Gold at ATH.....what do your tea leaves say?

The tea leaves have spoken, the price of gold (currently $3825/oz $AUD) is:

  • In bubble territory - a correction is imminent, but buying the dip is a good idea.

    Votes: 1 6.3%

  • Overvalued - its time to start selling and continue doing so. Bear market on the horizon.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Plateauing - minimal movement expected from here on.

    Votes: 3 18.8%

  • Undervalued - This is a great buying opportunity.

    Votes: 5 31.3%

  • I dont drink tea.

    Votes: 7 43.8%
  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
I don't know about "undervalued" so I didn't choose it but I see macroeconomic tailwinds for the price. It's the opportunity cost that may be an issue when compared to other assets that are likely to do well in an easing rate environment.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
I don't know about "undervalued" so I didn't choose it but I see macroeconomic tailwinds for the price. It's the opportunity cost that may be an issue when compared to other assets that are likely to do well in an easing rate environment.
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Good point. If I could edit the options I'd include something along the lines of "Fairly valued, however there are other asset classes with more upside potential to focus on."
 
For a physical asset held safely and securely free from company failings,political decisions digital manipulation unable to be printed at will it has done well...this "non productive" "Rock" appeal shines and will continue to over time, falling here and there only to rise and continue a steady and sometimes slow ascent. This world is becoming more crazy,unstable and unpredictable and as they always have people,central banks,etc will seek shelter and security of safe haven ;) something time tested,proven and beautiful...:cool::D
 
Real $ Return said:
central banks,etc will seek shelter and security of safe haven
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Remember it's only a select few central banks who do that and they don't buy it as a "safe haven" asset as some investors do but rather as a hedge to their USD reserves.

The idea that because some CBs buy gold therefore retail investors should buy gold is a false point IMO.
 
If an investor outside of the US is after a hedge against the USD with exposure to gold as some central banks attempt to achieve with their reserve balances then a currency hedged ETF like QAU.AU may be a better option.

I've held some since March 24 this year (believing that the AUD had bottomed against the USD) and have seen a 17.4% return including cost and brokerage fees. Gold in AUD has seen a 7% return over the same time frame.
 
JohnnyBravo300 said:
It has no where to go but UP here in the States.
Brandon and Gomer Powell are making sure of it.
There isn't a level head or an honest heart anywhere to be found in DC or at the Fed.
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So what your saying is, the potential upside is...
trump-huge
 
Conversely, I reckon that ETF would return greater losses than holding gold in a falling market because the value of the USD would rise in relation to the AUD.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Remember it's only a select few central banks who do that and they don't buy it as a "safe haven" asset as some investors do but rather as a hedge to their USD reserves.

The idea that because some CBs buy gold therefore retail investors should buy gold is a false point IMO.
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This is true but faith in USD fading many holders slowly offloading and derisking from over reliance...freedom from having their assets frozen and confiscated so reallocated into universal/global money (gold) failing debt unsustainable, questionable decisions negatively effecting majority of other countries and somewhat abuse of reserve currency status. Only being doing this awhile and am ignorant of many things but USA apparently has still top gold reserves IF any exist at over 8000tonnes and this "fact" also could show that even the idea that the fiat backed by gold still shows its true worth.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
If an investor outside of the US is after a hedge against the USD with exposure to gold as some central banks attempt to achieve with their reserve balances then a currency hedged ETF like QAU.AU may be a better option.

I've held some since March 24 this year (believing that the AUD had bottomed against the USD) and have seen a 17.4% return including cost and brokerage fees. Gold in AUD has seen a 7% return over the same time frame.
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Def cash to be made in better and somewhat more riskier investments but as stackers the physical aspect of what we do and % of liquid wealth outside the system is what also appeals, while need to convert what we hold is real as it gets and cant be scammed,hacked or stolen they can try but id said price theyd pay from us is not worth their efforts ;)This world is fake and manipulated in many many ways from media,statistics,core inflation,etc,etc so i have faith in whats real cos were fed lies daily and as more people wake up and see through the shit they too will want something tangible,even in last few years retail investors see the shine too :)
 
Real $ Return said:
This is true but faith in USD fading many holders slowly offloading and derisking from over reliance...freedom from having their assets frozen and confiscated so reallocated into universal/global money (gold)
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I agree that it stems from a desire to derisk, for some nations it's the global sanctions eg Russia, for others like China, Saudi Arabia and those that have a large net balance of trade with the US it's more derisking from a protfolio perspective ie too many USD fx reserves. Some of that has gone into gold, but most has gone into alternative currencies incl the Euro, Sterling etc. Gold has declined markedly since the 60's largely due to the difficulty in transporting it as we are now in a digital rather than physical age - have a look at how porn has gone almost completely digital as an example (but I wouldn't know personally, it's what a friend reckons :D), and digital transfers of wealth are safer and more efficient.

Screenshot 2024-09-18 at 4.34.56 pm.png

As far as a loss of faith goes, I believe that only plays a part in a small section of the retail sector eg most on this forum for example.

That being said, the short to mid-term outlook is rosy for gold.
 
Crystal ball time.

I knocked this up some time last year, the blue bars were my forecast price action, after I missed buying the lows in Sept/Oct 2023 as I was expecting a correction below 1700 which never materialised. Oh well. Looks like the highs arrived earlier than expected but the predicted price was pretty close, nearly 2700.

Now with Trump going to the White House he will replace JPow with an appointee that will be much more favourable toward his own policies ie read: growth as opposed to inflation control. So rates are going to come down faster than if JPow remained in office. This will drive inflation. I'm not sure when, maybe as early as Dec 2025 we'll see signs maybe later. As a result, I'm going to state that gold has reached it's high and the price action will follow a path similar to the grey bars plotted out below that I just added. Maybe the duration in the back 3rd may not be as drawn out though ie the bottom may come sooner than 2028 and not get under 2000. I'm hoping it gets under 2200, a correction in the band between that price and 1900 will indicate the time to buy back in. It may not be the bottom but it probably won't be far off hopefully. I'm selling my gold ETFs (just over 21% profit as I was late to the party, bought in March this year).

XAUUSD_2024-11-11_14-52-39.png
 
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Here we go:

Dollar Rises on Prospect of Higher Inflation Under Trump — Market Talk

The dollar rises as the prospect of inflationary policies under U.S. president-elect Donald Trump might limit the Federal Reserve's capacity to cut interest rates further, Swissquote Bank says.
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https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20241111001991:0/

Yes the policies are inflationary, no I don't reckon it will stop The Fed because it will be a different Fed under a President intent on interfering in policy and with his own man in the job.
 
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