Fed rate expectations

IPDA said:
Correct, after taking a second look I'm a little more on the bear side.
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See post #40 above, rising bond yields are normally bullish for the USD so you may well have to jump back into the bullish camp for 2025. :D

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The wheels are turning??

I'll be watching the 1 May - 30 June time period closely for a possible Fed/Trump Put.
 
Joseph Wang's summary of today's FOMC meeting:


Key takeaway, JPow considers the current hard data to be solid so he won't act until that raises alarm bells. He's afraid of stagflation and that the policies of the government pose a wide array of risks that haven't played out as of yet. So he's not moving yet and is committed to being late. Wang focuses on the labour market a fair bit which suggests that that's going to be Powell's barometer in the future.

Jack Farley from The Monetary Matters Network also has a new video out reviewing today's FOMC meeting. I'll post a brief summary below once i've listened to it.
 
Good to see the FED hold tight, hope the RBA has the balls to do the same.

20%~ increase in house prices for 4 years straight needs to get stamped out, as if left to go on will break the entier economy and continue to erode social structure.
 
leo25 said:
Good to see the FED hold tight, hope the RBA has the balls to do the same.

20%~ increase in house prices for 4 years straight needs to get stamped out, as if left to go on will break the entier economy and continue to erode social structure.
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In the end the OCR just sets the price for the bond market.

Asset price inflation has more to do with liquidity (and government departmental policy in a whole host of other areas) than what the cash rate is set at and I think it's these policy decisions that are eroding the social structure.

So on the one hand you've got departmental policy creating a host of issues in the community, while on the other you've got deliberate RBA monetary policy working in the opposite direction in an attempt to combat the fallout from those political decisions.

Together, both policy directions end up driving up the cost-of-living. Clearly neither policy is working.
 
betterinvestmentthanshare said:
However, it seems government sole purpose is to stay in power at any cost and let the central bank deal with the consequences.
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Yep. Monetary policy has been the main tool wielded over the past 50 years or so.

I think we're on the verge of a change in the dominant paradigm though with a renewed focus on fiscal policy to become dominant. Kind of like a return to a more Keynesian focus as opposed to the Neoclassical or Monetarist policies which have been dominant since about Friedman's time.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Yep. Monetary policy has been the main tool wielded over the past 50 years or so.

I think we're on the verge of a change in the dominant paradigm though with a renewed focus on fiscal policy to become dominant. Kind of like a return to a more Keynesian focus as opposed to the Neoclassical or Monetarist policies which have been dominant since about Friedman's time.
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Any logical person would think the same shiney
BUT……. this logic we perceive is a very different one to those in power.
History shows us that people will always choose the easiest option, it’s human nature, government knows this. No government in power will want to responsible for choosing the hard road necessary for the good of future citizens until they have exhausted every magic trick in the bag( no options left) and even then, politicians want their cake and eat it too (pension for life) so this could go on for quite some time.
 
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