Save time! Easy to include in your presentations
Credible data! Over 18,000 data sources

With Statista, you get straight to the point: analyzing data, rather than searching for it. "

"$49 per month* "

So is there a freebie around too? :D
This is about silver not gold though.
Because I consider the gold mining as a minor factor in the price trend, due to the huge gold stocks in the world, it's "consumed" much less than silver, considering the price ratio.
 
You are correct. I stopped following KWN a long time ago, so I didn't know he dropped off the interview roster. That was one incredible call by Davies, but the later calls were not good.

Skyrocket, a lot of people have been calling for deflation/depression for a long time. It sounds like Katusa's timing was much closer than a lot of them, but I haven't followed him.

One thing I learned from researching/reading investment gurus is that they practice more historical revisionism than Hillary Clinton. To me, being an investment letter writer is one of the best con games in the world. Buy a stock, tout it in your letter/on your web site. Followers buy and the stock goes up. Sell as the followers are buying. Tell them to sell. Rinse and repeat. You get rich on the stock selections and you get paid too.
 
JulieW said:
Bo Polny !

Phony, I mean Polny is a great example. Sinclair's brought in Polny when Noricini left. They posted a Polny chart with exact dates. About two days later, wrong-way Polny had missed yet again, but the dates on the chart had been changed. Prior to that event, I had believed Sinclair was sincere, but somewhat misguided. At that point, I lost all respect for Sinclair and abandoned his web site.

Other than Norcini's writings, and Jim Rogers/Kyle Bass videos, I pay little attention to the prognosticators. Although I rarely see anything from this person, It's A Mystery is someone to pay attention to. He called the Gold/Yen relationship in late 2012/early 2013 and he also called this year's gold rally.
 
There's probably about 6 people in the world who know what the price of gold is, and will be, and they aren't writing newsletters.
 
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