Fed rate expectations
- Thread starter mmm....shiney!
- Start date
The "doing" bit I can understand, it's the "expecting" bit that the market has had wrong all year.
The Fed's actions are not about interest rates, they're about trying to influence the bond market and push bond sales onto the private sector instead of relying on the public sector.
Edit to add: makes sense if you're trying to withdraw liquidity.
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So what does that mean in layman's terms? It hit 105.5 briefly.
I'm neither bearish nor bullish on the USD going forward so just wondering what the outlook is for those who've chosen to not sit on the fence next to me?
IPDA
Active Member
If yields are in fact poised to lower (i.e., the bond market to increase) this would mean the US dollar should lower. Again I’m not 100% on my bias at the moment, but right now I’m leaning more toward a bearish USD, bullish foreign currency, and possibly range bound commodities with some exceptions.
Brandon won't let the economy falter.
He learned alot of adversity all his years as a truck driver and lumberjack.
Not to mention his Special Forces training in Nam.
He's one smart cooter I say and the most perfect for the job next to Emperor Newsome.
He learned alot of adversity all his years as a truck driver and lumberjack.
Not to mention his Special Forces training in Nam.
He's one smart cooter I say and the most perfect for the job next to Emperor Newsome.
Real $ Return
Well-Known Member
Joey B is all bout change...he has the uncanny ability to transform matter from food, ice cream in particular
to deposits in he's trousers 
Lets go Brandon-4 More Years! 
Ok, so you've pivoted from your previous position that the USD will go higher?
The funds rate is beyond his control though, which is what this thread is about. That being said, The Fed and the Executive will attempt to coordinate policy responses so that they're working toward the same outcome.
IPDA
Active Member
Correct, after taking a second look I'm a little more on the bear side.
That makes sense if you also don't think commodity prices will rise
The Brits held steady despite improving situation stating it was not appropriate to drop interest rates before an election.
So much for independence. Left wing deep state!
So much for independence. Left wing deep state!
The Fed funds rate might be beyond his control but he can always bring up climate change, trans rights, abortion debates, corporate greed shrinkflation or gun bans.
Easy to keep the sheeple distracted for an ice cream break so they can change the formulas.
Easy to keep the sheeple distracted for an ice cream break so they can change the formulas.
I've heard from extended family in the UK that prices are out of control there. They are talking about rate cuts??
That's all to do with legislation and it requires Congressional approval and support from the electorate. So if that's what the people want, that's what the people get.
Congress is still a thing?
pmbug
Well-Known Member
Everything the executive is doing is inflationary. They are not helping The Fed at all right now.
Inflation seems to have stabilised though.
The executive branch makes the Fed more powerful by the day.
They are loving it.
They are loving it.
pmbug
Well-Known Member
We shall see. There is a lag between action (like student loan "forgiveness" (ie. taxpayer bailout)) and inflationary effect (increased fiscal debt stress).
Four months on and US inflation is still declining but there are some analysts (Druckenmiller?? et al) alerting investors to a possible resurgence in inflationary pressure at the back end of 2025 due to the noise coming from the Presidential nominees that they are both intent on expanding fiscal policy into a generally buoyant economy.
That's not sound from an economic perspective certainly. Though Trump's tariff policy would weigh heavily on the consumers and may dampen some of that pressure I'm still expecting asset inflation to surge thanks mainly to his tax policy. I'm not as up-to-date with Harris' policies, but I would expect that raising corporate tax rates would lower asset inflation, I'm not sure what her policies around consumers is so can't comment on that.
Source: Trading Economics