Gloom and Doom for Oz Thread

[Skyrocket]

Bad News Bear is back

• Job ads are now +12.1% higher than a year ago (172,395). Tis the highest level in nearly 6½ years.

• Business gross profits have soared by +27% over the past year to a record of $319 billion

• economy grew by about +3 per cent over the year to September. Bingo.

• new interest-only lending now well below the proposed regulatory cap with investor credit growing at way below the 10 per cent annual speed limit.

• capital investment increased to an estimated $29.4 billion in the third quarter, higher than in the June quarter and +2.3 per cent higher than a year ago

• expected investment for 2017-18, estimated to rise to $108.9 billion. Up by +5.6% from the previous quarter.

• Investment in services industries is now booming again with the expected investment in 'other selected industries' some +13.3% higher than a year ago at $66.5 billion.

• In 10 years, the number of 25 to 32 year olds has exploded from about 2.2 million to 2.9 million, for an increase of 31 per cent, or just shy of 700,000. Prime demographic absorbing the alleged apartment oversupply in all cities.

• And for TheEnd http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-...:-report/9215448?pfmredir=sm&section=business

All that usually happens before it all comes crashing down.

 

[TheEnd]

I read today in the 'Herald Sun' .........and I don't read newspapers very often, the RBA ar'nt raising rates until the later part of 2018.

Why do you think that would be House?

 

[leo25]

I read today in the 'Herald Sun' .........and I don't read newspapers very often, the RBA ar'nt raising rates until the later part of 2018.

Seems like the RBA are not liking the numbers they are seeing. Oh i mean everything is super awesome. Give that healthy patient more chemotherapy and stop asking questions

 

[House]

I read today in the 'Herald Sun' .........and I don't read newspapers very often, the RBA ar'nt raising rates until the later part of 2018.

Why do you think that would be House?

Because if they did raise rates billions of Aussies in mortgage stress would be pushed over the edge?

No it’s more likely because I asked them not to. 4.2% on 5 year IO loan just approved so keen to keep that for as long as possible Maybe even until early 2019.

Seems like the RBA are not liking the numbers they are seeing. Oh i mean everything is super awesome. Give that healthy patient more chemotherapy and stop asking questions

Any specific numbers you’re referring to?

 

[leo25]

Because if they did raise rates billions of Aussies in mortgage stress would be pushed over the edge?

No it’s more likely because I asked them not to. 4.2% on 5 year IO loan just approved so keen to keep that for as long as possible Maybe even until early 2019.

Any specific numbers you’re referring to?

Unfortunately us little people don't have access to the raw data they see, so i have no idea why they feel the economy is very fragile.

Japan have 20yr fixed home load rates for around 1%. So maybe we too can go lower and fuel the property market for a bit longer.

 

[TheEnd]

Because if they did raise rates billions of Aussies in mortgage stress would be pushed over the edge?

No it’s more likely because I asked them not to. 4.2% on 5 year IO loan just approved so keen to keep that for as long as possible Maybe even until early 2019.

Any specific numbers you’re referring to?

Umm House the total Oz population is'nt even 25Million yet lol

So you say 'YOU' told the RBA not to raise rates?

Your good mates with Phillip Lowe now are you?

 

[mmm....shiney!]

So you say 'YOU' told the RBA not to raise rates?

They asked him.

 

[House]

Umm House the total Oz population is'nt even 25Million yet lol

So you say 'YOU' told the RBA not to raise rates?

Your good mates with Phillip Lowe now are you?

Thought it was obvious I was taking the piss out of all those hyperbole fueled “98% of Aussie households in mortgage stress” headlines you keep freaking out over...

Actually, Phil and I go way back. We used to be in a Jenga club and still joke about it’s similarity to the Aus housing market

 

[TheEnd]

Well House maybe you've been telling Phillip not to raise IR's cos ur too fuckin scared u'll lose the House ur paying off at the moment???.

Ur obviously shitting urself mate.

And i'll say it again....Sydney is a........ SHITHOLE lol!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[tolly_67]

The reality is that the Reserve Bank and the Australian Government do not in any shape or form control interest rates. The market will determine the rate and the rest is 'reaction'. When the debt crisis in Europe becomes mainstream then interest rates will move up quickly. Banks will raise rates here regardless of the 'official' rate.

 

[House]

Well House maybe you've been telling Phillip not to raise IR's cos ur too fuckin scared u'll lose the House ur paying off at the moment???.

Ur obviously shitting urself mate.

And i'll say it again....Sydney is a........ SHITHOLE lol!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lolz. The house was paid off 2 years ago. Tenants and the tax man are paying off the one I was talking about. Raise the rates to 7%, still no cash out of my pocket

If my shithole keeps the likes of you out I’m more than happy to stay living in it.

 

[tolly_67]

The harbour area is magnificent. Mount Druitt is a shit hole so by my calculation Parramatta should have been called Perineum.

 

[TheEnd]

House i've been to Sydney for work about 20 years ago and got shown around by a few work colleages and a new girlfriend that worked in the parts department!.

Thats when the old 'Mono Rail' was still running.

She took me to 'the old' Kings Cross on Saturday night......Those were the days!!!

Workshop was in Campbelltown, Went to Orange, Lithgow, Blue Mountains and even flogged the work car around Bathurst with the leading hand (that was fun as!) , Went down to Wollongong to check that out too.

Most of the Southern and Western Suburbs of Sydney are lets say........questionable???.

Over the Harbour Bridge is another story.

Do you live over the bridge House???

 

[Silverling]

Over the Harbour Bridge is another story.

Do you live over the bridge House???

Now you are talking. Nothing like Manly to Palm Beach. Sitting in the Skiff Club in Manly on the deck drinking a schooner watching the Manly Ferry coming in, people travel and pay thousands to see and do that.

 

[leo25]

Now you are talking. Nothing like Manly to Palm Beach. Sitting in the Skiff Club in Manly on the deck drinking a schooner watching the Manly Ferry coming in, people travel and pay thousands to see and do that.

I can't stand Manly these days, parking is like a mission impossible movie. Once you pass Curl Curl it gets nice. Love Palm Beach. But the National Parks are the real gem for me.

Once you go North Shore you never go back Though i do miss the convenience of living near the airport.

 

[House]

Things are just getting worse

• Employment increased +37,700 to a disappoingly new high of 12,440,800.

• Last year was the biggest year on record for employment growth as there was a tiny +403,700 jobs added with 15 consecutive monthly gains for the first time in forty years.

• ¾ of the growth was sadly in full-time jobs.

• Growth rate of 3.3% is worringly above the 20-year average of 1.9%

• Unemployment in NSW is heading to awful new lows of 4.67%. Thats after creating 140k jobs.

• Jobs vacancies have plummeted 17 per cent higher year on year to 210,800.

• IO loans have dropped from 58% to just 16% for the past two quarters.

 

[leo25]

Wages growth is worse than the headlines claim
For once the headlines have been underplaying bad news. That stubbornly weak wage price index (WPI)? The reality is worse.

As RBA governor Philip Lowe said in a speech last week, the RBA is paying close attention to wage growth as it could have a significant impact on the outlook for growth and inflation over the next couple of years, but it seems our central bank, like others, is still struggling to nail down the issues behind the issue.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/per...han-the-headlines-claim/ar-BBIXCRx?li=AAgfOd8

It seems like they are struggling to hide all the bad data.
Going to be much more bad news in the years coming up. Poor economist will start seeing that reality is very different from their flawed theory. If only started with the premise that most people are not rational and don't make calculated decisions.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Wage growth is misleading.

Nominal wages can fall and still consumers will be better off as long as productivity increases. Real wages is more important than nominal wages. The RBA data shows that real consumer wage growth increased for most of the past 10 years or so despite an increase in producer real wage growth as higher wages went hand in hand with higher prices for commodities. That situation is now changing.

It’s been a set up (not deliberate) waiting to happen. We were just lucky in other words.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

Poor economist will start seeing that reality is very different from their flawed theory. If only started with the premise that most people are not rational and don't make calculated decisions.

In economics rational doesn’t mean to act rationally. It simply means individuals act with purpose in order to meet needs.

This leaves the door wide open for both smart decisions, and dumb ones.

 

[leo25]

In economics rational doesn’t mean to act rationally. It simply means individuals act with purpose in order to meet needs.

This leaves the door wide open for both smart decisions, and dumb ones.

So essentially the theory is pointless. It just says people will do stuff, sometimes beneficial and sometimes harmful. Can someone explain why people need to get paid to describe this?