Gold at ATH.....what do your tea leaves say?

The tea leaves have spoken, the price of gold (currently $3825/oz $AUD) is:

  • In bubble territory - a correction is imminent, but buying the dip is a good idea.

    Votes: 1 6.3%

  • Overvalued - its time to start selling and continue doing so. Bear market on the horizon.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Plateauing - minimal movement expected from here on.

    Votes: 3 18.8%

  • Undervalued - This is a great buying opportunity.

    Votes: 5 31.3%

  • I dont drink tea.

    Votes: 7 43.8%
  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
mybullion.com.au said:
Just a rehash on my forecast from 1 month ago:




To date AUD TO USD has depreciated to 63.75 (so my bullish forecast was wrong)
and Gold did not plateau, instead its hovering around all times highs right now. (Wrong again)

THIS is why I dont trade :D
Click to expand...
with headwinds like China's appetite for iron ore on the massive wane, who was even forecasting bullish on AUD? Depends on what you read, but in the past few weeks it has been bearish. I believe it also has a large bearing in RBA's decisions, they don't want the AUD to become the "pacific peso". In any case, unless they tighter, they won't have much success!
 
My thinking is that people are underestimating how much the US federal reserve will cut rates in '25 - lowering their currency in comparison to ours. You're right though that China's slowdown is a negative for the AUD.

Those two world powers alone are a massive influence :confused:

Either way, just keep stackin ;)
 
mybullion.com.au said:
My thinking is that people are underestimating how much the US federal reserve will cut rates in '25 - lowering their currency in comparison to ours.
Click to expand...

Maybe not. We're entering a period of fiscal policy dominance. The upshot of that is what Trump does will have more impact than what JPow does.
 
Haven't got my charts in front of me but some things are fairly obvious to note:

Gold needs to hold USD2625 or thereabouts, or I'll have to revisit my chart.

DXY putting out more strong vibes, which I thought was always fkn obvious.

Oil still painting the screen red, which kind of makes all the inflation noise a head scratcher.

So my end of year prediction is...
 
Failed to hold 2635. Target by Jan 1 is 2645, but that would break the falling price pattern since the Oct highs. More likely that we'll see another red month on the charts.
 
Gold is incredibly bullish. Same technical insights are happening now, at an insititutional point of interest, where it did back in Jun 2023 (so before the massive price rise). If true, usually second legs of a price swing are more dynamic, which could push gold to U.S 3500 - 4000.

That being said, I think the move in the AUD is overblown, and a rerate might happen in the first quarter - which obviously isn't as great for XAUAUD.

I think the commodity of 2025 will be oil though ;)
 
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