Crypto Timing

I'm waiting for the next big drop and I want some btc but you just have to be ok with those 80% drops and bubbles inbetween i guess.
See, if my gold did that it would freak me out but the crypto mindset is different.

Maybe I need a trip to Dagobah to visit Yoda while I get that 26k saved up.
Even a quarter would be fine with me.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Time frame?

3 months? 6 months? 1 year? 3 years? The end of Trump's orifice?

Current gold price: USD2858
Current BTC price: USD85900

By the end of August 2025:
Gold: USD3100
BTC: USD146000

Gold price gain 8.5%
BTC price gain 70%

But then I'm not neutral. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

probably will be a trend for a few years yeah
 
IPDA said:
probably will be a trend for a few years yeah
Click to expand...

So you're suggesting that this has been a cycle top for BTC and that new ATHs won't be breeched until after the next halvening?

In the meantime "something" is going to drive gold prices higher but will have no impact on the price of BTC?
 
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Gold priced in BTC has seen a drastic devaluation over time and that deceleration has begun to moderate - everyone knows that.

The chart below show that BTC highs v gold occur about 12 - 18 months post-halving and that the 3 previous halvenings have seen gold post successive lows when measured in BTC. But what is interesting is that currently we're at about the same level as we were post-halvening in May to Oct 2021 and that if the trend should continue then the expectation is that BTC's price would rise orders of magnitude greater than gold's with the yellow metal putting in a new all time low against BTC (the aqua path*) even if it puts in highs measured in fiat.

However, the proposition that @IPDA is putting forward is:

1. that this historical trend has run its course, and
2. will reverse, even until the next halvening possibly sometime in 2028 (see blue path)

XAUBTC_2025-03-02_15-38-09.png

This proposition of course requires a trend reversal which would not only be in opposition to historical price action, but also ignore the impact of government fiscal (which I would argue is a known) and monetary policy and any regulatory changes in the finance industry. The only way I could see his scenario pan out would be a massive dislocation of the world's current economic condition ie war and then it will still remain to be seen how the price of BTC reacts to that devastating outcome.

* the forecasts are just illustrative.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Gold priced in BTC has seen a drastic devaluation over time and that deceleration has begun to moderate - everyone knows that.

The chart below show that BTC highs v gold occur about 12 - 18 months post-halving and that the 3 previous halvenings have seen gold post successive lows when measured in BTC. But what is interesting is that currently we're at about the same level as we were post-halvening in May to Oct 2021 and that if the trend should continue then the expectation is that BTC's price would rise orders of magnitude greater than gold's with the yellow metal putting in a new all time low against BTC (the aqua path*) even if it puts in highs measured in fiat.

However, the proposition that @IPDA is putting forward is:

1. that this historical trend has run its course, and
2. will reverse, even until the next halvening possibly sometime in 2028 (see blue path)

View attachment 93595

This proposition of course requires a trend reversal which would not only be in opposition to historical price action, but also ignore the impact of government fiscal (which I would argue is a known) and monetary policy and any regulatory changes in the finance industry. The only way I could see his scenario pan out would be a massive dislocation of the world's current economic condition ie war and then it will still remain to be seen how the price of BTC reacts to that devastating outcome.

* the forecasts are just illustrative.
Click to expand...

Yes, this is what I see happening. Although I know it's hard to see right now, I believe this could be a long-term reversal. What is very surprising to me was the accuracy in which the low was formed. Not only this, how and where it did was important to me, and moving forward how order flow has respected the inversion of the curve indicates a signifcant shift. The most important was WHERE it moved away from, it was a very specific algorithmic principal used when new lows or highs are formed.

I know this sounds crazy, but just wait and see. I would anticipate now that the inefficiencies are going to be sought after, and there is many. My intermediate target on XAUBTC is 0.12, further than that possibly 0.4.

Knowing what I know about Bitcoin, $TOTAL, MicroStrategy, and XAUBTC, I believe Bitcoin may be experiencing potentially a long-term top. It's not a popular opinion I know. But right now I'd stick with buying gold.
 
Thanks. I'll edit the chart above to reflect a price of 0.12 BTC/oz gold over the next "few years". I'll put in a path to 0.4 in the same timeframe.
 
Given this weekly close remains as is on XAUBTC, I'd anticipate the next weeks of price to see larger range appreciation against Bitcoin. I say this, as the weekly shows an immediate rebalance, which indicates pricing is spooling quickly to close in any inefficiencies - super bullish signal.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Thanks. I'll edit the chart above to reflect a price of 0.12 BTC/oz gold over the next "few years". I'll put in a path to 0.4 in the same timeframe.
Click to expand...

I decided against it, the key point is not the price but the speed it takes to get there. Obviously that depends upon whether BTC has hit it's all time high for this cycle or not. Too hard to represent.
 
It'll probably rally from here, but next month it's going to crash big. Given XAUBTC continues it's path.
 
Got one , and is paying for the rest of down.
The timing is right and only bought a week ago and she is still climbing. While the rest fall.
 
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