Fed rate expectations

mmm....shiney!

mmm....shiney!

Administrator
Staff member
Silver Stacker
Anyone else bored shitless with the ongoing speculation from month-month?

Bond yields jump and stocks wilt as rate cut doubts resurface

U.S. government bond yields pushed to a near four-week peak on Wednesday, lifting their global counterparts and pressuring stocks, as data sowed new doubts about the timing and extent of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Click to expand...

https://www.tradingview.com/news/re...and-stocks-wilt-as-rate-cut-doubts-resurface/

and:

Gold falls as traders hunker down for US inflation print

Gold prices slipped on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields firmed, while investors geared up for a crucial inflation report due later this week that could provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Click to expand...

https://www.tradingview.com/news/re...s-traders-hunker-down-for-us-inflation-print/
 
They'll cut rates, they'll cut rates not.

giphy.webp
 
^^^
don’t forget their free perks! free travels, free meals, free accommodations…and, ontop of that, GET PAID!

No wonder Joe Hockey kept going back for more…thank god he didn’t get that US gig….he would’ve used his ‘daily meals’ on Cuban cigars!
 
bubblebobble2 said:
he would’ve used his ‘daily meals’ on Cuban cigars!
Click to expand...

The old daily meal allowance "scam". Lol.

Travel away from home, get an allowance from your employer to cover all meals dining out, live on 2-minute noodles and instant coffee you prepare yourself in the motel unit, pocket the rest thank you very much.
 
Real $ Return said:
Gotta love the endless line of "experts" and "economists" lined up with different opinions and specialised speculation :eek: 90% of it being wrong and still keeping their overpaid jobs
Click to expand...

Line up all economists in the world, head to tail, and they still could not reach a conclusion!
 
Last edited:
Only way you would ever know is if you can understand institutional order flow and their large money positioning. Rates will remain the same or go higher. There will likely not be a rate cut, which I know is against the traditional general public thinking.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
:eek:

Like our politicians. :(
Click to expand...
Blasphemy good sir ;) i think last year all our oustanding pillars of society politicians got a big raise...even the back benchers chewing gum and giggling at the petulant children squealing like pigs "Mr speaker" and so they should,everyday their selfless decisons benefit all of us contributing to a better brighter world :D Australia "the lucky country" and in no way degrading to our former prison colony standard...AND were all getting $300...Almost a mth of electricity! :eek: truly we are blessed
 
All true my friend, but what amazes me most is that the "market" ie journos, insiders, experts, whatever haven't yet worked out that the only thing that matters is that nothing is going to change. Until it does.

So what happens in the meantime, whether it's across a month, 6 month or a year is largely irrelevant until it's not irrelevant.

In the meantime, stories will get published and markets will run or they won't.
 
Real $ Return said:
Gotta love the endless line of "experts" and "economists" lined up with different opinions and specialised speculation :eek: 90% of it being wrong and still keeping their overpaid jobs
Click to expand...
90% wrong exactly. Higher for longer has been playing out, but according to almost every MSM "expert", rates would be cut by at least June 2024. We are constantly gas-lit with this crap.

The same applies to pretty much anyone in the MSM: car reviewers (or reviews of most things) and then we have "investment influencers". Over-paid talking heads of corporations and gov't or other vested interests.

There is this YT channel and he is kinda entertaining and despite mentioning serious issues in his titles, always ends all nice and positive. It's pretty simple economic stuff. But one thing he does say in his videos which I like is this: "No one really knows where the economy will go, and least of all economists." Touche
https://www.youtube.com/@EconomicsExplained
 
Last edited:
Michael Kay said:
Speaking of gaslighting...
Click to expand...

I think she sums it pretty well, much of what is presented in the media is either based on a misunderstanding of economic principles or a deliberate ploy intended to deceive. I'm in the first camp ie common misunderstandings.

However that doesn't mean that policies pursued by politicians are not deliberate, it just means that the theoretical basis for their decisions is faulty. Just look at the Federal Treasurer's attempts to justify balancing a budget by way of example.
 
Last edited:
I've actually changed my mind on the next rate decision, I actually think they might cut come the next meeting. Positioning of the 5yr, 10yr, and 30yr yields is telling me movement should be poised for lower rates.
 
Yields don't drive monetary policy and Powell will not do a Burns.

No rate cut.
 
Last edited:
mmm....shiney! said:
Yields don't drive monetary policy and Powell will not do a Burns.

No rate cut.
Click to expand...
But they can provide anticipatory insights into what large money is doing and expecting. IMO these three yields are showing at least the want to rebalance inefficiencies and liquidity. Might or might not, but right now that is my bias going into looking at Forex.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top