Crypto Timing

What a brutal day for crypto it was for those that drove the prices to the highs.

I’ve made good money from crypto, lucky enough to have experienced 2 bull runs which got me thinking…..it’s so easy…..too easy and thanks to our tax laws I can offset any losses against wins to reduce tax, in some case eliminate tax.
The only way I can continue this greatest gig is hope for others to keep driving the price up and for whales to dump, rinse and repeat. There is no other logical explanation I can come with it. It’s crazy.
The only thing now is, how long will it last before the majority realise the game.
Profiting off the misfortune of others, it’s more profitable than the insurance game.
BTC is NOT digital gold, it’s nothing like gold.
 
betterinvestmentthanshare said:
The only thing now is, how long will it last before the majority realise the game.
Click to expand...

Most don't realise. A few understand it, some don't, and there's a select group of hardliners who still think it's just a scam designed to transfer wealth from the gullible.

Edit: pretty much the same as most don't understand how loans are created.
 
How do you value any cryptocurrency? It's like saying gold is cheap or expensive. It's not like you can calculate NAV in the same way you can a company that issues shares.

Brute forcing legacy valuation metrics onto digital assets just doesn't cut the cake.
 
IPDA said:
Obviously I agree with you, but what makes you say cryptocurrencies are overvalued right now?

Not many people see this sentiment, so what makes your opinion?
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I am looking at the charts which give the indication of the market depth. I am not saying it is overvalued.
What goes up must come down. Whether they are artificially inflated?
You need to look at CMC to understand this as There are some sort Algorithm that will adjusting the prices.
Some of us think, The theory of coins moving all in tandem?

What I believe and will react to The Algorithm, I will try to keep one step ahead.
You need to studies more on the candlestick charts, which will give you more indication.

At the moment I am not touching any BTC.
Probably the price will come down in the period of 6 months to a year.

There are $$$ to be make , if you know how.
In the values of $$$ or numbers of coins. ( quantity )
 
Golden ChipMunk said:
I am looking at the charts which give the indication of the market depth. I am not saying it is overvalued.
What goes up must come down. Whether they are artificially inflated?
You need to look at CMC to understand this as There are some sort Algorithm that will adjusting the prices.
Some of us think, The theory of coins moving all in tandem?

What I believe and will react to The Algorithm, I will try to keep one step ahead.
You need to studies more on the candlestick charts, which will give you more indication.

At the moment I am not touching any BTC.
Probably the price will come down in the period of 6 months to a year.

There are $$$ to be make , if you know how.
In the values of $$$ or numbers of coins. ( quantity )
Click to expand...

Agree with a lot of this, cryptocurrencies are probably one of the most manipulated assets. Which is surprising to me because it's sold as an asset that has no centralised control, and yet the price is controlled lol.
 
IPDA said:
Agree with a lot of this, cryptocurrencies are probably one of the most manipulated assets. Which is surprising to me because it's sold as an asset that has no centralised control, and yet the price is controlled lol.
Click to expand...
This is a contradiction in terms. By definition, manipulation would require centralisation or centralised control. Otherwise you would have to call it coordinated, and coordinating anything money or price related without incentives sounds very difficult.
I feel more comfortable saying that the price of gold is manipulated using derivatives and bullion banks than saying the price of BTC and ETH to be manipulated (low market cryptocurrencies would be a different matter).
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
This is a contradiction in terms. By definition, manipulation would require centralisation or centralised control. Otherwise you would have to call it coordinated, and coordinating anything money or price related without incentives sounds very difficult.
I feel more comfortable saying that the price of gold is manipulated using derivatives and bullion banks than saying the price of BTC and ETH to be manipulated (low market cryptocurrencies would be a different matter).
Click to expand...

I’ll provide example when I’m home. It is manipulated though, there is no doubt about that. The way all cryptos move in tandem shows, like you said, some degree of coordination in pricing. But I’ll give specifics when I’m back and you can backtest it and see that I’m right.
 
For study to confirm manipulation takes place:

1. Look at $TOTAL - this is the only chart you need to know about when determining bias and daily direction on crypto.
2. Outline N.Y. Midnight Open on the chart for each daily candle - this is the algorithms guage at determing short-term premiums and discount. If price is above the midnight open (i.e., fair value of the daily range) and enters a premium array, this is a selling opportunity.
3. Note the asian session (6:30PM - 12:00AM N.Y), and the new york session (7AM - 12PM N.Y.). The Asian session is the accumulation phase of the daily range, where primed lows are formed. The New York session is typically the reversal session of the daily range. Don't believe me, go and check for yourself.

Anyways, because of these are true, crypto is manipulated. Likely by an algorithm, that follows time-based and logical if statements - which I've provided guidance for above.

Saturday and Sunday have different parameters, and are the most unique days of trading because no other asset class trades these days.
 
IPDA said:
For study to confirm manipulation takes place:

1. Look at $TOTAL - this is the only chart you need to know about when determining bias and daily direction on crypto.
2. Outline N.Y. Midnight Open on the chart for each daily candle - this is the algorithms guage at determing short-term premiums and discount. If price is above the midnight open (i.e., fair value of the daily range) and enters a premium array, this is a selling opportunity.
3. Note the asian session (6:30PM - 12:00AM N.Y), and the new york session (7AM - 12PM N.Y.). The Asian session is the accumulation phase of the daily range, where primed lows are formed. The New York session is typically the reversal session of the daily range. Don't believe me, go and check for yourself.

Anyways, because of these are true, crypto is manipulated. Likely by an algorithm, that follows time-based and logical if statements - which I've provided guidance for above.

Saturday and Sunday have different parameters, and are the most unique days of trading because no other asset class trades these days.
Click to expand...
I think you're confusing correlation with manipulation for the top 10 cryptocurrencies excluding stablecoins for obvious reasons.
Just because an aggregated index moves in a direction does not allow the conclusion of manipulation to be drawn. Saying the ASX 200 going up or down means that stock prices are manipulated is similarly an incorrect conclusion
 
Polar.bear.Stacker said:
I think you're confusing correlation with manipulation for the top 10 cryptocurrencies excluding stablecoins for obvious reasons.
Just because an aggregated index moves in a direction does not allow the conclusion of manipulation to be drawn. Saying the ASX 200 going up or down means that stock prices are manipulated is similarly an incorrect conclusion
Click to expand...

You clearly have not backtested what I’ve just told you.

Yes, just because an index moves up and down would not draw a conclusion to manipulation, but how price moves through specific intervals during the day, and how it responds to the New York midnight opening price is very specific details that if backtested will show incredible precision.

Backtest it and tell me I’m wrong, you will see how precise you can be.
 
What's next coming?

The Global M2 Money Supply predicts a BIG MOVE is coming for BITCOIN

This is some sort of measurement. You need to see the chart to understand.
 
M2 is often used as a measure of liquidity. From my reading it is useful but has limitations. Michael Howell is the guy to search for if anyone wants more info on liquidity.

From FRED, by the looks of the graph below, M2 had declined for a period post-COVID, but it is on track to resume it's inexorable rise from pre-COVID (see my annotation). I am no expert at all so don't take this as gospel.


fredgraph (1).png

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS#

It bottomed out on 30 October 2023 (20,523), which interestingly was around the exact time that a number of market analysts were calling the bottom of the US stock market. And these were calls made in Q4 2023, rather than many months later in hindsight. Pretty impressive as it turns out I reckon.
 
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