Gold at ATH.....what do your tea leaves say?

The tea leaves have spoken, the price of gold (currently $3825/oz $AUD) is:

  • In bubble territory - a correction is imminent, but buying the dip is a good idea.

    Votes: 1 6.3%

  • Overvalued - its time to start selling and continue doing so. Bear market on the horizon.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Plateauing - minimal movement expected from here on.

    Votes: 3 18.8%

  • Undervalued - This is a great buying opportunity.

    Votes: 5 31.3%

  • I dont drink tea.

    Votes: 7 43.8%
  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
It's shaping to be an interesting battle, in the blue corner the Federal Reserve's independence to make policy decisions which may be at odds with politicians and in the red corner the argument that elected officials should be the ones charged with making economic decisions.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed support for an idea to give presidents more control over the Federal Reserve, which could threaten its independence.
On his social-media platform X late Thursday, Musk placed the "100" emoji on a retweet of a post from Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, that said, "The Executive Branch should be under the direction of the president. That’s how the Constitution was designed. The Federal Reserve is one of many examples of how we’ve deviated from the Constitution in that regard. Yet another reason why we should #EndTheFed"
Click to expand...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...powell-says-he-won-t-resign-early/ar-AA1tQ7Ve
 
Finally having a correction, it's about damn time!
The CBs and eastern governments will appreciate more buying opportunities I'm sure, as will I.
We all know where this is going.
 
Last edited:
JohnnyBravo300 said:
The CBs and eastern governments will appreciate more buying opportunities I'm sure
Click to expand...

CB demand has been declining steadily since the highs in Q3 2022, there's been a couple of surges (Q3 23 and Q1 24) during that time:

Screenshot 2024-11-12 at 6.08.57 am.png


Source: World Gold Council

I wonder if price action here will have an impact on future purchases by CBs?:

DXY_2024-11-12_06-10-41.png

And the World Bank is anticipating that commodity prices are expected to decline during 2025:

commodity-price-projections.png

Food for thought.


 
Cheers shiney, it’s interesting to hear others outlook on precious metal markets. Your call for gold retreating to 1900-2200 in US dollars is a reasonable prediction.

I wonder what happens to gold in terms of $AUD? Does our currency continue its retreat? If I had to guess, I reckon it strengthens from here on, but in tandem with the US gold price, therefore keeping gold in a range of A$3900 to A$4300 for the foreseeable future. Boring I know and based on absolutely nothing but a gut feeling, but let’s keep checking back here each quarter to see who’s on the mark. So I’m going with ‘Plateauing - minimal movement expected from here on.’
As of posting….

Gold price: $US2620 / $A3990

AUD TO USD: 65.75
 
mybullion.com.au said:
I wonder what happens to gold in terms of $AUD? Does our currency continue its retreat?
Click to expand...

A rising USD may put pressure on the AUD, add declining commodity prices into the mix then a drop in gold denominated in USD could see either a stable price in AUD as you've suggested or even a rise.

A spike in commodity prices could change that outlook, but then you've got other potential factors such as Trump's fiscal and domestic immigration policies weighing on inflation and US economic growth. My crystal ball is cloudy, either way once it all pans out we'll know what's happened. :p
 
mybullion.com.au said:
Haha, I started reigning in any motivation to act on my ‘forecasts’ a long time ago. Been humbled WAY too many times :D
Click to expand...

Lol, yep, similar. DCA during dips into strong conviction assets based on solid fundamentals and avoid the meme hype like:

DJT_2024-11-12_07-01-21.png

After all, we've only got so much money to go around.
 
Peter said:
Impossible to know the future.Too many unknowables.
Click to expand...

Exactly, that's why I gather as much information as possible from the present and the past in an attempt to plot the future path of an asset. Just gathering the "knowables" and the "unkowables" together, analyse them and work out a plan that maximises the upside while minimising the down. It can be done with any asset, whether it's property, stocks, crypto and even gold. It doesn't mean I'll be right (see 2023 by way of example in regards to gold) but in an environment of limited capital, allocation of those limited resources is critical in order to enhance returns or at least reduce opportunity cost. The POG doesn't always appreciate therefore I don't want to be holding an asset that doesn't return any income in a period where it could be losing value if I don't have a long term conviction about its price.

As an example I've sold my gold ETFs for reasons I've stated previously and will invest that capital into US value stocks ie large cap companies that have had over 50 years of history of paying increasing annual dividends. I'll be looking for buying opportunities for example JNJ, CXV and KO are in my sights, I'd like some ITW but it's too pricey at the moment as a result I'll be expecting better returns than leaving those $$ in QAU particularly if the AUD comes under pressure from a rising USD. I've also sold SIL and UGL in the past few weeks, as well as other funds that no longer serve me a purpose and channelled the funds elsewhere.

The alternative is to remain passive, throw my hands in the air yelling "IT'S ALL TOO HARD" and let the market tide sweep me along in whatever direction it travels. Naah ;)
 
Bob Loukas gold chart, think this is a chart worth revisiting come year's end:

GcrWdS9XUAAabjs
 
mybullion.com.au said:
......and as of market close we are at US2640. That chart sees it heading down to US2480 over the next month.
Watching o_O
Click to expand...

He sees the gold price re-establishing itself in 2025, I'm not so sure but he's smarter than I am.

I have concerns that should Trump's policies around tariffs and immigration have the effect I expect them to (lower growth) then we may see USD demand rise if there is a shortage of USD circulating globally as a result of declining trade levels with the USA. Usually gold and the DXY move in opposite directions. On the other hand there's the fiscal stimulus that Trump is expected to inject into the economy which could offset lower import demand but then it may have an inflationary effect.

Very uncertain times ahead over the next 12 months.
 
Yes uncertain that's for sure - even near term. I don't think many would have guessed that Biden, essentially a lame duck president with less than two months in office left, would choose to escalate the war with Russia by approving the use of long-range missiles :confused:
 
Some charts to consider, or ignore...

DXY:

DXY_2024-12-02_20-14-07.png

Not much to say about it. Leaving it up to JPow to pilot this one.

Gold:

XAUUSD_2024-12-02_20-17-48.png

Ascending parallel channel, resistance zone in the upper green band, support in the lower, price action to watch for the remainder of December (black circled bit) = at the end of each of the next 4 weeks looking at it holding around 2585, 2610, 2625, and 2635 by 30/12 in order to avoid breaking through the lower bound of the rising parallel channel. If it fails then there's the 2530 - 2580 support zone.
 
Just a rehash on my forecast from 1 month ago:

mybullion.com.au said:
Cheers shiney, it’s interesting to hear others outlook on precious metal markets. Your call for gold retreating to 1900-2200 in US dollars is a reasonable prediction.

I wonder what happens to gold in terms of $AUD? Does our currency continue its retreat? If I had to guess, I reckon it strengthens from here on, but in tandem with the US gold price, therefore keeping gold in a range of A$3900 to A$4300 for the foreseeable future. Boring I know and based on absolutely nothing but a gut feeling, but let’s keep checking back here each quarter to see who’s on the mark. So I’m going with ‘Plateauing - minimal movement expected from here on.’
As of posting….
Gold price: $US2620 / $A3990
AUD TO USD: 65.75
Click to expand...


To date AUD TO USD has depreciated to 63.75 (so my bullish forecast was wrong)
and Gold did not plateau, instead its hovering around all times highs right now. (Wrong again)

THIS is why I dont trade :D
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top