Latest newsletter for Money Morning:
Hi. Jim Rickards here. I'm the bestselling author of Currency Wars and The Death of Money.
I'm also a renowned expert on gold, and it's in that capacity I specifically asked to write to you today.
You see, gold had a strong run-up in the immediate aftermath of the UK's Brexit vote on 23 June. Some of those gains were given back once the situation stabilised, and the Conservatives were able to form a new government faster and more smoothly than originally expected.
However, gold stayed well above the pre-Brexit level of US$1,260 an ounce and consolidated around US$1,330 an ounce.
Then gold had another uptick in the immediate aftermath of the Turkish coup attempt on 15 July. These gains also faded when it became apparent that the coup would fail. But gold found its footing once again at US$1,330 an ounce.
This tells you something extremely significant.
It tells you there's a favourable technical pattern where bad news will send gold higherbut good news does not take it lower.
Looking around the world at Russia, Syria, Libya, North Korea, the South China Sea, Venezuela and social discord from Europe to the U.S., it's difficult to make the case for a lot of good news.
Gold continues to perform its role as a safe haven in times of crisis, and there is no shortage of crises on the horizon.
On a fundamental basis, the US Federal Reserve's hawkish posture of last May is a distant memory. All indications coming out of the Fed right now are extremely dovish. No interest rate hikes should be expected until 2017 at the earliest.
Forward guidance in the form of speeches and leaks to the media confirms that dovish stance. This is a positive for gold. Generally, an easy money stance accompanied by low interest rates and a weaker foreign exchange value for the dollar lead to higher dollar prices for gold.
The dollar strengthened with the reactions to Brexit and the Turkish coup. Now that those events are behind us, the weak dollar trend can resume.
Meanwhile, gold demand from both East and West is increasing at the same time, and supply shortages are popping up. Gold supplies have flat-lined because new mining projects were shuttered or delayed during gold's lean years from 2012-15.
Those new projects can take five years or longer to launch a new mine. There's only one way to clear the market much higher gold prices.
Add it all up and it what does it mean?
Onwards and upwards for the dollar prices of gold and, importantly, gold stocks.